Fold equity worth a shot?
 

5/5 Game lots of regular. sb blind is player of intrest. Very tight and protects his hands aggressively stack 1200. 5 limp including me with A9s mp stack 1300.

Flop 9c 8s 10s

Sb checks BB Checks I bet $50 Lp and butoon call 50 SB raises $300. bb Folds

My read is Lp and Button are weak and will not call. I know the Sb blind has at least 2 pair but more likely set - str8. I am 99% sure sb will fold all but the nut str8 to me with a push, Is the chance of his fold + the chance I make my hand worth a push Here.

Re: Fold equity worth a shot?
 

If you have limited him to a range of 2-pair/set/straight, and he ONLY calls with the nut straight, then obviously a push is profitable.

But I question whether or not he's not calling with a set or a sucker straight. I'd just fold.

Re: Fold equity worth a shot?
 

This is a clear fold. SB just bet $300.00 into a $125.00 pot. Unless he is a maniac, there is no way he would do that with any hand less than a set or a straight. Most likely he was trying to push off the flush draws, which makes me think a straight is more likely. If he had a set, he is slightly worse than 1:2 to have the board pair to make a boat (or 4 of a kind) by the river and there is almost 2:1 against a flush hitting. I could be wrong, but a huge bet with a hand which is probably the best and could still easily improve to best, does not seem logical. On the other hand, the nut straight is far more vulnerable to a flush draw, so it would make more sense that he would overbet the pot. Also, he would have to be pretty sure that he was not currently beaten to make such a huge bet. Hence, with him most likely holding the nut straight, he would call your push. Unless you caught runner runner, you just lost your stack. Clear fold.