Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

When villian (no reads yet) caps pf then starts check-calling on a raggedy flop like this I have to assume my high cards are best, right? Would others have played this the same way?


Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666"></font>. UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot:

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

Preflop: Perfect. Yay button!

Flop: Good. UTG+1 probably would've bet an overpair. So far, no reason to think AK isn't best here. Also, your bet did very well in removing the MP limper from the hand. Your odds of winning with ace-high are much better, as a result.

Turn: I don't have a problem with betting here, strictly because we're in position and have been checked to. I've gotta believe AJ would have bet in this situation. I think this bet is often for value.

River: Well, I guess he didn't have AQ either. Looks like you're splitting to me or he drastically overplayed a small pair (between threes and sixes). I think a river bet is good here because you may fold anything that can't beat jacks or queens. If you get AK to fold, that's fantastic.

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

What hand does the nut-nothing beat here, considering that there is a Q and a J on the board? Piddly dick.

Betting this river is rampant spewing. Check and prepare to either lose or chop. Bizarro play by UTG+1 regardless.

-K

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hand does the nut-nothing beat here, considering that there is a Q and a J on the board?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point. I think we're up against AK here most of the time. Betting with a 0% chance of AK folding has an EV of 0. But if there's a nonzero chance that AK will fold -- and I think there's actually a pretty good chance he'll fold, considering how instantly passive he became -- betting the river is a +EV play.

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

true, but a moderatly passive post flop player with tt/99 could play the same way...sure the pf cap is kinda gimp, but it wouldn't shock me either. An AQ shooting a CR or chickening out might do the same. I like the river check.

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

[ QUOTE ]
true, but a moderatly passive post flop player with tt/99 could play the same way

[/ QUOTE ]

This would have to be one hell of a pushover not to bet an overpair, don't you think? And even if we actually have found the world's most passive poker player, you don't think he ever folds to river aggression with two overs on the board?

Re: Unimproved AK vs sudden passivity
 

I agree he should bet it, but don't think he nessisaraly will. A bet on the river might be +ev, but I don't think it is hugely so.