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-   -   Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361876)

RED FACE 10-20-2005 06:20 PM

Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
preflop matchups
AhKh (47.9%) vs 6s6d (52.1%)
AhKh (48.2%) vs 5s5d (51.8%)

If it is accurate why are the 5's worse? I would think they would be better because if an A falls 5's can still use that to make a str8 whereas 6's can't, no?

10-20-2005 06:27 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
From the Cornell poker odds calculator, 1,000,000 simulated hands:

AKs (47.84%), 66(52.16%)
AKs (48.24%), 55(51.76%)

Looks pretty accurate to me. The chance that A234 comes in 5 cards is pretty slim, so that's not enough to push 55 better than 66.

Incidentally, in case you weren't already aware, the small differences in the probabilities we got can be explained by the fact that both of these are Monte Carlo simulators -- that is, they run X number of simulated hands rather than being exhaustive searches.

RED FACE 10-20-2005 06:37 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
thanks, what's the advantage of 66 over 55?

RED FACE 10-20-2005 06:54 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
is it because if there is a boat on the board it's more likely that it's lower than 66(making the pp the winner) than below 55? I can't think of anything else.

edit: yeah, I'm sure this must be it.

Darryl_P 10-20-2005 07:09 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
One of the ways AK can beat a pocket pair is to have 2,3,4,5 come up. Against 66 that possibility is taken away.

10-20-2005 07:15 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
Dont forget about the board double pairing. Notice that both of the pairs on a double paired board must be higher than the pocket pair if AK is to win this way. Thus the higher the pocket pair the fewer ways the board can double pair with pairs high enough to make AK win with an A high.

RED FACE 10-20-2005 07:27 PM

Re: Is cardplayer odds calculater accurate?
 
Right, thanks all. 66 and 77 are the same so w the 66 it eliminates A-5 str8 possiblity and w 77, while it doesn't eliminate the str8 possibility, it makes up for that by the increased chance of lower boat and lower 2 pair on board.

88 is higher than both as (now) expected.

thanks again
Eric


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