Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

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Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% > 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

How about just flat calling and folding to a CO bet with an overcard flop?

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack.


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Without any more information I consider the raise to be weakness (I'm better than BB but I want a way to get out if SB picks something up.)

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I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.


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Well clearly this depends on point 1.

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I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.


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True.

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Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.

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Well first of all I don't think it's a large percentage of the time. Second, no, not by much, since if BB folds his 150 chips away, he's darn near busted anyway.

eastbay

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

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Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% > 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay

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Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB. CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]


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That's ok, I thought he minraised. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB.


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Maybe right.

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CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

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All true. Seems like a reasonably close decision, all said.

eastbay

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

I would call here, not push, just flat call.

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

If you just call, and BB calls:

The pot will be $2,185. The CO will be getting great pot odds on his hand when you push in your remaining $395 post-flop. If the flop comes K 9 4 rainbow can you fold to a bet from CO? If you fold, you have $395 remaining. If CO wins and BB is out, you're ITM but almost definitely 3rd. If you fold, CO loses, now you're the short stack, and almost done with only $395. If you call his bet (or he calls yours), you're getting 4.5:1 pot odds and you probably have the best hand. Just push pre-flop or fold. (I'd push).

If you and BB call, you have to push post-flop. Even if CO calls and beats you, you're something like 75% versus BB's random hand, so you'll still get third. So just push.

If you call and BB folds, then I could see folding post-flop to survive, but I still couldn't based on the pot odds I'm getting, and the fact that I'm probably the in the lead anyway.

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

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For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
 

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btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

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For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

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On the flip side, if you push, there is a chance that the CO will fold. I'd guess that the BB is more likely to push in his remaining 130 chips with the blinds at 75/150 than CO would be to call the all-in.