Theory of Poker Effective Odds Question
 

I'm having problems seeing a practical application of the effective odds situation presented on pages 50-51 of Theory of Poker:

Let's look at an interesting, more complex application of effective odds. Suppose there is $250 in the pot, you have a back-door flush draw in hold 'em, and an opponent bets $10. With a back-door flush draw you need two in a row of a suit. To make things simple, we'll assume the chances of catching two consecutive of a particular suit are 1/5*1/5...

David then explains that the future rounds of required bet calling changes this from a good call to a bad call. I understand this but what I don't understand is how this situation would ever arise? Heads up in a $250 pot with only a back-door flush draw for outs and an opponent that is betting just $10? Could someone please provide a situation where this might happen? What was the pre-flop action? What are my cards? What is the flop? How does this happen?

Re: Theory of Poker Effective Odds Question
 

That's a good question. I don't think you need a practical example to get the point though. Maybe this is a way to look at it:

Suppose you are looking at an open ended straight on the flop. With eight outs you are roughly 4-1 to hit it on the turn and about 2-1 to hit it on the turn or river. Suppose the pot is $20 and you have to call $10. This gives you 2-1 odds right now but with another $20 bet to come on the turn you will have to call a total of $30 to win $40. 4-3 odds don't warrant a call on the flop. The point is that your odds can appear to be correct, but when you really look at how the hand will play out you might have the worst of it.
I hope I have this right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]!! LOL That is my understanding of it.

-g

Re: Theory of Poker Effective Odds Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you are looking at an open ended straight on the flop. With eight outs you are roughly 4-1 to hit it on the turn and about 2-1 to hit it on the turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make that roughly 5-1 on the turn (4.88-1) and roughly 2-1 on the turn or river (2.18-1).

Re: Theory of Poker Effective Odds Question
 

It's not important how the situation would arise... it's just important that you understand what he is saying. i.e. that you need to take into account future bets if you are going to be calling more than one street. Take a look at a more simple example:

An opponent bets $20 into you on the flop in a 20/40 game when you have a marginal hand and there is $40 in the pot. You are getting 3:1 on your call... and you think there is a 25% chance your hand is going to be good at the river. Looks good, right? No. Since we are going to call all the way down we need to add in the bets on the turn and river as well. 20 (flop bet) + 40 (pot) + 40 (turn bet) + 40 (river bet) : 20 (flop call) + 40 (turn call) + 40 (river call) = 140:100 = 1.4:1. So we need to be good around 40% of the time to make this calldown correct.

This too is a made-up example... just understand that if you plan on calling future bets it makes your odds less attractive then they look at the moment. You might have already understood that...so if you did disregard this post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Theory of Poker Effective Odds Question
 

A common situation where I would use effective odds is where I have a decent hand and I am raised on the turn. Then I have to decide whether it is worth seing a showdown.

Lets say I raise with pocket Tens and get 4 callers including the button and both blinds call. The flop is 7 7 2. I bet and only the button calls. The turn is a 5. I bet and the button raises.

Now there are 11BB in the pot. In order to see showdown I am going to have to pay 2 more BB in order to win 12BB, so my effective odds are 12:2 or 6:1.

So now I decide whether I should fold or see the showdown. If I think my odds of winning the hand are worse than 6:1 I fold, otherwise I call.