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-   -   Overpair with a low pair/flush draw on the board (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=168169)

MediaPA 12-29-2004 07:37 AM

Overpair with a low pair/flush draw on the board
 
Sitting in a 5 handed game. Again a standard game. No one is overly aggressive. My opponent raises a fair amount in position and will call ~33% of raises from the BB. He has never come over the top of a lead in bet to this point either on the flop or turn. I think that I'm seen as a fairly tight player who doesn't raise much preflop. I've looked at my fair share of cheap flops (with position and unraised, seldom entering a raised pot except for w/ occassionally good hand or low suited connectors), but generally, don't go much further if unimproved.

Button ($4070.50)
SB ($2848)
BB ($4312)
UTG ($7525)
Hero ($5086)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $175</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $125.

Flop: ($375) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $375</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $1500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??????????</font>

Ok, so I'm looking at what I need to be concerned about in this hand.
AA, QQ unlikely but possible
Any 5 = I'd estimate most likely playable by opponent 45,56,57,A5
Flush Draws, AQ would possibly bet this way
Also a straight steal from the blind (I'd be tempted to do this, but I'd probably wait for the turn)

So, what's the best play?
1) Call and see what the turn brings? This gains me little information. Then brings up turn choices.
2) Raise the minimum or pot? This will eliminate AQ, flush draws, theives but I'll be into the hand for 1/2 or more of my stack if called.
3) Fold and Wait for a better spot? I have $550 in the pot, and there are a lot of possible hands that have me drawing thin or a slight favorite.

lapoker17 12-29-2004 08:15 AM

Re: Overpair with a low pair/flush draw on the board
 
Tough spot.

I flat call here. If he's not scared, and leads big on the turn, I guess I'm gone, but I'm just not getting away from Kings on this flop.

If he checks the turn, then I probably check behind and call a reasonable bet on the river. If checked to on the river, then it becomes a straight read thing - Can you bet for value, or is he tricky enough to check raise you - your call.

Hope it worked out.


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