Two Plus Two Older Archives - JJ

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- - JJ - flop all-in call (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403519)

JJ - flop all-in call

I had a meaningless preflop stats read, nothing else against this guy. FWIW, he bought in for $50. I reasoned that my heart outs are good 50% of the time against a higher PP, and he could be donking it with AK-AQ, and so I called. FU Party poker for not having a timebank.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($60)
UTG ($149.65)
UTG+1 ($104.90)
MP1 ($119)
MP2 ($99.15)
MP3 ($98.80)
Hero ($189.60)
Button ($105.40)
SB ($120.58)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, BB raises to $9, MP1 calls $6, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $35, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $50, BB calls $15 (all-in).

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I'm pretty sure he has AA/KK here. However, if he has no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (50%) you are looking ok with 14 outs. If he does have [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] though you are sitting on 6 outs. I guess if you think he has AK/AQ sometimes it might be ok, but I don't think he's even bothering to bet this flop without either A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a pair, so I would just lay down.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I don't think you're ahead here very often, but as long as he's not holding a larger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have a pretty nice draw. Why no reraise pf?

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

I think it's most likely a coin-flip at best or your dominated at worst. If your two assumptions are valid (ie your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good 50% of the time and he will make this play with hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] some non trivial percent of the time) it's very close IMO.

Considering only overpair with heart / no heart it's slightly worse than a coin flip if the distribution is 50/50:

15,107,211 games 16.056 secs 940,907 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.5234 % 48.22% 00.30% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 51.4766 % 51.17% 00.30% { JdJh }

---

16,534,511 games 17.106 secs 966,591 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.0963 % 78.79% 00.30% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 20.9037 % 20.60% 00.30% { JdJh }

---

You're average equity is 36% or needing approx 2.78:1 to push.

If your FE is zero (which it likely is), you're getting 130:50 to push approx 2.6:1, so you're not quite there.

Now if we consider he makes this with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] even 10% of the time you're now breaking even:

10,930,720 games 12.437 secs 878,887 games/sec

Board: Th 8h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.8152 % 43.51% 00.30% { AhKc }
Hand 2: 56.1848 % 55.88% 00.30% { JdJh }

Equity = .45(case 1) + .45(case2) + .1(case3)
= .45(51.5) + .45(20.5) + .1(55.9)
= 23.175 + 9.225 + 5.59
= 37.99 or approx 2.63:1 to push.

So if he does this 10% of the time with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're now at zero sum EV.

I probably call this in the heat of the moment but it's very close, and much depends upon if your [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] really is good 50% of the time and he's willing to do this without an overpair. If he's got both you're in bad shape.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

He only has 15 left.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

just a question for you guys - do you attempt to make estimates at these odds equations in your head during the hand?

i know it isnt so hard to sit down and think about it, but youve got a hot 20 seconds max to act.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($30.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $35, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $50, BB calls $15 (all-in).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the fact that BB overbet makes it very very easy for him to have AA no heart. I'm calling with 14 outs and dead money.

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call and spike the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is my preferred play here.

What's with the $15 raise? Just put him all-in [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

He only has 15 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: JJ - flop all-in call

Mostly it's the 4 on the flop / 2 on the turn rule for counting outs. Perhaps Rainman could do this PokerStove during a hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Main decision here is how often the heart outs are good. If they're good half the time, this is a toss up. Add that to the chance he's donking with overs + one heart and you can talk yourself into a call.