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A hand a friend and I discussed
I am the worst player ever, so a friend of mine has looked at a few of my hands. We disagreed a bit about this one. Button here is pretty TAGgy (22/18/2). BB is a monkey (46/16). Comments on all streets appreciated.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. Flop: (9.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls. Turn: (9.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls. River: (12.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. Final Pot: 12.16 BB |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I think you bet this river. Button may not call you with his K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A, but BB will call with whatever he has.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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I think you bet this river. Button may not call you with his K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A, but BB will call with whatever he has. [/ QUOTE ] are you folding to a raise? |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
Bet the river.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
From who?
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I bet river, and call a raise. But I don't think you're getting raised.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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From who? [/ QUOTE ] button. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I really think the likely hood of you getting raised is pretty close to nil also.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
Easy river value bet IMO. Call a raise.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
EASY EASY RIVER BET DERG (this makes me lol), LOOK, HE CHECKED THROUGH.
put yourself in button's shoes here and you'll find that the only hand that fits and we beat is AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and he isn't calling a bet on the river with it. sure there is value vs. BB, but it really is a balancing act against the button. i think if we give him a reasonable range, i bet it's close whether or not the bet spent here to get value vs. BB is well spent when button will have us beaten here a decent amount of the time. i think i'd check raise the flop. if i were sure this guy would bet all his AK/AQ, then i'd really be happy about check raising the flop. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I think I would have check raised this flop as well. What type of hand do you put the button on after he called the flop and the turn, also considering that he 3 bet preflop and he is fairly TAG?
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
This is a pretty easy river bet IMO. If the button has you beat and is good he will bet when you check most of the time anyway so you don't save much with a check. Raising at this point for him is terrible for pretty much anyhand, so I wouldn't worry about that either.
The important thing to recognize is that even if your value against the button is quite small or slightly negative (which I don't think is true) the presence of the BB adds a ton of value to your bet which makes checking that much worse. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
On the flop I'd rather check raise here and hope to have, Bet-call-Raise, and not face the BB with multiple bets on average.
Turn is fine obviously. On the river You've got top pair good kicker and besides the flop no one has shown much strength. I'd expect the BB to hold a myraid of worse hands that will call including worse Jacks, Tens, and maybe even worse if he gets suspicious and thinks you had the lone Ac. The button will call with less on the river but I think you're giving up too much checking the river here with the monkey. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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I bet river, and call a raise. But I don't think you're getting raised. [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
check-raise flop... capping if possible. Betting river is good. The only hand I can see raising the river is a made flush, possibly a set (possibly).... mmm that's about it.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
Bet the river.
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I would check-raise the flop because there are lots of ways for BB to think his hand is worth peeling on this board and I want to trap him in the middle rather than facing him with two cold. Button might not even raise for you if you bet and that sucks even more.
Checking this river is just bad. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with this math is that you ignore the fact that when you check, the button will bet with most of the hands that have you beat so you lose that bet anyway. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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[ QUOTE ] Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with this math is that you ignore the fact that when you check, the button will bet with most of the hands that have you beat so you lose that bet anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Well in my analysis you dont beat any hand anyway(tie with a few) so you might as well let him bluff and if BB raises you can fold. |
for those of you that want to bet the river......
......what are you giving button here, and are you folding to a raise?
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Re: for those of you that want to bet the river......
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......what are you giving button here, and are you folding to a raise? [/ QUOTE ] BUMP |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
I was just wondering, if you bet, the button raises and the BB calls two cold, is it reasonable to assume that you're no good?
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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I was just wondering, if you bet, the button raises and the BB calls two cold, is it reasonable to assume that you're no good? [/ QUOTE ] I'd say so, but the way BB played he clearly is somewhat retarded so we may be able to discount his overcall a bit. But IMO a raise from button would mean that we are cooked here. Then again, I later played this hand against him, so who knows. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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I was just wondering, if you bet, the button raises and the BB calls two cold, is it reasonable to assume that you're no good? [/ QUOTE ] no, how can you assume your beat at all? No one has shown aggression except for you and the button. It makes sense to put the Button on the Kc probably AK or KQ. BB is probably on the draw with a small pair or maybe just on the draw. Also betting the river makes sense but i dont like check raising the flop. With a check raise your only going to get two bets in, i think its safe to assume that Button isnt going to reraise your check raise. Bet/raise gets the most money in the pot with the best draw and quite possibly the best hand. Also if Button caps your 3 bet you can be pretty sure your up against AA, KK, QQ. Probably KKc so i think there is value in getting that information. I like the way it played out except for the river check through. but im with DERG, i suck too. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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[ QUOTE ] I was just wondering, if you bet, the button raises and the BB calls two cold, is it reasonable to assume that you're no good? [/ QUOTE ] no, how can you assume your beat at all? No one has shown aggression except for you and the button. It makes sense to put the Button on the Kc probably AK or KQ. [/ QUOTE ] he 3bet me pf, so IMO a hand like Kq from this guy was rather unlikely. i also don't think he is 3betting the flop with just AKc. |
Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
what gives you the impression KQ is outta this guys range? because he didnt cap the the flop do you think AK is still possible?
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Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was just wondering, if you bet, the button raises and the BB calls two cold, is it reasonable to assume that you're no good? [/ QUOTE ] no, how can you assume your beat at all? No one has shown aggression except for you and the button. It makes sense to put the Button on the Kc probably AK or KQ. [/ QUOTE ] he 3bet me pf, so IMO a hand like Kq from this guy was rather unlikely. i also don't think he is 3betting the flop with just AKc. [/ QUOTE ] Didn't you 3-bet the flop? I see KQo being reraised preflop with position quite regularly by TAG's at 2/4. But I think with KQ he would want to keep the donk in, no? So he probably wouldn't raise the flop. 99 is a possibility as well. I can't see him with a big pocket because he would have raised the turn when the safe card dropped. The turn card is also great for an overpair as it counterfits any flop top 2 pair. Does he 3 bet with small pockets when he's not in the blinds against a steal? Looking at it more I really think that you're ahead on the river, bar donk-boy having coasted along all the way with a monster that he was waiting to checkraise the river with. |
Re: for those of you that want to bet the river......
I would put button on 99, KQ, AK, and BB on K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x or Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the monkey coldcall. I think it's unlikely a Taggy player wouldn't cap the flop with KQ holding a club, or exactly Ax K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
If checkraised, I would lay down the river. I sincerely doubt we will. Interested in hearing results. EDIT: for more info, i stoved a Taggy 3bet on the button, assuming they don't read you for worth isolating with less than below [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] AA-77, AKs-ATs, AK-AT, KQs-KTs, KQ-KJ, QJs vs A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] You hand has 75.8% equity on the turn, 74.3% on the turn and 73.7% on the river. If we factor in the BB is along for his donkey ride holding Kc x (let x= 7s) or Qc x, the stove comes out thus: Flop: You 72.3 - TAG 22.3 - BB 5.7 Turn: You 72.15 - TAG 24.7 - BB 3.15 River: You 73.8 - TAG 26.2 - BB 0 *even* if we let BB have a quite goot hand, say K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] we get this: Flop: You 69.2 - TAG 18.4 - BB 12.4 Turn: You 70.3 - TAG 20.9 - BB 8.8 River: You 75.6 - TAG 24.4 - BB 0 I *really* think the river bet is good. |
results
I am the worst player ever, so a friend of mine has looked at a few of my hands. We disagreed a bit about this one. Button here is pretty TAGgy (22/18/2). BB is a monkey (46/16). Comments on all streets appreciated.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. Flop: (9.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls. Turn: (9.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls. River: (12.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. Final Pot: 12.16 BB I assumed villain had me beat, but iwas gonna see a SD no matter what. He showed AJo, BB showed QTo. |
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