Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

I think I would have check raised this flop as well. What type of hand do you put the button on after he called the flop and the turn, also considering that he 3 bet preflop and he is fairly TAG?

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

This is a pretty easy river bet IMO. If the button has you beat and is good he will bet when you check most of the time anyway so you don't save much with a check. Raising at this point for him is terrible for pretty much anyhand, so I wouldn't worry about that either.

The important thing to recognize is that even if your value against the button is quite small or slightly negative (which I don't think is true) the presence of the BB adds a ton of value to your bet which makes checking that much worse.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

On the flop I'd rather check raise here and hope to have, Bet-call-Raise, and not face the BB with multiple bets on average.

Turn is fine obviously.

On the river You've got top pair good kicker and besides the flop no one has shown much strength. I'd expect the BB to hold a myraid of worse hands that will call including worse Jacks, Tens, and maybe even worse if he gets suspicious and thinks you had the lone Ac. The button will call with less on the river but I think you're giving up too much checking the river here with the monkey.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet river, and call a raise. But I don't think you're getting raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

check-raise flop... capping if possible. Betting river is good. The only hand I can see raising the river is a made flush, possibly a set (possibly).... mmm that's about it.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

Bet the river.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

I would check-raise the flop because there are lots of ways for BB to think his hand is worth peeling on this board and I want to trap him in the middle rather than facing him with two cold. Button might not even raise for you if you bet and that sucks even more.

Checking this river is just bad.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this math is that you ignore the fact that when you check, the button will bet with most of the hands that have you beat so you lose that bet anyway.

Re: A hand a friend and I discussed
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Buttons play looks like AJ,KQs(except KQc),QQ+,KQo imo. You are 50% vs this range. If you rank them for likelyhood I would say KQo,AJo are a little less likely because of the preflop action. So you arent looking good vs this range(if you remove KQo you have 25% equity). Now what hands will villain raise? Imo he wont raise any of them. I believe our equity is around 35% vs buttons range. Now how often will we beat BBs hand and how often will he call? Imo we need BB to call every time with a worse hand for it to be +EV (0.35*.1=>1/3). So this isnt a valuebet. Check call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this math is that you ignore the fact that when you check, the button will bet with most of the hands that have you beat so you lose that bet anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well in my analysis you dont beat any hand anyway(tie with a few) so you might as well let him bluff and if BB raises you can fold.