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-   -   Ravens vs Browns (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=408041)

12-31-2005 12:04 AM

Ravens vs Browns
 
Ravens are -3 against Cleveland. Cleveland is at home but can anyone find any reason not to bet the Ravens?

bills217 12-31-2005 01:54 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
It's a meaningless Week 17 NFL game?

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland is at home but can anyone find a reason not to bet the Ravens?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland is at home

[/ QUOTE ]

Scruff 12-31-2005 02:16 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked out pretty well the last two seasons.

This week it works out to Baltimore -1.2. They do account for the fact that the Ravens have been playing better of late, though maybe not enough. Cleveland is 3-4 at home, and Baltimore hasn't won a road game all year - and my 'system' gets to the 1.2 using just a standard HFA.

You were asking for reasons not to take Baltimore, there you go . . .

DougOzzzz 12-31-2005 02:21 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
Fez thinks the Browns will be +3.5 by game time. So if you like the Ravens - take them now. If you like the Browns, then wait.

DougOzzzz 12-31-2005 02:22 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked out pretty well the last two seasons.

This week it works out to Baltimore -1.2. They do account for the fact that the Ravens have been playing better of late, though maybe not enough. Cleveland is 3-4 at home, and Baltimore hasn't won a road game all year - and my 'system' gets to the 1.2 using just a standard HFA.

You were asking for reasons not to take Baltimore, there you go . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Football Outsiders is a great site. I don't think their ratings are near perfect for predicting future results, though. Especially in the last week, where there are a plethora of other factors in play. I have no opinion on the right side of this game, though.

lastsamurai 12-31-2005 02:33 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
I like the ravens in this one. They are playing momentum for next year...

Baltimore is going to be one of my money teams next year....Keep an eye on them in 2006.

McGahee 12-31-2005 02:47 AM

Re: Ravens vs Browns
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ravens are -3 against Cleveland. Cleveland is at home but can anyone find any reason not to bet the Ravens?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kyle Boeller on the road - hey there's 2 reasons.


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