10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

Live 10/20 at Borgata 12/2/05, game is insanely loose. Hero's image is tighter than most everyone at the table, not that most players are even thinking much about that.

BB in this hand is very loose pre-flop and loose/semi-passive postflop. He's shown down TPNK many times when clearly beat, and appears to not be thinking about much beyond his own hand. LP player is loose, crazy, and a funny guy. He'll 3-bet sometimes PF with 8 high just for kicks. He takes great pride in running people's aces down (which he's done several times already), and is sitting with a stack of about $2K -- 4x his initial buy in. The fact that he's running so hot has him sticking around in many hands he's got no business calling in. That said, when he is undeniably beat with few outs to win, he will fold on occasion.

Hero is MP holding AsKd
UTG folds, UTG+1 limps, 1 fold, Hero raises, some folds, LP calls, button and sb fold, BB calls, limper calls.

Flop (4 players, 8.5SB)
Kh9s4c
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, LP coldcalls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn (3 players, 7.75BB)
8h

BB bets, Hero...

I tend to think this is an easy raise, but a 2+2er who (for reasons of sounding horribly weaktight IMO) in the game (sitting out of the hand) discussed the hand with me later on and said Hero should've called with an intention of getting an overcall from LP and then re-evaluating on the river... either calling there or raising unless something seriously strange happens. Your thoughts?

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

Was the other 2+2er Brettbrettr (I think he posted a hand from this game from around that time)...

Because if so whatever he said is probably 100% wrong...

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Was the other 2+2er Brettbrettr (I think he posted a hand from this game from around that time)...

Because if so whatever he said is probably 100% wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate Ivy Leaguers. And, fyi, it wasn't me. I was the guy with 2k running down aces.

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

This is really tough in my opinion...

I think we need to answer two questions:

1. How does our hand stack up against BB? What percentage of the time do we think we are beating BB here?

2. What kind of hand is the LP funny guy likely to have? How much equity does he have? Do we want him confronting a single or double bet?

Question #1: The 8h does not seem hugely likely to have helped big blind unless he has 98 (though I doubt he'd bet this into the pfr as he's passive) or K8 (I'll assume he's not playing 84 often). Some percentage of the time he is simply betting out again with a K because the turn is a blank.

If he'd usually only bet out with hands that beat us, raising makes very little sense as it's likely to get the hand heads-up with a hand against which we are drawing thin.

The more often he'd bet out with a weaker hand the more appealing raising is, clearly.

Question #2: The guy behind us is getting almost 10-1 on a call, which he needs just barely over 4 outs on average to call the turn correct. So any 5 out type pair hand is clearly getting odds to call, gutshots basically are with implied odds (though this is not that likely). Weaker Ks do not have odds to call though they may anyway.

The ultimate point I see is that because the pot is pretty big the LP players overcall is generally not going to be that profitable for us in the long-run. He'll be breaking even or close to it a large percentage of the time. In my opinion his presence greatly encourages raising. (Another thing to consider is that he may have a hand like JT that'll put in any number of bets on the turn but fold the river).



So my basic conclusion is that raising is probably better if we think that there's any reasonable chance we're beating the EP dude. Since we aren't likely to get three-bet since he's passive, I like it more.

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

You say he's not thinking beyond his own hand, does that include betting out when he improves rather than check-raising? If he gets in line with a bit of aggression, then I don't mind the calldown.

(How did you not find me and get me into this game?)

edit: Damn, I forgot abut the other guy. I was talking with a friend the other day about a similiar spot with better players. I said if you bet the turn, I'd have to raise because of the guy behind me. But I wouldn't be happy about it.

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

This is a ridiculously easy raise. You shouldn't be worried about the overcall from LP b/c you want him out of the pot. The pot is 8.75 bbs on the turn and its time to kick LP out of the pot and take it for yourself. If go for overcalls, lp will be calling correclty w/a ton of hands.

What does BB have? He can have a lot of hands including Kx w/a worse kicker or XXh where he just picked up a flush draw in addition to his pair. I see this move all the time from fish who are so worried about you raising for a free card then donking the turn w/a weaker hand. Raise here to get it HU and bet any river. If he bets into you on the river call and expect to lose.

One caveat to this line is if he's the type of tricky guy who will bet/3bet the turn. This is a much more advanced move and one I do not think he is likely to make.

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

A follow-up:

Because of what we can say about our relative status vis-a-vis the hand behind us, and the fact that many of the hands that are beating us have us drawing quite thin (any set or K high two pair), I don't think there are tons of situations here where I really like just calling down. If we don't think we're ahead of the EP guy often enough to merit putting in a raise, a large percentage of the time folding is going to be better.

The only time I would like calling is if EP guy is a maniac, in which case I call down to see a showdown for 2 BB and not open myself up to having to put in 4 BB or more to showdown a hand I'm committed to showing down.

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

If it helps in your analysis, I was nearly 100% sure I was ahead of the LP guy at the turn.

The 2+2er was not brettbrettr, and the LP funny guy was an older gentleman named "Mac" who plays on Party. Nice guy, but not the sharpest knife in the drawer poker-wise. I have every intention of finding him on there and buddy-listing him (I've got his screen name). BTW, I was wearing a black partypoker hat while playing in this game, in case anyone else was there.

As for the turn decision I had to make, there was no way I'm folding, so its raise or call. For reasons already stated by W.Deranged, I was very weary of letting "Mac" call cheaply on what was probably a draw of some kind. Could be flush, could be straight, could be 66 with a "set draw" (you laugh, but this action was consistent with his play some of the time), whatevah. That said, I was also very concerned about being wb to the BB. Him donking me once was no big deal, it just meant he liked his hand generally. But calling me and then donking me again on a relatively insignificant turn was not ordinary for him, at least as far as I could tell. My inclination was to put him on one of 6 hands (in order of likelyhood): K8, K9, K4, K-trash... perhaps sooted in hearts perhaps not, 89s, Ah4h, 94. A few others were possible, but not really very likely (QQ/QJs/JTs/44/99/88 -- he'd likely play all of these very differently). Of the 6 hands I had in mind, I'm ahead of two (K-trash and Ah4h) and behind four. I have outs against them all.

There are 6 ways to make K8, 6 ways to make K9, 6 ways to make K4, 9 ways to make 94, 1 relevant way to make 98s (I dont think he'd bet into me with just a pair of 9s and no BD draw on the flop) -- a total of 26 hands that have me beat. OTOH there are 56 ways to make one pair K-lesser kicker and 1 way to make Ah4h, so I'm ahead of more hands than I'm behind. The hands I'm ahead of seem less likely than the ones I'm behind, so I guess we can weight the 56 hands at about 50% and get to 28 or so.

For this reason, I think a raise is good. It'll be for value sometimes, it will shut LP out sometimes, and we'll almost never be 3-bet. We do lose an extra BB when we raise & are behind, but not if we get a free showdown (and we decide we want one). Calling down also waves a huge red flag to the few observant players in the game that they can semibluff the [censored] out of Hero and knock him off some pots later on that are "his."

Re: 10/20 live AK - decisionmaking at the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
A follow-up:

Because of what we can say about our relative status vis-a-vis the hand behind us, and the fact that many of the hands that are beating us have us drawing quite thin (any set or K high two pair), I don't think there are tons of situations here where I really like just calling down. If we don't think we're ahead of the EP guy often enough to merit putting in a raise, a large percentage of the time folding is going to be better.

The only time I would like calling is if EP guy is a maniac, in which case I call down to see a showdown for 2 BB and not open myself up to having to put in 4 BB or more to showdown a hand I'm committed to showing down.

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3-bets were rare on any street in this game, except when one or more players held sets or better. Coldcalling, however, was extremely common. The game was insanely loose passive, with only a few players injecting aggression. EP was not a maniac, but just an unsophisticated fish, and I would rather never play poker again than fold this turn against the opponents I was facing.