Two Plus Two Older Archives - Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

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Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

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Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

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Think of it this way if behind you have between 2 and four outs you are almost never drawing dead here. Some % of the times you are actually ahead here so calling down doesn't actually cost you 2bb's. -EV probably but not anywhere near 2bb's worth. Also you gain important info on villian's post flop play which you must not have since you are asking what to do here. On the flip side folding costs you the same 1bb that checking the turn and calling his river bet does and the pot is not large. Sometimes you fold the best hand when playing optimal poker. Weigh the pluses and minuse of each and decide what you feel is best.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

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Bets and calls down if you think villian will c/r with a worse pp or draw or bets and folds if you think villian will only c/r with a 9 or straight. Checking is a bad option IMO.

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I think checking is an ok option if we don't know how to react to a c/r from the villian. Yes we give a free card to KQ or AJ or something that has 6 outs, put the post is small and we make that up by not being face with a c/r and maybe getting a bet on the river from a KQ/AJ hand that might have folded the turn.

If I had a strong read on villian though and felt more comfortable with what do with a c/r I think we have to bet though.

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Hi Tehox i couldn't disagree more. What are we so worried about here getting outplayed or moved off the best hand? No reason to give this guy infinite odds to draw or not gain value from a worse made hand than ours. FWIW if he is drawing he pays a bet on the turn not on the river. If he misses i doubt he bluffs at the river all that often into a pot this size. If he does c/r and hero decides to call down he gains good info on how this guy plays post flop what he calls open raises with from the sb etc etc which could help him later in a pot much larger than this one. Checking because you fear getting check/raised here is just bad poker IMO.

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Hey seanc, in your first post you say either bet/fold or bet/call depending on read. But all we have it PT numbers. So you're saying bet/call is your default against a player with these numbers?

Anyways I think betting the turn here is correct against most opponents and I would bet if I had played this hand. Not sure what I would do if c/r though.

But I do think that checking behind the turn is a viable option, especially against a tricky/aggressive opponent (that for example might c/r us with trips or flushdraw or PP), for the reasons I stated above, though your points are well taken. And with JJ I think we have to worry a lot more about giving free card than if we have KK.

So basically I'm just clarifying that I'm not saying "Check because you fear getting check/raised". I'm saying that check b/c it might be the more +EV play, though personally I would need a better read that villian is that type of tricky aggressive player other than PT numbers to check behind here.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

I think you have to call down. I think there's a reasonable chance he could be semi-bluffing with diamonds+overs or betting a worse 2pair.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

bet the turn and call it down.
river a J just to rub it in.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

u can probably rule out him having 9s since he's so tight preflop.

bet the turn. if c/r'ed call him down. i'd be surprised if he has a 9 here.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

I would bet the turn.

I think checking is only good if you're sure this guy will always fold a worse hand to a bet, always bluff at the river if you check it through on the turn, and never check-raise with a worse hand. That's a pretty big parlay.

I'd also call it down after he raises. I think you'll see 77-TT or 6x more than 20% of the time. After all, you've probably got AK, right?

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

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I would bet the turn.

I think checking is only good if you're sure this guy will always fold a worse hand to a bet, always bluff at the river if you check it through on the turn, and never check-raise with a worse hand. That's a pretty big parlay.

I'd also call it down after he raises. I think you'll see 77-TT or 6x more than 20% of the time. After all, you've probably got AK, right?

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I agree with pretty much everything you say and I'm starting to think that checking behind is pretty much never right at these limits without a super read. Don't know if it was a mistype, but one of the reasons to check the turn is that he would c/r with a worse hand, but at the correct percentage that we are screwed whether we call or fold. If he never c/r a worse hand we can safely fold to a turn c/r.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

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Interesting responses.

I think I'll throw in the next piece of the puzzle for kicks...

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

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3-bet the turn. check/call the river.
if capped- fold.

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I don't think this can be correct. The reason so is what % of the time do you think we're ahead when he c/r us? For a 3 bet to be correct, we have to have the best hand >50% of the time which IMO is not the case.