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-   -   River spot (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=385336)

Eric P 11-26-2005 04:49 PM

Re: River spot
 
i think betting and folding stinks. The hands that will pay off are A3 A5 88 99 TT (can't remember the high card on the board, but i'm assuming he can't have jacks, and even 99 or TT seems like a stretch). Also, he could easily have AT or AJ and check for the same reason we might - you could have easily made two pair.

My point is very few hands will pay off here, and it really seems like betting is marginal enough that it might be better to get to see his hand, betting and folding you lose a bet and can't see his hand; so checking seems better cause we miss a bet, occasionally save a bet and get to see his hand. I'm not advocating always checking these types of hands, but if you are paying attention then reads can be very profitable, plus you migt be losing here a lot.

Not to mention the image you generate for yourself when you show this hand, people will think you are weak after this hand, and will help you pick up a pot or two.

PokerBob 11-26-2005 06:04 PM

Re: River spot
 
he likely has ace-poop. I often like to pop the turn and check the river in thse spots unless i improve.

11-26-2005 06:26 PM

Re: River spot
 
He checks, u check. He only calls if he has you beat or with Ace lower kicker. Ace lower kicker is probably paired. Just check.

AceHigh 11-26-2005 08:41 PM

Re: River spot
 
You should probably raise the turn and take the free showdown when the 7 shows up if you can, in case your opponent has the flush draw.

I would check against tighter BB and bet against loose ones, since unknown - check.

daryn 11-26-2005 10:54 PM

Re: River spot
 
imagine if he had like a king high diamond draw with no pair? a river checkraise by him would be awesome.

jayheaps 11-27-2005 10:27 AM

Re: River spot
 
I'd raise turn and check river.

TaintedRogue 11-27-2005 11:17 AM

Re: River spot
 
Well, I see players bet a pocket pair down to the River and then ck/call; so we have KK-88 * 6 = 42 hands we beat. I believe, however, that the BB would re-raise preflop with KK & I would also re-raise with QQ.

Because of the Flop and the fact it is the BB who called for 1 bet, he could be leading out with 33 & 55, so we have 12 more hands we beat.

The only Ax we beat is A5, 3 & 8 and because of the Flop, he could have been betting those hands also.

He is probably going to call with all hands, however, I would ck/raise with all hands, if I thought there was a 1 in 5 chance you would fold. I would also ck/raise with a busted flush draw.

So, you can't bet the River against me, unless you're willing to call the raise. I ck/raise AK, trips and two pair also.

DrGutshot 11-27-2005 01:17 PM

Re: River spot
 
I say to myself "ok i'll bet and fold to a check raise" then I bet and if he check raises I convince myself he could be making a last desperation bluff and i eventually call.

FWIW though IMO he is very rarely c/r'ing here with a hand that beats you.

-DrG

MattiasL 11-27-2005 02:15 PM

Re: River spot
 
If the only read we have is "really bad" I like to bet. I think a c/c with a weaker hand is much more common than a c/r or a stronger hand going for c/c. The only close question for me would if it is bet-call or bet-fold.

I would probably bet-call, but I am not convinced it is better than bet-fold.


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