Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

This week is the first week of our fantasy playoffs. It may seem early to some, but we didn't want to have the championship game in week 16 or 17 when teams that have locked up homefield/playoff spot might rest some of their better players. Any insight is appreciated.

Anyway, I'm in as the 3rd seed, narrowly missing a shot at a bye week. 6 teams make the playoffs, 4 spots get paid - if I lose this week, I'm out. First place is $2500 and change, 4th pays $500 and change.

Two issues:

1. Defense - I've got Baltimore and Minnesota (picked up off waivers this week) - I've been picking up a defense pretty much every week for the last 5-6 weeks since Baltimore's fell apart (at the ripe price of $5 per pickup) - Baltimore might get Ed Reed/Ray Lewis back this week, and they host Houston. Minnesota's D has been super-hot the last month, and they play at Detroit. Normally this would be a no-brainer, but I don't know how the coach firing/QB switch in Detroit will affect the players. What would you do?

2. QB - I've got Carson Palmer. The guy I'm playing has Chad Johnson and Rudi Johnson. Normally I'd keep Palmer in to mitigate the Palmer-to-Chad Johnson TD factor, but they are playing a very pissed off Pittsburgh team in Pitt this Sunday, a Pittsburgh team who beat Cincy IN Cincy earlier this year. My other QB is Kurt Warner, playing in San Francisco. I've got Boldin, he's got Fitzgerald. Go with the best fantasy QB this year playing in a tough game, or go with a re-tread QB playing for a bad team vs. an even worse team?

Here is my lineup this week, and the lineup i'm playing.

My lineup:

ACTIVE
QB - C. Palmer
RB - S. Jackson
RB - S. Gado
RB - T. Barber
WR - S. Moss
WR - A. Boldin
TE - L.J. Smith
K - Elam
D - Vikings

RESERVE
QB - K. Warner
QB - B. Roethlisberger
WR - K. Johnson (Keyshawn)
WR - B. Lloyd
WR - M. Muhammed
WR - A. Lelie
D - Ravens

His lineup:

ACTIVE
QB - M. Hasslebeck
RB - R. Johnson
RB - J. Jones
RB - S. Davis
WR - C. Johnson
WR - L. Fitzgerald
TE - D. Clark
K - L. Tynes
D - Dolphins

RESERVE
QB - J. Plummer
RB - M. Barber
RB - M. Bennett
RB - D. Rhodes
WR - R. Smith
WR - E. Moulds
WR - M. Robinson
D - Seahawks

Again, thanks for any insight you have.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Start Palmer, and Minn D

AZ has a craptastic OL and Warner will get you 300 yds, and 1-2 TD's but the upside of Palmer far outweighs Warner's stability.

Cinn is a team that knows it needs to prove itself, they stomped the teams they should and have lost to the upper echelon teams. CJ has gone off in huge games this year, and he's getting better numbers each week mitigate it as much as possible. TJ is a damn good reciever as well and you'll capitalize on his catches as well, when CJ draws dbl and tpl coverage.

The huge issue I think you have is at RB. Gado @ Chi is very very weak. Since you have no depth is there anything out there to sup for gado for this week on the WW?

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
The huge issue I think you have is at RB. Gado @ Chi is very very weak. Since you have no depth is there anything out there to sup for gado for this week on the WW?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, tell me about it.

I made a trade two weeks ago trading away Ronnie Brown for Santana Moss straight up. I also had the option of trading away Gado for Galloway straight up but was lured in by Gado - since then he's had a craptastic week and then a very good week last week at Philly. It's a real toss-up vs. Chicago but I think at best he'll have a very average week. There's nothing available on the waiver wire, as teams (even those not in the playoffs) were making waiver moves up until last Sunday attempting to play spoiler to any potential playoff squads, and add/drops have been restricted for any teams not in the playoffs (since they dont have games to play anyway).

I'm really just counting on his running backs overall to crap the bed, and for Boldin to catch the TD's in the AZ game, not Fitzgerald.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

If there's one thing I've learned about playing fantasy football, it's to start your stars playoff time. Do you really wanna put your season on the line with Kurt Warner? If you lose points for turnovers, how bad would it be if he fumbled 3 times and tossed a pick or two? That's not an uncommon line for him, while Palmer has been tearing it up this year. I wouldn't read too much into his matchup. Don't worry about your opponent having CJ, points are points, and the last thing you wanna do is leave those on the bench at this point of the season.

For your defense I would start the Vikings simply b/c I think they have a greater chance of scoring a DTD. They've been scoring one or two lately almost every week it seems.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

CCx your alive! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'd start Palmer and Ravens.

Palmer is too much of a stud to sit at this point. Even with Warner playing SF.

I like Bal this week over Min as long as you are getting a point per sack and 2 points for a pick or fumble.

Det will be running the ball more this week and could negate some of their turnovers and sacks.

You really need to get Gado out of your line-up. A guy like Chris Perry (if you get points for catches),Maurice Hicks or Adrian Peterson are better running backs to have right now. If there is really no one on the waiver wire.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Never make lineup decisions based on who your opponent has on his team. You gain absolutely nothing by benching a QB because his #1 WR is playing against you. Just start your best players/those that should score the most.

That Gado matchup is terrible, but I guess you have to start him. It's a flex position, right? As for your two questions, clearly Palmer. And I take a chance on Baltimore, just because I think Houston is that bad.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

Yes, the Gado position is a flex position.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, the Gado position is a flex position.

[/ QUOTE ] Start Keyshawn instead. I'm serious.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I have Warner and Palmer in both my money leagues and have been faced w/ the same dillema. Luckily for me, the only thing up for grabs for me is $250 for most total reg season points as my playoff spot is secured for both leagues. I did some analysis, though and here's some interesting info:

Passing TD's allowed / Passing Yards Allowed

49rs (32 ranked defense total, 32 ranked passing def)

2 - 362
5 - 342
2 - 363
1 - 255
2 - 385 (Cards w/ Josh Mc)
3 - 260
1 - 264
1 - 251
0 - 67 (Windy Chicago game)
1 - 233
3 - 343

If we throw out the Chicago game since there was less than 100 yards passing between both teams (only 13 pass attempts), 49rs have given up multiple TD passes in 6/10 games (5 once and 3 twice). They have given up 340+ yards in 5/10 games. They gave up less than 250 only once (233).

Here are how teams have fared against Pitt's D:

Passing TD / Yards

1-219
1-167
0-372
1-219
1-177
0-227 (Palmer at Home)
1-252
0-214
1-253
1-163
2-245

The Steelers have given up one multi passing TD game (last week to peyton). Peyton also broke their streak of a bajillion games w/out giving up a 100 passer rating to a QB. They have given up one 300 yard game. 7 of their 11 games, they have given up under 230 yards passing, frequently under 200.

I think these are probably the only two possible teams that you would consider starting Warner over Palmer, but there it is.

I also think that you protect yourself against Fitzgerald having a huge game since I think that he has more potential for it than Chad J vs. steelers.

Re: Fantasy help, it\'s the playoffs! $$-time
 

I'm gonna go against what most people are saying you should do. You have to start Warner this week. Arizona's running game sucks. Shipp is injured. JJ Arrington can't get it done. Arizona can only move the ball by having Warner pass on nearly every [censored] play. Warner puts up 300 yards and 2-3 TDs against mediocre defenses in his sleep. Imagine what he'll do against SF. Any random 2+2er could QB against SF and throw for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. With the Steelers stingy pass defense, there is a very good chance that Palmer won't put up big numbers. It's not a TERRIBLE play to start Palmer instead of Warner. But I do think it is slightly -EV.