battle of blinds on bubble
 

BB had been reasonable/tight.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t790)
Button (t2340)
Hero (t1575)
BB (t3295)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, hero?

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Pushes and it isn't close

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

push

u gain 20% of ur stack if u steal...he'll call with &lt;20% of hands if he's being reasonable/tight

i'd feel better about it if he had the 2200 stack, not the 3k stack, but it's still +ev to push, so push it

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

For me, this is an insta-push. I don't have eastbay's calc here so I can't run the numbers, but I think this is pretty clear.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

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Woot @ gut instinct!

I really should buy SnGPT though.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

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that's a pretty ridiculous statement to drop without saying villain's calling range.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

is it -ev for any calling range of opp? or only for certain calling ranges?

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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is it -ev for any calling range of opp? or only for certain calling ranges?

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i promise it's not -EV for the range of "villain folds everything."

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

well, yeah

but i'm more interested in which ranges...cause he said 'slightly negative' which makes me think most ranges may be slightly positive

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

I'd push that every time against any reasonably tight BB.

I would bet his calling range is extremely tight here - high pocket pairs or A with good kicker... I think you take those 300 chips over 95% of the time against this guy making this an any 2 push.

But then again some well respected SNG'ers have said fold on this thread so don't take my word for it...

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

as a seperate question, what would your calling range be? assume i've been average in terms of aggressiveness.

i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

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I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

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My blind defense is a lot weaker than my blind stealing right now but what you listed was right about where I would draw the line.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

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My blind defense is a lot weaker than my blind stealing right now but what you listed was right about where I would draw the line.

rvg

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did you run sngpt for that range? also, what do you think an average villain's range will be there? i'd guess a little looser, but i'm not sure.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Well SNGPT doesn't give you ranges - it does give you templates but really the ranges that people call with are based on so many factors so really it is experience that tells you what their range might be in any given scenario. SNGPT lets you analyze results based on the ranges you determine for each player.

I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well SNGPT doesn't give you ranges - it does give you templates but really the ranges that people call with are based on so many factors so really it is experience that tells you what their range might be in any given scenario. SNGPT lets you analyze results based on the ranges you determine for each player.

I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards.

rvg

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maybe some confusion.... i was asking if you ran sngpt for whether it's correct to push a6 against this range:

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i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ,

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and then a seperate question of what range an average BB will have.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Those were examples. The BB probably calls with A7, KT, QJ, 55... that's getting towards the range. I'm not exactly sure.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you. Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you.


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Prick. That aside:

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Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

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Did you even pay attention to stack sizes at all? Nearly the entire BB's calling range dominates you, and your M here is over 6. You don't need this pot. There will be better spots. I would rather raise UTG with the 2nd place stack in the BB with A6o than here.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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maybe some confusion.... i was asking if you ran sngpt for whether it's correct to push a6 against this range:

and then a seperate question of what range an average BB will have.

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ok - yes I used SNG power tools for the calculations to confirm my initial thoughts and when I said "I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards." replace goes with calls. I was referring to what they would be calling with from the BB.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

cool, thanks.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you.


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Prick. That aside:

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lol. I would push this with any 2 against a tight player in this situation for the reasons I mentioned but I also appreciate other opinions and the reasoning behind them, like Durron's.

rvg

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

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I have always tended towards first in my finishes. I think I play the bubble quite well thank you.

This is at best a slightly positive EV push. It is definitely not "clear".

And do you have to phrase every thing you say in the most condescending way possible?

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always tended towards first in my finishes. I think I play the bubble quite well thank you.

This is at best a slightly positive EV push. It is definitely not "clear".

And do you have to phrase every thing you say in the most condescending way possible?

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Sorry, bad habit I picked up in these forums with all the elitists running around. And, um, "it's not even close, do you see why?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

I don't know why someone said that it was -ev given a certain range, because if you use any of the preset ranges, even maniac gives you a slightly +EV. Considering that he is not alway a maniac, it becomes even more +EV (proportionate to what read you have on him). Given that I can not see folding this. Your worst case scenario is +EV (granted very slightly) and the other scenarios are more +EV. To me this seems like as clear a push as any.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

Does it not have to be greater than 0.5% EV from the SB to be profitable though?

PS This is a clear push by the KS chart. So even if you threw your cards face up he'd be wrong to call

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

WTF is M?? Plz dont tell em to buy the book.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

M=your stack divided by (bb+sb+antes)

if u have M&lt;5, then u are in the red zone, 5-10 is orange zone, 10-20 is yellow zone and 20+ is green zone...he talks about how u can play differently depending upon what zone u are in, etc

those 5/10/20 are inflection points

he also says to multiply M by % of people left if &lt;10 at table to get 'effective M' but that won't apply in sngs

otherwise if u have 5k chips with 4 left on table and 100/200 blinds, ur effective M would only be 6.67, which is too low for having 5k chips on the bubble in an 8k chip sng

so just use normal M, which is basically how many times around the table u can last before busting from blinds/antes

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

It doesnt calculate what range BB will have. YOu estimate that and you can see whether a certain push is +EV, or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.

The numbers for your hand"

If villian calls top 20% which is 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+
Your range to push which is +.5% EV or greater is
Push hands: 55+,A9o+,A8s+ (11%)

Villian calls w/ top 15% 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+
Push hands: 44+,A7o+,A3s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs (17%)

Villian calls w/ top 10% 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
Push hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,82+,73o+,72s+,62+,52+, 43o,42s+,32s (97%)

You mentioed

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

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77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

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Durron, very good analysis. You could also add in that if the blinds were bigger, say 150/300, this is also now +EV. This is just another example of how complex this game can be, so many minor variations, and it changes the whole landscape.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+

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This is about what I was thinking.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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It doesnt calculate what range BB will have

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right.... b/c it would need to be psychic.

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or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.


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why isn't the default 0%? if pushing is better than folding by $0.000001, i want to push. (in fact, i would give up a tiny bit of equity b/c of hourly rate considerations. also pushing is fun.)

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77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.

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what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

if pushing is better by .000001, then you shouldn't wanna push, as you can pick a better place to increase your ev...u should be better than your opps...and you may be mistaken on ur opps' calling range

Re: battle of blinds on bubble
 

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In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.

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why should we have a bias towards folding? if we believe it's +.1% we should obviously push. ICM already takes into account the fact that bubbling is bad.