Does this situation exist?
 

In a head-to-head situation, you're ahead after the flop, but are still an underdog if the hand shows down.

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a head-to-head situation, you're ahead after the flop, but are still an underdog if the hand shows down.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA vs. 15 out draw. The draw alone is 54%.

AA vs. flush draw + str8 draw 56.26%


13 outs is 48%, but an extra pair make this 58.59%:

AA vs. flush draw + gutshot + pair 58.59%


This draw is almost a 2-1 favorite:

AA vs. str8 flush draw + pair 64.65%


This one wouldn't be > 50% without the 3-str8:

AA vs. flush draw + 3-str8 + pair 52.53%


Here are some more with small pair vs. 1 or 2 bigger cards:

33 vs JTo + str8 draw 50.61% (33 has backdoor flush draw)

33 vs. JTs + flush draw 53.84% (33 has gut shot)

88 vs. A5s + flush draw + gut shot (1 over card) 54.74%

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

Good stuff.

Thanks, Bruce

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a head-to-head situation, you're ahead after the flop, but are still an underdog if the hand shows down.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA vs. 15 out draw. The draw alone is 54%.

AA vs. flush draw + str8 draw


13 outs is 48%, but an extra pair make this 58.6%:

AA vs. flush draw + gutshot + pair


This draw is almost a 2-1 favorite:

AA vs. str8 flush draw + pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Make it an underpair facing 2 overcards and a str8 flush draw and the pair only has 28% equity:

Link

This is the worst case scenario I could find.

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s Kd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Jd 710 71.72 274 27.68 6 0.61 0.720
3s 3h 274 27.68 710 71.72 6 0.61 0.280

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

I added some examples with a small pair vs. 1 or 2 bigger cards to my original post. Also 1 with a 3-str8.

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

This one is slightly worse, since it prevents split pots...

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8d Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s 2c 274 27.68 716 72.32 0 0.00 0.277
Kh Qh 716 72.32 274 27.68 0 0.00 0.723

-RMJ

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

Damn,

When I thought of the question, I figured it would be 22 against an open-ended + four flush, but I didn't realize the latter could be "such" a big favorite.

Re: Does this situation exist?
 

Even better: You flop the nuts, but are still a dog:

pokenum -h 6d 7d - tc jc -- 5h 8c 9c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 8c 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7d 6d 465 46.97 525 53.03 0 0.00 0.470
Jc Tc 525 53.03 465 46.97 0 0.00 0.530