**Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Cross-posted from MTT

A couple weeks back, in this thread about satellite strategy, Adanthar made this claim:

[ QUOTE ]

[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]

[/ QUOTE ]

And what do we do on 2+2 when someone make some fat spankingly outrageous claim like that? Why, we wager of course.

So after a few PMs, we settle on a bet of $1,000. Adanthar has an account with $30 in it, can play only ministep 1s (and any freerolls earned thereafter). If he at any time gets an entry into a ministep 5, he wins and gets a shiny trophy (read: ten benjamins). If he has run his account to less than enough to buy in to a ministep 1 and has no freerolls left, I win the trophy and he gets a certificate of participation.


Since the money has been sent to an intermediary and the games begun, we can both now explain why we're so goddamn certain that we're getting the best of it. I estimate his chance of success to be 25%. I'm assuming that he's an outstanding player.

Would like to see what some of you think about this as the games play out, and what Adanthar has to say about it.

And boy am I ever going to have to eat my words if he makes it.

Everett

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

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Yeah that's a kicker of sorts, but he explicitly told me that he was going to figure out his $/hr before accepting this. Apparantly its still ok. Especially since if he wins, he probalby gets somemoney at the step 5 level.

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I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off.

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Obviously you have to root for him. Rooting for me is like rooting for the house. Or the yankees. Yuck.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Results so far:

6 entries. 5 rerolls. 1 loss that was my fault (pushed 2 pair ran into a straight, should've check/folded.) There's a AA vs. AA all in loss and a bunch of lost 70/30's in there but whatever, I can reroll until I stop running bad.

We'll see how it goes from here, I'll be playing mostly in the evenings.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

this has inspired me

i'm gonna set aside $30 and try to win myself an entry to a ministep 5

i just play in the evenings anyway, so it's not like i have to worry about $/hour

if i make it (and win the mini step 5), plasma tv, if not, ramen noodles for a week

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

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adanthar = g00t plahyzheerzlkh
he had very many skzierlzlasd
doubt dont g00t player

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's a kicker of sorts, but he explicitly told me that he was going to figure out his $/hr before accepting this. Apparantly its still ok. Especially since if he wins, he probalby gets somemoney at the step 5 level.

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I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you have to root for him. Rooting for me is like rooting for the house. Or the yankees. Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather root for the house on the nickel slots than root for the Yankees.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

So for 30 bucks you basically get 5 swings at it?

I'd assume adanthar can chug through the first couple levels with rerolls on any particular buyin (barring disaster). That's assuming the opposition is very poor. What'll we give him ?...60% to make it thru 1 & 2 on any particular buyin? (edit: this is a low no I reckon, so don't feel offended ad...)

So what's the chances of him getting thru levels 3 & 4? I have no idea, but I'll put my money on the player here.

Anyone wanna side bet here..? I got $50 ready to put on adanthar. Post here anyone interested.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

adanthar isn't the type to make wildly irrational -EV claims off the top of his head... i say he gets there...

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

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ok. lets send our 50's to a willing 3rd party. Maybe the OP would hold it for us. I'll PM him.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I'd bet 200 against if the bet is still on.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

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ok. lets send our 50's to a willing 3rd party. Maybe the OP would hold it for us. I'll PM him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, PM me with the details of the third party etc...

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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adanthar isn't the type to make wildly irrational -EV claims off the top of his head... i say he gets there...

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Anyone remember Irieguy's blindfold challenge?

Very good players sometimes do strange things:P

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

for the average player:

level 1: 10% advance, 40% reroll, 10% $4 cash, 30% lose money

level 2: 20% advance, 30% reroll, 40% go back one step, 10% lose


once to level 2, i'm pretty sure he can almost always at least get a freeroll to one of the first 3 levels, as only 10th drops out, so the only times that will happen is if he gets all-in on early level with aa/kk or some other suckout

level 1 u gotta get top 5 every time (tho 6 gives u 2/3 of another buyin)

level 3 u just need top 8 to stay in and level 4 u just need top 9...

so level 1 is really the most dangerous level, but it's also the easiest


maybe adanthar shoulda made the bet to get $32 to start instead of 30, as he'll prolly get 6th at some point (or maybe 9th on mini 3) and the extra $2 woulda given him another chance...doubt everett woulda turned down the bet if u did that

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Level 2-4 is a maze, dude.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

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I don't care. It's fun. But a poker site transfer works too.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Im not to concerned, Adanthar is a great player and all, but I doubt he has 1000%+ ROI in these things.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

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I don't care. It's fun. But a poker site transfer works too.

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Has to be Neteller

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar = g00t plahyzheerzlkh
he had very many skzierlzlasd
doubt dont g00t player

[/ QUOTE ]

Would've been better if in the great form of Haiku:

Adanthar g00t
Much poker skill has this guy
Don't doubt g00t player

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Results so far:

6 entries. 5 rerolls. 1 loss that was my fault (pushed 2 pair ran into a straight, should've check/folded.) There's a AA vs. AA all in loss and a bunch of lost 70/30's in there but whatever, I can reroll until I stop running bad.

We'll see how it goes from here, I'll be playing mostly in the evenings.

[/ QUOTE ]]

So you used up one of your 5 entries so far?

SIDEBETS
 

As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.

Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

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That would be very -EV.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

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That would be very -EV.

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Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

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Clearly you are not familiar with the recent advances in magic glasses theory. Paul Philips has it covered here, extempore.livejournal.com.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Ok, I'm exaggerating but the variance in these is a bitch. I'm guessing the best players on six buy-ins might have like 20% chance of getting there on such a limited bankroll...

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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Ok, I'm exaggerating but the variance in these is a bitch. I'm guessing the best players on six buy-ins might have like 20% chance of getting there on such a limited bankroll...

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Quote me much?

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

No?

Re: SIDEBETS
 

[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.

Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]


I cleared out my PM box (shouldnt keep copies of sent PM's).

Ok. Well, I already agreed to who knows' wager. How about me and who knows send you $52 each (the $2 to cover any of your neteller transfer fees).

Can you PM me and who knows your neteller acct id so we can punt you that to hold?

thanks

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

Adanthar's real challenge is navigating through STEP 1 & 2. If he gets more than 1 to STEP 3, I think it's easy sailing. There's just so many bad beats on L1 & 2. This is where the real trouble is.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

I think with $30, he is a dog in this bet. With $50 he would be a favorite. Somewhere in the $40s is the breakeven point.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: SIDEBETS
 

[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.


Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

Any way to get on your side of the bet. You have WAY the best of it.

Re: SIDEBETS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.


Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

Any way to get on your side of the bet. You have WAY the best of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check the same post in MTT.

Re: SIDEBETS
 

if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Of course it's possible, the point is how probable.