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-   -   $33 MTT, Is this too early to start panicking (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=388676)

Steve 11-30-2005 08:43 PM

$33 MTT, Is this too early to start panicking
 
Is this too early for a move like this? I still have 6.5 BB but I'm going to lose 1200 chips to the blinds in a few hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB (t24206)
BB (t13680)
UTG (t16598)
UTG+1 (t5290)
UTG+2 (t2350)
MP1 (t8310)
Hero (t5359)
MP3 (t62147)
CO (t72520)
Button (t25451)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero is all in.

rbear 11-30-2005 08:46 PM

Re: $33 MTT, Is this too early to start panicking
 
read on MP3 and CO worry me here. BB will most likely fold.

Solitare 11-30-2005 09:27 PM

Re: $33 MTT, Is this too early to start panicking
 
With 5 to act after you, all with stacks &gt; 10xBB, I think you have very little fold equity here. So you are essentially betting the strength of your hand, which will probably only give you a 30-35% chance against a single caller. Which is about the same as playing any two cards. Would you go all-in with a 63s here? There is not much of a difference between the two. What is worse, with your stack you could easily get two callers. Then you are really in trouble.

It is very likely you will see a better hand than J7s in the next few hands. Even if the blinds hit you, you will have 5xBB and still retain some fold equity when you are in the SB, BB, and CO. You will get a better chance than this.

With your stack I'd definitely push J7s from the button, maybe the CO depending on reads and my recent stealing activity, but no way from MP2.


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