stealing than hit weak ace
 

This hand occurred in the 2/4 NL game on Stars

UTG posts $4BB+$2SB and checks. I raise to $16 with Ac7c to try and steal the larger pot. Everyone folds but the poster. Flop comes Qc 8d 8c giving me a flush draw. Opponent checks and I bet $30 to follow through.

Opponent calls. Turn is an ace and opponent leads out for $100. We both started the hand with about $400. What is my best play here?

Suppose I call, and the river is a blank. Opponent bets $200.

Paul

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

If you call and the river is a blank, I think you can most certainly fold when he bets $200. He's got you beat.

Ryan

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

IMO

you're behind on the river 30% of the time
you're ahead on the river 30% of the time
and you'll chop it 40% of the time

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

I think you should fold the turn

you dont have much implied odds with flush on paired board and it's fairly unlikely for your opponent to have lower Ax

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

Am I the only one who thinks pushing wouldn't be a terrible move?

Villain checked preflop, and then called a raise...and then also smooth called the flop. I don't think he has AQ. He COULD have an 8...but I think alot of the time an 8 would raise raise the flop. Or at least bet out.

Then an ace hits...and he bets. Due to there being no raise preflop or on the flop, I can't give him credit for AQ or A8. Maybe he has a weak ace, maybe he has some kind of draw now with the ace. MAYBE he has AK, but the preflop limp might suggest he doesn't.

The more i look at it, it seems he's trying to use the Ace as a scare card...I push, expecting many hands to fold. If he calls, there's a good chance at a chop, and even if he's ahead, you have outs unless he holds A8 or Q8.

However, if you don't like pushing, then I'd fold.

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

I fold turn. What does your opponent have? Could be an 8. Could have AQ and bets out hoping you have AK and will pay off. Could have boat. Not a great spot for you.

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

Well you nailed it traz. I called the turn and folded the river and the opponent showed J9 for a missed gutshot.

I figured he was slowplaying an 8 and would not make a river bet like that without an 8. I thought that after I called the turn he would check it down if he had an ace. In fact, that is what I put him on, on the turn.

Paul

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

I call the river.

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks pushing wouldn't be a terrible move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like pushing the turn too. Good chance you're ahead, and even if you're not, it's very unlikely that he's full, so you have lots of outs.

Re: stealing than hit weak ace
 

pushing doesnt seem like the best option. If both of you have 270 left, I would probably call down for two reasons.

If he does have an 8, you are behind in the hand with many outs left, so call and then make a river decision, which will most likely be a call, since the pot will lay 2:1 at that point. It does seem like he's representing that 8 though.

If he had a hand like 99-TT, or a pair lower, he's drawing to 2 outs, and may bet the river, especially if he has a hand like 66-22, trying to push you off a Q.

THis hand is troublesome since that A is a scare card and there is also a big made hand on the board so you're unsure, given your weak flop bet, if hes bluffing the A or extracting value with his 8. So... I would call down given the number of outs you have if you're behind and the few outs he has when you're ahead, you might as well extract value when you're ahead by calling twice and not raising and making worse hands fold which are behind a lot.