My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 <font color="#A500AF">(LooseBad)</font> calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(NoReadButLoose)</font> calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50 (All-In), <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, LooseBad calls, NoReadButLoose calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, LooseBad calls, <font color="#CC3333">NoReadButLoose raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, LooseBad calls, <font color="#CC3333">NoReadButLoose caps</font>, Hero calls, LooseBad calls.

River: (17.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
Hero checks, LooseBad checks, <font color="#CC3333">NoReadButLoose bets</font>, Hero calls, LooseBad folds.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

As long as you bet and raise preflop and on the flop, then its never your fault if you lose with them.

After the flop, there are times to throw away Aces, but those need to be handled on a case by case basis. Here, you should probably slow down on the turn, but don't fold.

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

When you raise pre-flop and you get just about any callers flushes have the odds to draw out on you. 3 callers and they have odds to call to the river.

KO

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

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When you raise pre-flop and you get just about any callers flushes have the odds to draw out on you.

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Does it look like a flush based on the way it was played?

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3 callers and they have odds to call to the river.

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Call to the river with what? Gut shots?

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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When you raise pre-flop and you get just about any callers flushes have the odds to draw out on you.

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Does it look like a flush based on the way it was played?

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Oops, sorry. Didn't look that close. If he hit his gutshot on the turn he had odds to do it... but if they're loose they may not worry about that too much.

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3 callers and they have odds to call to the river.

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Call to the river with what? Gut shots?

[/ QUOTE ] No, with flushes. Sorry.

KO

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

I don't see how you slow down. After the turn is capped and Villain bets the river, I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that Villain turned his set of 8's (or the more unlikely flush); but am I giving up on my AA on this board? No. It's not your fault if others hit their hands. You raised pf forcing them to call 2. You bet the flop and 3-bet the turn. The fact that you check/called the river shows some restraint. What would you do differently? If Villain has a set of Ks, 6s, or 9s, OK -- what can you do?

Nice hand.

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

The pot is such on the turn that calling to see the river is at least as good as folding. 3-betting the turn probably isn't the correct play (from a pure strategy standpoint).

Putting 5 BB into this pot is crazy IMO. Calling the river UI when he caps the turn has to be a dominated stratgey.

Folding to the turn raise is a dominated strategy. Calling down regardless of what hits is probably a slightly dominated strategy. The best play in situations like this is to call the turn raise and fold the river UI (where UI = you don't make aces up). The only caveat is that he isn't pushing a worse hand on the turn. If that is the case, then folding the river UI is usually dominated by calling the river (depending how often he will raise something like KJ on the turn).

Brad

EDIT: By dominated strategy I mean that there is another strategy that is "freerolling" it. So if I flip a fair coin and offer you 1:1 odds on heads, that strategy is dominated if some other dude will offer you 2:1 on heads using that same coin.

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is such on the turn that calling to see the river is at least as good as folding. 3-betting the turn probably isn't the correct play (from a pure strategy standpoint).

Putting 5 BB into this pot is crazy IMO. Calling the river UI when he caps the turn has to be a dominated stratgey.

Folding to the turn raise is a dominated strategy. Calling down regardless of what hits is probably a slightly dominated strategy. The best play in situations like this is to call the turn raise and fold the river UI (where UI = you don't make aces up). The only caveat is that he isn't pushing a worse hand on the turn. If that is the case, then folding the river UI is usually dominated by calling the river (depending how often he will raise something like KJ on the turn).

Brad

EDIT: By dominated strategy I mean that there is another strategy that is "freerolling" it. So if I flip a fair coin and offer you 1:1 odds on heads, that strategy is dominated if some other dude will offer you 2:1 on heads using that same coin.

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Brad - Your posts sometimes sail over my head with a whooshing sound, and unless I ask / challenge, I can't learn.

When Villain ("NoReadButLoose") raises, given the mostly uncoordinated board (sure a 75 or a T7 has a straight, but Hero raised pre-flop), the only real threat is a set or a turned / slowplayed two-pair. While certainly possible (KK, 99, 88, 66 could all call the pf raise - especially from a loose player, as could a number of two-pairs on this board from loose players - i.e., a K9 or K8 clubs), isn't going into call-down mode after a single raise on the turn incredibly weak? Surely a 3-bet is in order? And when it's capped, OK, we'll check / call the river. But before then?

Re: dominated strategy definition :)
 

so for the layman, "that line sucks a lot" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]


P.S. I can appreciate it...game theory is the shizzle. so is inserting z's into your words in posts.

Re: My Aces are running baaaaad! Is it my fault?
 

You are probably incorrect.

Limit hold'em is an interesting game because you can always "call down" if you really want to know what someone has. It will cost us 2 BB to "call down" and it will cost us 2 BB to make it 3-bets on the turn (just to make it 3-bets).

If the situation is heads up, we need to have the best hand &gt; 50% of the time (actually more because of the cap factor), or re-raising is a strictly dominated strategy. By paying those 2-bets, we could have seen a showdown. Going to a showdown dominates 3-betting if we are good &lt; 50% of the time.

But there is a 3rd player in the pot so that changes things. Now we only have to have the best of it 33% (but we actually need to have it more because our 3-bet re-opens the betting) of the time to make 3-betting a dominant strategy. Do we have the best hand here 33% of the time??? If we don't, calling down strictly dominates 3-betting. We actually need to have more then 33% equity to 3-bet because we open ourselves up to a cap when we 3-bet. In this hand, we probably have 10-20% equity so making it 3-bets gets dominated by calling down.

Brad