Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

Level 6 (100/200) of a $20 buy in tournament on pokerstars. There are about 140 out of 550 left.

I have about ~T2800 chips left, the average is about T4600 at this point.

The table has been playing very tight/timidly for the most part. I have won a lot of pots without showdown and many many small preflop raises have gone around with everyone folding. I think that my table image is pretty tight although I have been caught in a couple of what might have seemed like bluff attempts (like folding to reraises). Up until several hands before I was one of the chip leaders. I raised and then called an all-in reraise with AKs that went down to runner-runner flush from A3s. This left me
one of the short stacks at the table.

For the hand in qustion I am in CO and my hole cards come QQ. Folds around to a MP limper. I raise to 600 and the limper calls (everyone else folds).

Flop comes: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

villian (not sure if that is proper terminology) checks. I bet 600 into the T1500 pot. Villian calls. (Villian started the hand with T7000 btw)

Turn comes: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villian bets T1000. I have about T1600 left at this point so if I'm calling, I'm going all-in.

I thougt about it for a while and I eventually folded (without showing) because I didn't think he would bet without something. I couldn't see him calling with something like A9 or lower, it just didn't fit my thoughts about him. That left (in my mind) only hands that could beat me (trips, quads, overpair, etc.) In retrospect, an A-high flush draw (or something similar) could have been a possiblity but it wasn't something I seriously considered at the time.

In any case, after I folded, Villian shows me: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

...So I want to be a better player and I know that what is most important is whether I made a good decision, not the fact that I probably would have won had I not made that decision.

I'm concerned because one of the thoughts that was going through my mind was I didn't want to go out in a large (for me) buy in tournament when my opponent could so easily have a hand that beat me. I had worked so hard to try and not make rash decisions up until that point and I didn't want to just lose it all in one dumb click. I know that this fearful psychology could be clouding my judgment but I don't think that it necessarily means I made a bad decision. Hence, why I am really unsure.

Thoughts? Would you have played the hand differently? How and why?

Re: Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

Well how many get paid...being a poor (not having money) player not necessarily bad, I understand your dilemma. If the top 120 or so get paid then I can see folding although I probably would've said either he has me or he doesn't. If its any higher than 120 like top 75 then go all-in b/c you are either going to be blinded out b4 you hit the 75 or will need some miracle cards to get to that point.

Re: Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well how many get paid...being a poor (not having money) player not necessarily bad, I understand your dilemma. If the top 120 or so get paid then I can see folding although I probably would've said either he has me or he doesn't. If its any higher than 120 like top 75 then go all-in b/c you are either going to be blinded out b4 you hit the 75 or will need some miracle cards to get to that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it was actually top 54 get paid (further away from the bubble than I thought actually). I guess it just seemed near the bubble since we had been playing for a long time.

I wasn't folding because I wanted to squeak into the money though, I just thought I could build my stack back up. I do believe this was one of the pivital hands though (which is why I posted it). I ended up going all-in preflop several hands later with TT against AKs (which I wouldn't have done if I hadn't had a short stack). I do think that had I doubled up I would have been in good position to get paid but my thinking was more along the lines of: 'you have enough money, no need to be rash, play your game, wait for the right conditions.'

I have had problems in the past with just acting too quickly and going with my adrenaline instinct. I guess I should make sure not to over-correct and be too timid though. It's really hard to see where that line is (for me at least).

Re: Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

i'd say you're usually beat there. i don't mind a fold at all.

Re: Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

You need to decide what you will do against this player if a A or K comes on the flop when you raise.

Villain probably doesn't limp AK in late mid position so most likely he has one or the other. (In general, there are alot more hands that limp ace than limp k).

What kind of bet do you think you would make if you had the K? At least 1/2 the pot.

Will villain respect your bet, or does he expect you to bluff him a fair % of the time? Probably villain will believe you have a king.

Will villain try to bluff you if you check it down? Have you made good calls in tough situations?

Will villain think that he will get to see the river for free if he calls a flop bet? Probably

Does villain think hero is afraid of the bubble? Probably.

I bet about T1100 on the flop.

Re: Folding QQ near the bubble with an overpair and a pair on the board
 

Some of the things you said made a lot of sense I think.

I definitely would have bet the flop regardless of whether I thought I had the best hand or not (as that is what I did in most of the pots I won without showdown) so I don't think my bet indicated any kind of a strong hand from me (i.e. villian might feel easily able to push me around with a big bet compared to my stack).

I like your bigger bet on the flop. He probably would have either folded or reraised that amount. Since my hand was vulnerable maybe a fold is the best I could hope for in that type of situation. If he had reraised I would have still folded probably but I don't think that would be a bad fold.

With my T600 bet, if he had a strong hand, he probably would have reraised but not necessarily so maybe it doesn't tell me that much(i.e. not a good bet)? ...At the time I suspected he might have been slow playing, trying to get me to call but I think that was probably a dumb thought.

...I usually have pretty standard amounts (not really on purpose, that's just how it turns out) that I bet and raise in these types of situations but it's really amazing to see how differently hands could play out depending on these types of things.

hmmmmmm.