J2 and a tough river decision
 

Or maybe I went wrong before the river. This is on the party 5/10 game, HH is from memory but I'm pretty sure it's correct.

SB is a typical 44/10/1 after 20 hands or so, CO is a 44/0/.6 after 100 hands who goes to showdown 45 % of the time.

Hero has J2o in the BB. CO limps, Button limps, SB limps and I check.
Flop (4 SB) : J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB bets, I raise, CO calls, Button folds, SB 3-bets [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] and we both call.

Turn (6.5 BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SB bets, hero calls (?), CO calls.

River (9.5 BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB bets, hero ?

I really really don't want to overcall the river with top pair no kicker, and I'm worried that CO's call down range includes a king at least 1/3 of the time here. I think I should have raised the turn, but if I get 3-bet can I really fold to the chance he has a lower two pair or overpair I'm drawing live against?

Comments welcome on all streets.

Re: J2 and a tough river decision
 

Basing my decision solely on the 1 agr factor, the last money I put into this pot is calling the flop 3-bet to see if i improve on the turn. Maybe this is too weak tight, but he probably has a better jack or 2 pair.

Re: J2 and a tough river decision
 

Fold the turn. You're not getting 3-bet by anything you beat here. I figure the SB has atleast top pair, so you are definitely outkicked. I wouldn't worry about the CO. He could be calling down with any draw. If you're going to call this turn, you have to call the river, and I would not want to do that.

Re: J2 and a tough river decision
 

Against a "typical" player, this seems to be an easy turn fold.

Re: J2 and a tough river decision
 

With one villain 3betting and another coldcalling on the flop, I'm willing to assume that one of them has a Jack, which means he has a better kicker. I'll probably fold to the turn bet.

Re: J2 and a tough river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn. You're not getting 3-bet by anything you beat here. I figure the SB has atleast top pair, so you are definitely outkicked. I wouldn't worry about the CO. He could be calling down with any draw. If you're going to call this turn, you have to call the river, and I would not want to do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I don't need to worry about getting pushed out of this hand by a flush draw on the turn? Because I might play that way occasionally, especially if I had a low pair + the flush draw on the flop. Of course, my aggro is around 2.0 but does my read on the SB really mean much with so few hands recorded?

It's looking like this is a raise/fold on the turn then. Anyone have a different take on it?