QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

At first glance, villain is an LPP fish. After about 40 hands he's 50/5/0.5 and he's going to showdown 45% of the time, although I'm not sure how accurate this read is. In a previous hand, villain came over the top with a massive overbet (50BB) to snap off my C/B on the flop, so maybe he's just been getting "good" starting cards that don't hold up.

I, on the other hand, have been playing very tight (VPIP 17%), but hyper-aggressive (AF 6.5). I've already taken one person's stack with a flopped straight, and I've shown down a couple of other good hands. As a result, I've got most of the table terrorized and they are avoiding playing against me, which has let me take down several pots by betting (sometimes I even had a hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

.25/.50 NLHE 6-max, 4 players
Hero has $82.36, UTG has $38.95

Hero is SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG calls, Button folds, Hero <font color="red"> raises to $2.75 </font>, BB folds, UTG calls

($6.00) Flop <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $4, UTG calls

($14.00) Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $35 (this will put UTG all-in if he calls)

My thoughts at the time: The odds are that UTG does not actually have a flush, and if he does have the flush, he probably doesn't have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Providing he doesn't actually have the A, this bet is VERY hard for villain to call. And if he does have the A, I have 10 outs to beat him.

Good? Or did I overplay it?

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

How do you figure "the odds are that UTG does not actually have a flush"? Despite the fact that the villain is seeing a lot of showdowns, the chances of him having a heart go up significantly after he calls a 2/3 pot bet on a three-heart flop. Also, if he does not have a heart, what do you expect him to call your gigantic overbet with? He'll certainly call it with any heart he called the flop with but he may fold AT, A9, AQ, pocket pairs and other hands you want him to call with.

SpaceAce

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure "the odds are that UTG does not actually have a flush"?

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Speaking from a strictly mathematicaly point of view, heads-up on a four-flush board, the odds of villain actually having a flush are about 1 in 5. That being said, I actually put him on a flush. As you said, he most likely wouldn't have called on that flop without at least 1 heart.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if he does not have a heart, what do you expect him to call your gigantic overbet with? He'll certainly call it with any heart he called the flop with but he may fold AT, A9, AQ, pocket pairs and other hands you want him to call with.

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Folding him out was my intent, entirely. This play was mainly a bluff, with outs to a real hand (yes, a semi-bluff heh). A normal-sized bet would have resulted in a call from any heart, even the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A check would have resulted in a bet, and based on villain's previous history, it was possible the bet would be too large to call.

So I figured that I had one of two choices: Bash him over the head and hope to take it down now or check/fold. Based on the way the table had been reacting to me, I chose to bash.

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

Eh. If the push was a PSB I would feel happier about it, especially because villain is rarely folding anything higher than T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Speaking from a strictly mathematicaly point of view, heads-up on a four-flush board, the odds of villain actually having a flush are about 1 in 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this is way off.

With 6 cards already dealt, the total number of deals your opponent can get are C(46,2) = 1035. The number of deals in which he recieves exactly 1 heart are: 9 * 45 = 405, and the deals in which he recieves exactly 2 hearts are 9 * 8 = 72. So the probability that your opponent has at least 1 heart is:

p = (9 * 45) + (9 * 8) / C(46,2)
= (405 + 72) / 1035
= 0.46

...so about half the time your opponent has a flush here.

I think...

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe this is way off.

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Hmmm...now that I think about it, you're probably right. I was just parroting something I'd read a while ago, without doing the math. So my reasoning is a bit faulty here.

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...so about half the time your opponent has a flush here.

I think...

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You're numbers look good...but my intuition says you're a touch too high. Can't say why though. It's been too long since I "learned" this in college calc, and I can't remember how to do it heh. Still...I agree that it's likely significantly higher than 1/5.

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Eh. If the push was a PSB I would feel happier about it, especially because villain is rarely folding anything higher than T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate a bit?

I don't really want the flush to play. Wouldn't a PSB be a lot easier for a weaker flush (something less than the hypothetical T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) to call? Or am I risking too much on a bluff play?

Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
 

Your intuition is correct. I think my math was faulty.

The number of deals where your opponent will recieve exactly one heart isn't 9 * 45, since 8 of the remaining 45 are also hearts. It's 9 * 37. So the number of correct probability is actually...

p = (9 * 37) + (9 * 8) / C(46,2)
= (333 + 72) / 1035
= 0.39

or just under 40% of the time.