Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

Help Me. Felt kinda lost on this one.


Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks,

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero...

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

Tough one. You have 3 clean outs for sure (2x6s, 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and 11 more if villain is on a flush instead of trips (2x7s, 3x5s, 3x3s, 3x4s). Trouble is, his play doesn't indicate one over the other, and the pot is just big enough to make being wrong sting. I know... thanks for the recap. Give me second, I'm thinking. The pot is offering you 7.25:1 on a 2.3:1 draw, which means that you're getting a pretty good return from pot odds alone if he's on a flush. This seems to offer you a reasonable margain for error. Since it seems equally likely that he's on either hand, we want to be getting at least twice what we need to justify the draw... which is easily the case here if I've counted correctly. Add in the times he's on the set and we still out draw him and I think we're golden. Or at least gold plated.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

Played well to this point.

I'm pretty sure I'm folding this turn. I just can't see how you're hand can possibly be good at this point and you probably don't have many outs.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

i would call to see the river. you have a ton of outs to 7x.. including discounted flush, gutshot, and boat potential. your flush must be discounted by 17 x holdings (7, 5's, 3's, higher flushes, 3 other x ranked cards). 17/45 would be your flush discount... i could do the rest and figure out what the odds are laying, but I think its enough to call.

on the river, you may want to call down unimproved. a 5 may have gotten frisky or he may be stealing.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

I think the key in this one is what you put his opponent on. I would say either a made flush or trips are by far the most likely hands, leaving hero drawing to either 2 or 4 outs.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

straights and flushes beat trips, hero is drawing to both (albeit discounted based on the x in the villian's 7x holding). he has many more outs than you give him credit for. even if he flashed a 7, I think hero can still make the turn call.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

[ QUOTE ]
even if he flashed a 7, I think hero can still make the turn call.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he flashed the 7, I'd definitely make the turn call. It's the flush and gutshot straight (majority) outs being no good I'm worried about. I'll admit that a call may be in order on the turn, but I think it's far closer than it appears.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

also, he has 5 outs against a made flush (7, 7, 6, 6, 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). the pot is laying 7.25 to 1 and he's getting odds of *EDIT* 39 to 5 or about 8 to 1. its only slightly -EV and the straight flush and 6 should both get decent action. the 7 won't. i think this slightly -EV flush potential is offset by the likelihood of a 7 in villian's holding.

I agree its close and I don't like being on the river facing only 1 more bet after not improving.

*sorry for all the edits [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] its 8 to 1 against the flush.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

If he has a flush (most likely), you can improve to a full house or the straight flush, so I've got you at about 11%, which is not worth a call unless you think he'll give you a ton of action on the river.

If he has the trips and a higher heart, you can additionally go to a straight, which puts you at about 14%, which is now a marginal call.

If he has heartless trips, you can also win with the flush, which puts you around 30%, which is a clear call.

No wonder you felt lost!

With the uncertainty about his hand opening the possibility of losing even more on the river when you improve to a lesser hand like a straight or lower flush or at least not being able to bet it aggressively, then I think this is a fold.

Re: Poorly Played Pocket Sixes
 

the rest of the hand plays out like this...

...Hero Folds.

I thought this was very weak at the time (and so didnt include it so as not to taint responses), but I thought I was up against at least a 7, probably a flush. turns out villain in this hand was a gambooler, and played lots of cards (he had only recently sat down, and I didnt know this), so with that read, I'd probably call down. as it was, I ditched it.