Is this EVER not a set?
 

Playing six player max 100NL on my lunch break today. I have 33 and limp utg. There are two callers and Button makes it 4, sb folds, BB calls. I call and the rest call. 5 to the flop that's:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked around. Turn

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet 5, don't ask me why such a small bet. Folded to pre-flop raiser who makes it 15, I call. River brick. I check and he bets 30.

What'd yah think?

Peace

Goodie

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

Could be a not so well played overpair.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Playing six player max 100NL on my lunch break today. I have 33 and limp utg. There are two callers and Button makes it 4, sb folds, BB calls. I call and the rest call. 5 to the flop that's:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked around. Turn

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet 5, don't ask me why such a small bet. Folded to pre-flop raiser who makes it 15, I call. River brick. I check and he bets 30.

What'd yah think?

Peace

Goodie

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your $5 turn bet means you probably cost yourself a $30 call on the river.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

it could be QJ from aggressive lateposition raiser but yeah, this is tough.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

Why is this obviously a set? Because that's what he had?

Unless he's uber weak/tight, what's wrong with AA, KK, AQ, or QJs, maybe even KT or AT sooted. Barring a strong read/history, I'm calling this every time.

Sounds like it didn't work out though...

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

Looks to me like it could be just about anything. You've shown almost no strength for the entire hand. Your incredibly weak turn bet after what looks like a useless 3 isn't going to scare him if he hit anything on that flop. He put in a 3/5 pot raise which could mean a queen, a jack, or just a total bluff if he senses weakness from you. Your check on the river just reaffirms that you feel weak and his $30 bet into a $50 pot is not an unreasonable value bet with a lot of hands worse than a set.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this obviously a set? Because that's what he had?

Unless he's uber weak/tight, what's wrong with AA, KK, AQ, or QJs, maybe even KT or AT sooted. Barring a strong read/history, I'm calling this every time.

Sounds like it didn't work out though...

[/ QUOTE ]

because many players incorrectly check the nuts versus the field in order to keep their customers.

i'm not folding either though and i probably lose a lot more money here than hero.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

I wish I was good enough in the heat of the hand to lay a set down somewhere here, but I think I'm probably getting it all in on the turn and losing it all if he really has a set. At least if I get it all-in on the turn vs a set of Qs or Js (as opposed to QJ or AQ, or KK, or AA), then I have one out on the river.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

I think it's just as likely to have been 2pr or TPGK. Could be AA, KK, AQ, or even AJ, depending on the read on the pf raiser. I'm going to have to pay to find out, that's for sure.

Re: Is this EVER not a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's just as likely to have been 2pr or TPGK. Could be AA, KK, AQ, or even AJ, depending on the read on the pf raiser. I'm going to have to pay to find out, that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]