99 overpair vs LAG + unknown
 

This is from fairly early in a Party 50+5, 270 started, 160 still in. Avg stack is about 1700.

The flop bettor (BB) just got to the table 2-3 hands ago. Last hand with blinds 15/30, he made it 200 UTG with AQs and called another 1300 from an MP push. (He beat TT, and thus has a big stack.) He might well be leading out figuring the flop missed everyone, but that AQs hand is the only one I've seen him play. He could have a flush draw, a 5, a 7, maybe 66/88...I just don't know.

Flop raiser (UTG+1) is very laggy, with most of his lagginess coming after the flop. He's done a bunch of pushing with 2PNK, or one overcard+backdoor flush, or nothing. I don't give him credit for a 7 here, and any pair better than my 99 would certainly have been raised pf. (The one exception would be a missed limp-reraise. This was the first limp I'd seen him make in 30-40 hands.)

MP2 and SB have been at the table long enough to know about UTG+1, but neither of them much concerns me. MP2 _might_ overcall with TT/JJ but I can't be too worried about that.

Do I have a clear call here? I'm a little nervous about making it but as I think about it more I'm not so sure I should be.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

saw flop

MP3 (t1290)
CO (t230)
Button (t760)
SB (t1135)
BB (t4290)
UTG (t4875)
UTG+1 (t1570)
Hero (t1835)
MP2 (t1575)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero calls t30, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t1540 (All-In)</font>

Re: 99 overpair vs LAG + unknown
 

Autocall.

Re: 99 overpair vs LAG + unknown
 

I don't think I can fold fast enough here. That's too much action to you to be complete misses. No raise PF=random hands in play.

If you chose the path of set value, what makes this so hard to fold?

Re: 99 overpair vs LAG + unknown
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you chose the path of set value, what makes this so hard to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

In short: the BB could have basically anything, UTG+1 likely has a worse "anything", and I have a good hand. BB might have a 7, but he could have so many other hands. UTG+1 is a total moron. MP2/SB might have me beat, but MP2's going to have a hard time overcalling without trips or better since he has a pot bet and 2 pushes ahead of him.

As it turns out MP2, SB and BB folded and I was well ahead of UTG+1. I'm trying to get the weak-tight out of my game, and my instincts are that this should be (as adanthar said) an "autocall". Right now it's a "think, then call" but it's getting there.