tough 55 hand
 

No reads. Villain seems fairly tight preflop and has folded the blinds several times.. I hate the turn bet. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($99)
CO ($101.40)
Hero ($98.40)
SB ($34)
BB ($139.70)
UTG ($107.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $10</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($21.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($21.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $12.

River: ($69.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $104</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $173.50

Re: tough 55 hand
 

If villain is fairly tight pf a min-reraise followed by a check oop in a KQx flop scares the hell out of me.
Do you have any idea what he thinks of you? Have you been raising a lot from the button?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

may be the wrong move but i am pushing, or at least 3betting, that minraise.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I think a bet 15-17 on the turn is much better.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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may be the wrong move but i am pushing, or at least 3betting, that minraise.

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I think this one of those situations where I would do that and regret it after analysing the hand later.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Why not 3 bet that turn? KQ isn't going anywhere.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

snipes: KK and QQ aren't going anywhere either, kiddo.

and KQ doesn't min-reraise preflop.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I bet more on the turn and 3bet his raise. As played I call the river. The only hand I am worried about is QQ (KK is also possible, but very unlikely). He could also have a flush. I cant find a fold here.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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Do you have any idea what he thinks of you? Have you been raising a lot from the button?

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I've been there less than 30 hands. I've opened from the CO a few times and taken it down. But my image is still tight. I was trying to isolate the crappy CO player, and this was my first raise with limpers. So I don't think he was playing back at me preflop.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I rather like most of the line, outside of the weak turn bet. I fold this river as well, as the whole thing reeks of a higher set. I guess AK is a possibility too, but I really doubt AK would check twice on that board.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I think villain could of easily backdoored into a flush with hearts and think you have a king or something. Is he the type to semibluff this turn? He could also have something like AQs and have thought his hand was best.
I'd put him on QQ, a flush, or trips kings most likely (It is weird to check the kings twice I agree).
I dont like folding here to an unknown, you said you only hand 30 hands on him. What does the massive overbet from this player make you think?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Can you explain your reasoning for the small turn bet? Was it to induce action? I think I 3-bet this turn. River is tough.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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What does the massive overbet from this player make you think?

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At .5/1 I find it is usually close to the nuts (atleast at party).

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I'm betting the turn a little harder and sure as hell 3-betting

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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I'm betting the turn a little harder and sure as hell 3-betting

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it seems so obvious the guy has KK or QQ, 3beting is ...bah

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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Can you explain your reasoning for the small turn bet? Was it to induce action? I think I 3-bet this turn. River is tough.

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It was a stupid turn bet. I think I should have checked the turn and called any river. I was trying to bet an amount that AK-AQ could call down, and still get away from KK-QQ. I don't understand why everyone wants to go broke on this hand... Whould someone really play AK or AQ this way? AA is possible, but KK-QQ seems way more likely.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I was originally going to say 3-bet the turn, but then I reconsidered after reading Fallen Hero's post. Now I put the opponent's range at: AA, KK, QQ or AK. Each equally possible.

AA = 6 ways
KK = 3 ways
QQ = 3 ways
AK = 16 ways

So, there are 22 hands you beat, and 6 which beat you.

This sounds like value-bet time to me. Which brings me back to 3-betting.

Who agrees or disagrees with my range &amp; my line?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was originally going to say 3-bet the turn, but then I reconsidered after reading Fallen Hero's post. Now I put the opponent's range at: AA, KK, QQ or AK. Each equally possible.

AA = 6 ways
KK = 3 ways
QQ = 3 ways
AK = 16 ways

So, there are 22 hands you beat, and 6 which beat you.

This sounds like value-bet time to me. Which brings me back to 3-betting.

Who agrees or disagrees with my range &amp; my line?

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even if they are all equally possible I think AK and AA fold to a turn 3bet while KK and QQ stack you, so I don't think there's any value in that.

PS: I don't think they are equally possible but it isn't an easy situation to quantify so I'd probably just do the same math you did and keep a mental note that the situation isn't as favorable as the math will show

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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I think AK and AA fold to a turn 3bet

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How often?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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I think AK and AA fold to a turn 3bet

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How often?

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well, I'd fold 100% (unless I had AKh, wich we know by the river villain doesn't have). If I have to give a number I'd say at least 75% of villains fold AK and AA here, do you disagree?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Well, I think I do disagree. I think AA and AK might fold to a 3bet, not not normally. Putting anumber on it, I'd say AA and AK fold 25% of the time.

Now, who's right? That's the question...

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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Who agrees or disagrees with my range &amp; my line?

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Although there are more combinations of AA/AK vs KK/QQ, doesn't the action in the hand indicate that KK/QQ is more likely?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I think you can throw out the combos for AK. This really doesn't smell like it.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Sure, maybe. But can you quantify that at all?

For example, let's atart with the assumption the the opponent flopped a set of QQ. He open-checked both the flop and the turn. Obviously he doesn't want to "lose customers."

NMow let's give that same guy AA and flop him an overpair. Does he still not want to lose customers? What if we give him AK and flop TPTK?

Of the later 2 cases (AA and AK), I think it's less likely that AK will be afraid of losing custommers, but it's still quite possible. How possible? 50%? Less/more?

Whatever value you come up with, you can simply multiply that by the 16 ways he can have AK, and you can use that adjusted value to compute the EV of your varoius lines.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn

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Why?

Re: tough 55 hand
 

this isn't the board that you want when you call the PF reraise. i'd probably check behind the turn and see what happens on the river. value bet, if checked to. call if bet at.

you don't have to play monster pots with every set you hit when it's probable that you're behind. the check on the flop after the reraise is almost always top set. AA and AK bet this flop 100% of the time.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn

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people love to slowplay, specially on a pot that was reraised pf

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Hero is on the button, so BB may suspect a steal, though unlikely given the read on him being tight preflop.

On the turn there are two flush draws on the board, if he had a set would he really check and min-raise, risking giving such a cheap draw at it !? Maybe.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

Villain's line really looks like he backed into a flush draw on the turn, maybe with a gutshot or a pair too. I wouldnt really worry about KK here, as its very unlikely, but QQ is a possibility. Checking a set here twice is so bad, but I suppose villain could do it. I still hate your river fold. You think you arent good here over 50% of the time.

Re: tough 55 hand
 

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this isn't the board that you want when you call the PF reraise. i'd probably check behind the turn and see what happens on the river. value bet, if checked to. call if bet at.

you don't have to play monster pots with every set you hit when it's probable that you're behind. the check on the flop after the reraise is almost always top set. AA and AK bet this flop 100% of the time.

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Re: tough 55 hand
 

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On the turn there are two flush draws on the board, if he had a set would he really check and min-raise, risking giving such a cheap draw at it !? Maybe.

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People don't think about odds. They think, "Hey, I have a monster, I don't want to chase anyone out, so I'll minraise"

Re: tough 55 hand
 

I think your line is ok. I think its an easy fold on the river as only a complete and utter donk plays AA or AK this way.

The only improvement in the line would be to check behind on turn. I know no hands that reraise preflop to 10 BB and checks that board twice that you're beating. So a check on the turn allows some1 just playing back at you preflop to bluff on the river and most importantly to minimise your losses vs KK/QQ.

I think the massive bet on river might be him putting you on the flush, just hit it and he might think that you won't be able to get away from it