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-   -   Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=261161)

AA suited 05-28-2005 08:19 PM

Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?

mannika 05-28-2005 09:39 PM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
=1-(prob of not making boat/quads)

= 1-(40/47)(36/46)

= 33.4%

pzhon 05-28-2005 09:41 PM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
[ QUOTE ]
flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have no information about what anyone else has, you will fill up 7/47 + (40/47)(10/46) = 33.4%.

If you know your opponent has a flush, you will fill up 7/45 + (6/45)(9/44)+(32/45)(10/44) = 341/990 = 34.4%. The middle term comes from when the turn would pair your opponent, giving you only 9 outs on the river. It is slightly more likely that you fill up if you know your opponent is not blocking the board from pairing.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=988421
Board: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656
7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344

If you know your opponent has a straight or a baby flush, you get the same probability to fill up, but you also have outs to tie.

AA suited 05-29-2005 10:08 AM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
33% = 3:1?

olavfo 05-29-2005 11:44 AM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
[ QUOTE ]
33% = 3:1?

[/ QUOTE ]
33% = 2:1

You make it 1 out of 3 times and fail 2 out of 3 times. The odds are therefore 2:1 against.

olavfo

mw999 05-30-2005 07:21 PM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
New to board. I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner? My math shows that runner runner is 6.5%.
2nd question. what are the odds and percentage of the board paring at each stage? thoughts please. MW

pzhon 05-31-2005 08:15 AM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean something like a flop of AKQ, turn 6, river 6? That is included in the calculations. It is why people say that you have 7 outs to fill up on the turn, and if you miss, you have 10 outs to fill up on the river.

mw999 05-31-2005 09:30 AM

Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?
 
I understand. two different internet sites have it listed as 37%. I will stick to the 33%. Thanks for info. MW


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