Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

This week is the first week of our fantasy playoffs. It may seem early to some, but we didn't want to have the championship game in week 16 or 17 when teams that have locked up homefield/playoff spot might rest some of their better players. Any insight is appreciated.

Anyway, I'm in as the 3rd seed, narrowly missing a shot at a bye week. 6 teams make the playoffs, 4 spots get paid - if I lose this week, I'm out. First place is $2500 and change, 4th pays $500 and change.

Two issues:

1. Defense - I've got Baltimore and Minnesota (picked up off waivers this week) - I've been picking up a defense pretty much every week for the last 5-6 weeks since Baltimore's fell apart (at the ripe price of $5 per pickup) - Baltimore might get Ed Reed/Ray Lewis back this week, and they host Houston. Minnesota's D has been super-hot the last month, and they play at Detroit. Normally this would be a no-brainer, but I don't know how the coach firing/QB switch in Detroit will affect the players. What would you do?

2. QB - I've got Carson Palmer. The guy I'm playing has Chad Johnson and Rudi Johnson. Normally I'd keep Palmer in to mitigate the Palmer-to-Chad Johnson TD factor, but they are playing a very pissed off Pittsburgh team in Pitt this Sunday, a Pittsburgh team who beat Cincy IN Cincy earlier this year. My other QB is Kurt Warner, playing in San Francisco. I've got Boldin, he's got Fitzgerald. Go with the best fantasy QB this year playing in a tough game, or go with a re-tread QB playing for a bad team vs. an even worse team?

Here is my lineup this week, and the lineup i'm playing.

My lineup:

ACTIVE
QB - C. Palmer
RB - S. Jackson
RB - S. Gado
RB - T. Barber
WR - S. Moss
WR - A. Boldin
TE - L.J. Smith
K - Elam
D - Vikings

RESERVE
QB - K. Warner
QB - B. Roethlisberger
WR - K. Johnson (Keyshawn)
WR - B. Lloyd
WR - M. Muhammed
WR - A. Lelie
D - Ravens

His lineup:

ACTIVE
QB - M. Hasslebeck
RB - R. Johnson
RB - J. Jones
RB - S. Davis
WR - C. Johnson
WR - L. Fitzgerald
TE - D. Clark
K - L. Tynes
D - Dolphins

RESERVE
QB - J. Plummer
RB - M. Barber
RB - M. Bennett
RB - D. Rhodes
WR - R. Smith
WR - E. Moulds
WR - M. Robinson
D - Seahawks

Again, thanks for any insight you have.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Start Palmer, and Minn D

AZ has a craptastic OL and Warner will get you 300 yds, and 1-2 TD's but the upside of Palmer far outweighs Warner's stability.

Cinn is a team that knows it needs to prove itself, they stomped the teams they should and have lost to the upper echelon teams. CJ has gone off in huge games this year, and he's getting better numbers each week mitigate it as much as possible. TJ is a damn good reciever as well and you'll capitalize on his catches as well, when CJ draws dbl and tpl coverage.

The huge issue I think you have is at RB. Gado @ Chi is very very weak. Since you have no depth is there anything out there to sup for gado for this week on the WW?

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
The huge issue I think you have is at RB. Gado @ Chi is very very weak. Since you have no depth is there anything out there to sup for gado for this week on the WW?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, tell me about it.

I made a trade two weeks ago trading away Ronnie Brown for Santana Moss straight up. I also had the option of trading away Gado for Galloway straight up but was lured in by Gado - since then he's had a craptastic week and then a very good week last week at Philly. It's a real toss-up vs. Chicago but I think at best he'll have a very average week. There's nothing available on the waiver wire, as teams (even those not in the playoffs) were making waiver moves up until last Sunday attempting to play spoiler to any potential playoff squads, and add/drops have been restricted for any teams not in the playoffs (since they dont have games to play anyway).

I'm really just counting on his running backs overall to crap the bed, and for Boldin to catch the TD's in the AZ game, not Fitzgerald.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

If there's one thing I've learned about playing fantasy football, it's to start your stars playoff time. Do you really wanna put your season on the line with Kurt Warner? If you lose points for turnovers, how bad would it be if he fumbled 3 times and tossed a pick or two? That's not an uncommon line for him, while Palmer has been tearing it up this year. I wouldn't read too much into his matchup. Don't worry about your opponent having CJ, points are points, and the last thing you wanna do is leave those on the bench at this point of the season.

For your defense I would start the Vikings simply b/c I think they have a greater chance of scoring a DTD. They've been scoring one or two lately almost every week it seems.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

CCx your alive! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'd start Palmer and Ravens.

Palmer is too much of a stud to sit at this point. Even with Warner playing SF.

I like Bal this week over Min as long as you are getting a point per sack and 2 points for a pick or fumble.

Det will be running the ball more this week and could negate some of their turnovers and sacks.

You really need to get Gado out of your line-up. A guy like Chris Perry (if you get points for catches),Maurice Hicks or Adrian Peterson are better running backs to have right now. If there is really no one on the waiver wire.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Never make lineup decisions based on who your opponent has on his team. You gain absolutely nothing by benching a QB because his #1 WR is playing against you. Just start your best players/those that should score the most.

That Gado matchup is terrible, but I guess you have to start him. It's a flex position, right? As for your two questions, clearly Palmer. And I take a chance on Baltimore, just because I think Houston is that bad.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Yes, the Gado position is a flex position.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, the Gado position is a flex position.

[/ QUOTE ] Start Keyshawn instead. I'm serious.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I have Warner and Palmer in both my money leagues and have been faced w/ the same dillema. Luckily for me, the only thing up for grabs for me is $250 for most total reg season points as my playoff spot is secured for both leagues. I did some analysis, though and here's some interesting info:

Passing TD's allowed / Passing Yards Allowed

49rs (32 ranked defense total, 32 ranked passing def)

2 - 362
5 - 342
2 - 363
1 - 255
2 - 385 (Cards w/ Josh Mc)
3 - 260
1 - 264
1 - 251
0 - 67 (Windy Chicago game)
1 - 233
3 - 343

If we throw out the Chicago game since there was less than 100 yards passing between both teams (only 13 pass attempts), 49rs have given up multiple TD passes in 6/10 games (5 once and 3 twice). They have given up 340+ yards in 5/10 games. They gave up less than 250 only once (233).

Here are how teams have fared against Pitt's D:

Passing TD / Yards

1-219
1-167
0-372
1-219
1-177
0-227 (Palmer at Home)
1-252
0-214
1-253
1-163
2-245

The Steelers have given up one multi passing TD game (last week to peyton). Peyton also broke their streak of a bajillion games w/out giving up a 100 passer rating to a QB. They have given up one 300 yard game. 7 of their 11 games, they have given up under 230 yards passing, frequently under 200.

I think these are probably the only two possible teams that you would consider starting Warner over Palmer, but there it is.

I also think that you protect yourself against Fitzgerald having a huge game since I think that he has more potential for it than Chad J vs. steelers.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I'm gonna go against what most people are saying you should do. You have to start Warner this week. Arizona's running game sucks. Shipp is injured. JJ Arrington can't get it done. Arizona can only move the ball by having Warner pass on nearly every [censored] play. Warner puts up 300 yards and 2-3 TDs against mediocre defenses in his sleep. Imagine what he'll do against SF. Any random 2+2er could QB against SF and throw for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. With the Steelers stingy pass defense, there is a very good chance that Palmer won't put up big numbers. It's not a TERRIBLE play to start Palmer instead of Warner. But I do think it is slightly -EV.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I think I would go with Warner too. SF is just too bad, and PIT is just too good.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

SossMan, thanks for taking the time to put up those numbers.

I'm starting to warm up to Warner for this week and this week only (though it could be my last week if I make the wrong decision) - my only problem with Warner is if he takes a big hit, he's out. Not saying that any QB in the league isn't one hit away from not playing the rest of the season, but Warner at his age, is certainly more susceptible to a game-ending hit than Palmer would be (meaning Warner's already had his bell rung many many times).

Anyway, I think I'll make this decision sometime on Sunday afternoon at around 12:58pm (and most likely a million times in between then) - if I had to pick a player to put in there right now, I'd pick Warner, since this game is for all of the figurative marbles, and he has the best chance to put up points from the QB position this week.....

....I think.
Thanks guys, I'll update this thread with how things are looking (and what lineup I went with) on Sunday.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I would keep an eye on the weather, though. We had some big gusts in the bay area yesterday and 10-15mph winds are scheduled for Sunday. This could have an adverse effect on the passing game for both teams.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Do you think that would have more of an adverse affect than below-freezing temps in Pittsburgh on Sunday? (combined with the other Pittsburgh factors i.e. key division/conference game, Pittsburgh jacked up after Monday vs. Indy, revenge for Cincy, etc.)

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Going with Warner and the Baltimore D

Detroit with the coaching and QB change is too much of an unknown right now, and since both teams are dome teams I didn't like the matchup as much as I like a dome team in Houston playing outside in chilly Baltimore.

With Warner well.... rolling the dice, weather forecast seems okay for SF (57 degrees, no/light wind, no precip), we'll see.

As much as I'd like to sit Gado I can't justify starting any of my wide receivers in his place (top choice would be Keyshawn but playing on the road in bad weather conditions) - just hoping for some yardage out of him and no fumbles.

The guy I'm playing made a change sitting Stephen Davis and starting Rod Smith in his place.

I'll update the scores after the 1pm games, thanks again for everyone's thoughts on this matchup.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

You're really gonna sit Palmer and put your season on the line with Warner...wow...I hope you're right

Edit: I also like Lelie or Lloyd better than Gado.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

This week and this week only, with these matchups, I think it's the right decision. I hope I'm right too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
This week and this week only, with these matchups, I think it's the right decision. I hope I'm right too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck bro. I'll try one last time to talk you out of this decision. You know how fantasy analysts refer to certain players as "must-start, regardless of matchup"? Carson Palmer is this type of player. You cannot justify sitting the BEST QB in fantasy football this year in favor of Kurt Warner, can you? If it makes you feel better, Pitt's D hasn't been playing up to par the past couple of weeks either, and the Bengals will look to avenge their previous game against them. I'll come up with some more stuff if you're still with Warner.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This week and this week only, with these matchups, I think it's the right decision. I hope I'm right too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck bro. I'll try one last time to talk you out of this decision. You know how fantasy analysts refer to certain players as "must-start, regardless of matchup"? Carson Palmer is this type of player. You cannot justify sitting the BEST QB in fantasy football this year in favor of Kurt Warner, can you? If it makes you feel better, Pitt's D hasn't been playing up to par the past couple of weeks either, and the Bengals will look to avenge their previous game against them. I'll come up with some more stuff if you're still with Warner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, tys

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
This week and this week only, with these matchups, I think it's the right decision. I hope I'm right too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

3 first-half TDs for Palmer.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

So far so good.

Palmer had 23 points, Roethlisberger had 26 points - neato, eh? Go Warner [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Ravens D over Minny D was good - Ravens 28, Minny 15

I've played 3 players, and have 59 points (Gado - 14, Barber - 17, Ravens D 28)

He's played 5 players and has 58 points. Rudi was his big scorer with 21, Chad was held to 5.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This week and this week only, with these matchups, I think it's the right decision. I hope I'm right too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck bro. I'll try one last time to talk you out of this decision. You know how fantasy analysts refer to certain players as "must-start, regardless of matchup"? Carson Palmer is this type of player. You cannot justify sitting the BEST QB in fantasy football this year in favor of Kurt Warner, can you? If it makes you feel better, Pitt's D hasn't been playing up to par the past couple of weeks either, and the Bengals will look to avenge their previous game against them. I'll come up with some more stuff if you're still with Warner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, tys

[/ QUOTE ]

Try not to pat yourself on the back just yet, Arizona has not finished playing their game. Additionally, you should have advised me to play Roethlisberger instead of Palmer because he had a better day. Why didn't you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

If it makes you feel better, I played against Palmer, and sat Roethlisberger myself (didn't realize you had him.) However, if you do not see the point of the advice I was trying to give you, you will not succeed in FF.

Edit: Roethlisberger threw 3 picks, both QBs had 27 pts in my league

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel better, I played against Palmer, and sat Roethlisberger myself (didn't realize you had him.) However, if you do not see the point of the advice I was trying to give you, you will not succeed in FF.

Edit: Roethlisberger threw 3 picks, both QBs had 27 pts in my league

[/ QUOTE ]

Our leagues obviously score differently. Case in point, my league only gives QB's 4 points for passing TD's - there are other assorted bonuses handed out elsewhere.

As for your advice: first, I've enjoyed a pretty good amount of success up to this point, but thanks for your concern - second, I appreciate(d) all the advice given in this thread, mentioned that several times in fact - however, because I didn't happen to go with your particular bit of advice....

Anyway good luck in your game this week.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
As for your advice: first, I've enjoyed a pretty good amount of success up to this point, but thanks for your concern - second, I appreciate(d) all the advice given in this thread, mentioned that several times in fact - however, because I didn't happen to go with your particular bit of advice....

Anyway good luck in your game this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

JTTH a fellow FF/2+2er. You obviously know what you're doing, your team is very solid. This is an eternal dilemma in FF: go with the stud or the matchup? Go Kurt!

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Well, looks like the QB situation was a total wash - Warner scored 22 points for me (354 yards, 29 completions, 1 TD and 2 INT's)

However Anquan Boldin went nuts with 11 catches for 156 yards and a TD - we get a bonus for 10+ catches, 100+ and 150+ yards receiving, and TD's 50+ yards.... so that was nice. Jackson and Moss really crapped the bed today.

Right now the score is 133-91, he's got Hasslebeck left tomorrow night, and I've got L.J. Smith - I don't think Hasslebeck will put up huge numbers due to the inclement weather tomorrow night, so I'm feeling pretty good about the victory. Woohoo!

Score:

ACTIVE
QB - K. Warner - 22
RB - S. Jackson - 3
RB - S. Gado - 14
RB - T. Barber - 17
WR - S. Moss - 5
WR - A. Boldin - 34
TE - L.J. Smith -
K - Elam - 10
D - Ravens - 28

Total: 133

RESERVE
QB - C. Palmer - 23
QB - B. Roethlisberger - 27
WR - K. Johnson (Keyshawn) - 1
WR - B. Lloyd - 4
WR - M. Muhammed - 0
WR - A. Lelie - 6
D - Vikings - 15

His lineup:

ACTIVE
QB - M. Hasslebeck -
RB - R. Johnson - 21
RB - J. Jones - 15
WR - R. Smith - 7
WR - C. Johnson - 5
WR - L. Fitzgerald - 15
TE - D. Clark - 3
K - L. Tynes - 7
D - Dolphins - 18

Total: 91

RESERVE
QB - J. Plummer - 15
RB - M. Barber - 0
RB - M. Bennett - 20
RB - D. Rhodes - 0
RB - S. Davis - 0
WR - E. Moulds - 0
WR - M. Robinson - 0
D - Seahawks -

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

WTG...wow your league's scoring system is weird. I'm down by 2 pts with Westbrook playing for me tomorrow night, his players are done. Looks like I'm in the playoffs. Now maybe I can start Roethlisberger with confidence. Got him, Brunell, and Mike McMahon. Why oh why did I draft Culpepper in the first round? Playoffs don't start til Week 15, would it be wrong of me to sit all of my good players next week to get better waiver position?

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

i ended up starting warner in both my $ leagues too. It wasn't looking good at around 11:00am my time (3 first half tds for palmer), but ended up nearly a wash. in one of my leagues we get 6pts for passing TDs, though so palmer outscored warner by 5. Those 5 points would have helped me watch the raider game a little easier since I would have been up 14 instead of 9 w/ him having Jordan playing. Luckily, Jordan sucked ass and I won.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck bro. I'll try one last time to talk you out of this decision. You know how fantasy analysts refer to certain players as "must-start, regardless of matchup"? Carson Palmer is this type of player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel better, I played against Palmer, and sat Roethlisberger myself (didn't realize you had him.) However, if you do not see the point of the advice I was trying to give you, you will not succeed in FF.

Edit: Roethlisberger threw 3 picks, both QBs had 27 pts in my league

[/ QUOTE ]

Your advice was basically "you must start Carson Palmer because he is a must play ". So you're saying you won't be successful at fantasy football unless you limit yourself to one-dimensional, unbending, linear football analysis like that? Give me a break. Warner was a very strong play this week, arguably even stronger than Palmer. No one can pick who will score higher every week. There is variance in fantasy football too, so please don't bother to point out that Palmer did score a few points more than Warner.

[ QUOTE ]
Why oh why did I draft Culpepper in the first round?

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that you stated that you drafted Culpepper in the first round makes me question your fantasy football knowledge to an even greater extent. I'm not even being results oriented here. It's just a fact that it's easy to get a QB in the 5th-7th round of drafting that will put up 80-90% of the fantasy numbers that a 1st round QB pick would. It's virtually impossible to get a RB in the 5th-7th round that would put up 80-90% of the production of a 1st round RB choice, unless your league is: very small, includes a bunch of idiots, or you get lucky and pick a sleeper.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

You are 100% right in terms of the QB position being probably the most diluted position in FF. However, I stand by my theory of the "must-starts" if you will. You can doubt my FF knowledge if you want, however out of all gambling related activities I've ever participated in, I've had most success in FF: this is my 5th season, I generally play in winner take all money leagues, I won my first season playing and last year, and this year I'm easily in position to win it all (last year won $1600, this year I can win $3500). Like I stated in my first post of this thread, "If there's one thing I've learned about playing fantasy football, it's to start your stars playoff time." Not following this advice almost cost me the season last year in the championship game: I started Billy Volek over Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme in Week 16 (I was fortunate enough to have a deep enough to overcome this mistake and Peyton Manning playing for my opponent). Of course McNabb's Eagles already knew their playoff fate, and Jake had the tougher matchup, but he in fact was a very consistent backup for me and put up a good number that week as opposed to Volek's goose-egg. Consistency is the key here, and I believe both QBs showed their's yesterday effectively. As far as drafting Culpepper, I drafted McNabb in the second round last year, and he was by far my team's MVP, and playing the same type of league this year, I wanted to center my team around my QB. Unforunately, Manning & McNabb were already taken, and I didn't have the forsight to draft Palmer in a later round, but I also determined that a scrambling QB was valuable in my type of league. The fact I've been able to overcome wasting my 1st round pick this year further demonstrates my knowledge in this area, so please don't question it again.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's just a fact that it's easy to get a QB in the 5th-7th round of drafting that will put up 80-90% of the fantasy numbers that a 1st round QB pick would. It's virtually impossible to get a RB in the 5th-7th round that would put up 80-90% of the production of a 1st round RB choice, unless your league is: very small, includes a bunch of idiots, or you get lucky and pick a sleeper.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this, i've never drafted a QB in the higher rounds - in fact this year i scooped up palmer in the 9th and 10th rounds in my two leagues - i much enjoy those who drafted manning 1st in a 12 team league this year and ended up with kevan barlow as their first running back choice with their next (24th) pick