PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

Need help on a river play. I hate what I did.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

BB ($81)
UTG ($249.3)
UTG+1 ($171.95)
Hero ($384.1)
MP2 ($174)
MP3 ($62.55)
CO ($198.8)
Button ($199.05)
SB ($239.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($8) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7.6</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $7.60, CO folds.

Turn: ($23.20) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, SB calls $15.

River: ($53.20) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>.

Hero's move?

Also. Who thinks a raise on the flop is best?

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

Make a pot-sized raise.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

Make it $40 and fold to a push sounds ok.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

I would hate folding to a push, since the nut flush might do this, hoping to trap open trips. So, I would only raise, if I was wlling to call a push. If you are not willing to call a push, just call, and minimize your winnings / losings. It may be weak tight, but I see it as a mean/variance preference issue.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

I think you need help on the flop play. Can you even count how many scare cards are possible on the turn? You could be up against any sort of pair+gutshot, the player behind you could overcall with a pair+gutshot, OESD, overs+gutshot... bloody hell that's a mess. If I don't raise that flop it's because I have a super-great reason not to based upon specific knowledge of my opponent's play, and you didn't provide any such explanation.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

I agree. I think that with four limpers you have very little definition on their hands. SB could easily have 810, or 99 (depending on how loose or tight he is), or J9. He could also have 88 and be taking a stab at the pot. He could have a jack or he could have nothing. The point is that you just don't know and I feel that by the river you are in a lot of trouble because you have given his hand no definition. I think it is either a call or a fold on the river but I am generally tighter when it comes to this. I might call this but I would have to know more about the villain.

edit... after looking at the betting more closely, it looks more like either a jack, or a straight, not a full house. I would probably throw in a small raise on the river. if he pushes... i still might call it. so basically, i'm completely changing my opinion.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would hate folding to a push, since the nut flush might do this, hoping to trap open trips. So, I would only raise, if I was wlling to call a push. If you are not willing to call a push, just call, and minimize your winnings / losings. It may be weak tight, but I see it as a mean/variance preference issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of all his likely holdings, nut flush is way down there.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

SB might have been likely to limp with a J8 or J7 call, if your not willing to call him all-in as he might be hoping to trap.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

After the hand I tried to figure out why I didn't raise the flop. I couldn't come up with a good reason. I didn't have any reads on my opponents. I had only been at the table for 20 minutes or so and was watching Cheers. But yes, next time I won't be an idiot and raise the flop.

Re: PL $200. Flopped set, rivered boat
 

Your opponent likes the Jack. Raise a big enough amount so that he/she be forced to make a crying call with a non-full house jack.