An interesting break decision
 

I'm going to leave Kolmogorov's name in because I think it's important it's him. He's one of maybe 3 5/10 players I think might be better than me. We'd been playing HU for a little while and he's shown down a bunch of 7s. f is new to the table.

Hand at La Grande ($5/$10 Triple Draw 2-7)
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Kolmogorov is at seat 0 with $1105.
p is at seat 3 with $175.
f is at seat 4 with $195.
timprov is at seat 5 with $293.
The button is at seat 3.

f posts the small blind of $2.
timprov posts the big blind of $5.

timprov: Qc 5c Qs 4h 2c

First Round:

Kolmogorov raises to $10. p folds. f
re-raises to $15. timprov calls. Kolmogorov calls.


f takes 2 cards. timprov takes 2 cards.
Kolmogorov takes 1 card.

timprov: 5c 4h 2c Kd 8c

Second Round:

f checks. timprov checks. Kolmogorov bets
$5. f calls. timprov calls.

f takes 2 cards. timprov takes 1 card.
Kolmogorov stands pat.

timprov: 5c 4h 2c 8c 7s

Third Round:

f checks. timprov checks. Kolmogorov bets
$10. f calls. timprov calls.

f stands pat. timprov ??

Rest of the hand in white:

<font color="white">

timprov takes 1 card.
Kolmogorov takes 1 card.

timprov: 5c 4h 2c 7s 3d

Final Round:

f checks. timprov bets $10. Kolmogorov
folds. f calls.



Showdown:

timprov shows 7s 5c 4h 3d 2c.
timprov has 7 5 4 3 2.
f mucks cards.
(f has 9c 5d 4d 3h 2h.)


Hand #8513841-7717 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $110.
timprov wins $108 with 7 5 4 3 2.
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Re: An interesting break decision
 

What's his pat hand range here in position seeing f at 2 and you at 1? Interesting hand. Holding out on the results til later.

Re: An interesting break decision
 

I totally misread this hand this morning, didn't even know f was in there pat.

I snap this pretty much every time.

Say you're in Kolmos spot here and you make a smooth 97 after the first draw, do you play it the same in position?

Re: An interesting break decision
 

No, don't break. Consider all lines for turn (bet, c/r, c/c).

Big edit because I misread where the action stopped.

Re: An interesting break decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

Say you're in Kolmos spot here and you make a smooth 97 after the first draw, do you play it the same in position?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, unless for some reason I opened without a deuce. With neither player folding, I draw.

Re: An interesting break decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, don't break. Consider all lines for turn (bet, c/r, c/c).


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought pretty hard about this before deciding to check, and call + break if f called. In the end I felt because it was multiway Kolmo was very likely to have at least an 8, and there aren't many I'm ahead of. Part of this decision was that he had been drawing excessively smooth (IMO) when we were HU.

Among other things this is a "why not to use advance action buttons" hand. I had already selected the 8 and the draw button before f acted, because his pat hand was entirely unexpected. I may have chosen to stand pat once I saw he had.

Re: An interesting break decision
 

Kolmogorov didn't cap it predraw with a 1 card draw. His hand isn't as good as you're afraid it is, almost certainly it includes an 8. "f" doesn't have you beat, he checked and called before the last draw. You can figure that your 87542 is good about 50% of the time against K. (Look at all the one card draws that include an 8. Most of them fit this pattern - four cards to improve, two ways to a better 8 then yours, one way to a 9, and one way to a worse 8.) I don't like breaking this hand up when I think you win ~40% of the time ("f" draws out one of you 20% of the time) by standing pat. I also don't like checking and calling with a pat hand at this point. It gives K a ridiculously easy value bet with any better hand and you never win more money when you're ahead.

You should raise this street.

You have two opponents who will call your bet when you're winning. You only get three bet by hands that you know for sure you can break against. Putting in two extra bets on this street does suck when you are losing, but I think thats very rare case - there are very few hands K started with that now make a 7.

Basicaly, I think the pot is big enough that breaking your hand isn't worth the risk of losing the pot when your hand was good. Once you decide that, I like betting your marginal hands out of position, which includes checkraising this street and betting the river.

Re: An interesting break decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kolmogorov didn't cap it predraw with a 1 card draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! I entirely missed that. Everything else follows.

Nice analysis. Post more.