I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

......but maybe i am wrong. what do you think?

UTG here is 56/1.4/0.8 over 65 hands. i have yet to see any of his SD hands.

SB is like 35/8.
BB is 22/15/2.5 and a bit of an overaggro spaz.



what is the proper play here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, folds to hero who does what?

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

I think its close. I'd raise and see what happens. 65 hands at 1.4 PFR means nothing.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

I'm assuming you're button, right? Actually doesn't matter, i'm folding this to someone with a 1.4 PFR %. I'd say this is AA/KK 70+% of the time.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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65 hands at 1.4 PFR means nothing.

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??

bobby, i would just fold this. here's the pokerstove against a way bigger range than 1.4%

1,448,609,184 games 3.969 secs 364,980,897 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 55.2044 % [ 00.55 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo, QJo }
Hand 2: 44.7956 % [ 00.44 00.01 ] { 88 }

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

Stupid AggroHushPoster messing with my head again. Believe me, what I say in here and what I do at the tables are not always the same. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Thanks for the pokerstove.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

3bet, not close imo. pokerstove does nothing to tell you how often you flop sets in short-handed aggro games, which is approx 4:1 against. flop the joint vs. this monkey and you're a [censored] rock star.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

[ QUOTE ]
3bet, not close imo. pokerstove does nothing to tell you how often you flop sets in short-handed aggro games, which is approx 4:1 against. flop the joint vs. this monkey and you're a [censored] rock star.

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Did I ask for it or what?

Seriously tho, we have an equity deficiency against someone raising 15% too. Fold against them?

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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3bet, not close imo. pokerstove does nothing to tell you how often you flop sets in short-handed aggro games, which is approx 4:1 against.

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it is? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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3bet, not close imo. pokerstove does nothing to tell you how often you flop sets in short-handed aggro games, which is approx 4:1 against.

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it is? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Is this third-level sarcasm, or only second level?

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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I'm assuming you're button, right? Actually doesn't matter, i'm folding this to someone with a 1.4 PFR %. I'd say this is AA/KK 70+% of the time.

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I disagree. It's strange, but the people who rarely raise do not necessarily raise with only the top hands. In fact, sometimes these very same players like to get clever and limp with AA-KK, etc.

Also, here it looks like the villain is not especially aggressive post-flop.

I would 3-bet here.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

Raise or fold. Calling obviously sucks. Most of the time I'm folding this against someone with a PFR of 1.4 but I don't think 3 betting is bad.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

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Your 7:1 to flop a set

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

1.4 PF-r. I really don't think this is close at all. Fold it.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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1.4 PF-r. I really don't think this is close at all. Fold it.

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small hand sample, this isn't a reliable range.

True

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

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Your 7:1 to flop a set

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i thought it was 8.3:1 to flop a pair to set...

Where you get 7:1 from?

Id 3bet or fold, Calling is my least favourite.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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He'll have big aces as often as he'll have a pair that crushes you. 3-bet and outplay him after the flop.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

Posting blind.

I 3bet. You don't really have a ton of hands on him, so he may be less passive than he appears. Also, there are tons of idiots that love to limp AA/KK, sometimes even stuff like AKs, so I think restricting him to that range is not a particularly good idea.

With that in mind, you should be able to get away from bad flops pretty easily and take him to the house on good flops. A lot of this is dependent on his WtSD, though. If he loves to table his cards, I'd be more inclined to fold.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

odds of flopping a set:

1 - (48/50*47/49*46/48) = 0.11755102 ~= 1/8.5

or about 7.5:1 against

edit: I fold this

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

He probably isn’t raising anything that you'd love to play against. Therefore, fold.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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lol. What does this mean? You are certain he has KK/AA so you're going to bet/raise/3-bet/cap the flop and turn to get him to make a sick fold on the river?

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 7:1 to flop a set

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i thought it was 8.3:1 to flop a pair to set...

Where you get 7:1 from?

Id 3bet or fold, Calling is my least favourite.

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(50 choose 3)/((2 choose 1) * (49 choose 2)) - 1 = 7.33

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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He'll have big aces as often as he'll have a pair that crushes you. 3-bet and outplay him after the flop.

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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UTG here is 56/1.4/0.8 over 65 hands.

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VPIP converges much more quickly than PFR. Therefore, I put more credence in the fact that he is definitely loose than that he is necessarily passive pre-flop.

Notwithstanding the aggro big bind, I three-bet my pocket eights here with position.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

I 3 bet. You have position, and villian's range isn't necessarily going to be as tight as his stats seem to indicate.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses. Oh yeah and if he hit's, you're screwed.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses.

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For the last time, this range is waaaay too tight.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.

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I seriously doubt it's THAT far off. 65 hands is 11 orbits. Surely some blind steals, opportunities to open in MP with QJ etc. have come up.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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lol. What does this mean? You are certain he has KK/AA so you're going to bet/raise/3-bet/cap the flop and turn to get him to make a sick fold on the river?

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No, if I was certain he had AA/KK then I would fold. I don't think he has only AA/KK, so therefore I 3bet and outplay him post flop. If he has one of those hands I will find out, if not, he will likely fold after he misses the flop.

If I had 1000 hands on the guy, I would fold, but I have seen a lot of people with these same stats after a small sampel raise some junk hands, and play very strange pf.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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lol. What does this mean? You are certain he has KK/AA so you're going to bet/raise/3-bet/cap the flop and turn to get him to make a sick fold on the river?

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No, if I was certain he had AA/KK then I would fold. I don't think he has only AA/KK, so therefore I 3bet and outplay him post flop. If he has one of those hands I will find out, if not, he will likely fold after he misses the flop.

If I had 1000 hands on the guy, I would fold, but I have seen a lot of people with these same stats after a small sampel raise some junk hands, and play very strange pf.

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This kind of arrogance and reasoning is setting you up to lose a lot of money.

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

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Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

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Your 7:1 to flop a set

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i thought it was 8.3:1 to flop a pair to set...

Where you get 7:1 from?

Id 3bet or fold, Calling is my least favourite.

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(50 choose 3)/((2 choose 1) * (49 choose 2)) - 1 = 7.33

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nerd

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 

i thought like 10 years ago in this thread i posted our hot/cold equity versus a huge range with this hand, and we were still 10% in the hole. we can't make it up against this guy's range, 65 hands or not.

what's the deal with everyone saying "it's only 65 hands"?

he has raised once in 65 hands. let's let this go.