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-   -   [censored][censored] Blind Steal (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407651)

12-30-2005 07:31 AM

[censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I've only got a piddly amount of hands on both villians. Treat them as unknowns.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero folds,


Good, bad or just plain ugly??

12-30-2005 08:39 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
If I count right there are 16 BB in the pot when it gets back to you. I'd be tempted to call and see what the river is. If it doesn't complete a straight or the flush I'd be real tempted to call this down. It would suck if SB had KJ and BB had 88 but that is the risk of stealing blinds, sometimes they have hands...

DavidC 12-30-2005 09:05 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
OOC, why did you call the flop?

Also, I think your turn fold was okay, but I've been giving weak-tight advice lately.

12-30-2005 09:18 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
why no flop raise? turn looks good, either a slowplayed set or straight. a call/cap is always a good hint to muck unless you got the goods/odds.

12-30-2005 11:56 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I like the fold. Not too sure what SB is playing with, AK?, but it def. looks like BB slowplayed a set. Either way I doubt 2 pair would hold up. I'd give BB more credit for KK than 88 b/c he called 2 SB preflop (unless of course he is looser in the BB).

car ramrod 12-30-2005 12:15 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
turn is a good fold

12-30-2005 12:20 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
grunch

i'm not folding two pair here for one bet.

at least see the river.

12-30-2005 12:23 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
hmm, two bets even, my mistake.

I don't want to fold here, maybe i'm a fish [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

bozlax 12-30-2005 12:36 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
Why no flop raise, Kwaz? TP, position, short handed? That might let you out cheaper on the turn, but I think you have to give it up when it's two back to you on the turn.

Pedigree 12-30-2005 12:41 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I think I'd have raised the flop.

As for the turn, you've got 8 to 1 odds. You only need 10.5 to 1 to draw to a full house. Anybody think that his 7 outs are good and he can make up the 2.5 bets on the river if he fills up? Probably not...

12-30-2005 02:14 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd have raised the flop.

As for the turn, you've got 8 to 1 odds. You only need 10.5 to 1 to draw to a full house. Anybody think that his 7 outs are good and he can make up the 2.5 bets on the river if he fills up? Probably not...

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 7 outs? I only see 4 (2xK &amp; 2x7)

Buckmulligan 12-30-2005 02:35 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
Let's raise that flop, unless for some reason you had a read you're not telling us about and was going to raise the turn UI.

DavidC 12-30-2005 03:30 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd have raised the flop.

As for the turn, you've got 8 to 1 odds. You only need 10.5 to 1 to draw to a full house. Anybody think that his 7 outs are good and he can make up the 2.5 bets on the river if he fills up? Probably not...

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 7 outs? I only see 4 (2xK &amp; 2x7)

[/ QUOTE ]

Read through this post again. Someone already mentioned why.

Pedigree 12-30-2005 03:38 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I was talking about the two 7s. The two Ks I'm assuming are good. The two 7s may not be because somebody could have JJ or 88. If I knew the 7s were clean I'd be tempted to call the two bets.

12-30-2005 06:13 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd have raised the flop.

As for the turn, you've got 8 to 1 odds. You only need 10.5 to 1 to draw to a full house. Anybody think that his 7 outs are good and he can make up the 2.5 bets on the river if he fills up? Probably not...

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 7 outs? I only see 4 (2xK &amp; 2x7)

[/ QUOTE ]

Read through this post again. Someone already mentioned why.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. i thought he meant 7 outs! not are the two 7s counted in his outs.

milesdyson 12-30-2005 06:31 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
dear Kwaz,

blind stealing may be censored in Australia, but it is not so in the USA.

sincerely,

miles

12-30-2005 06:37 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
dear Kwaz,

blind stealing may be censored in Australia, but it is not so in the USA.

sincerely,

miles

[/ QUOTE ]

USA! USA! USA!

12-30-2005 07:53 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
dear Kwaz,

blind stealing may be censored in Australia, but it is not so in the USA.

sincerely,

miles

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear Miles,

In a country whose censorship laws are so restrictive they had to censor scenes from "American Pie" and "The Girl Next Door" to make them suitable for cinema audiences, this is hilarious.

And although stealing from your neighbours for any reason is considered commonplace in America; you generally have to have a descent hand at the poker table to do the same.


Yours Sincerely,
Kwaz

[disclaimer] Before some crazy eyed American postal worker sends me a letter bomb for my remarks - this is a joke.[/disclaimer]

ZenMusician 12-30-2005 07:57 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
descent

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to love that game...

-ZEN

bozlax 12-30-2005 08:03 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
descent

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to love that game...

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

Made me nauseous.

12-30-2005 08:17 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I'd probably have to fold here. I don't think the kings are too live, and BB all of a sudden capping when the open ended hits on the turn doesn't look good. He might not have had it, but I don't think two pair would be good here with the action unless there is an overplayed AK involved and BB just being stupid.

12-30-2005 11:04 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
descent

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to love that game...

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

This is descent. lol.

12-31-2005 12:49 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
This is plain ugly imo. I would call this and reevaluate on the river. What do you think SB has??? Good post.

Black Peter 12-31-2005 01:36 AM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
I'm raising the flop. The turn fold was good, imo. You only got 4 outs for the boat. Not enuf BBs to make me call there.

DavidC 12-31-2005 02:45 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
Still curious about why you didn't raise the flop.

--Dave.

12-31-2005 03:32 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
Still curious about why you didn't raise the flop.

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

In hindsight, this would have been the best move. Boz said it best:
[ QUOTE ]

That might let you out cheaper on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time, I don't know how comfortable I'd have felt folding the turn UI if 3bet. I went into call down panic mode. I find I struggle in situations where both blinds call and I have a weak hand.
HU, I'm pretty sure I would have raised in a heartbeat. Top pair HU is a big hand. I suppose I felt very uncomfortable with TPWK in a 3handed pot. Especially with someone who 3bet and led out, and someone who practically coldcalled preflop and calls the 3bettors flop bet on a KQx board.



FWIW. SB showed KK and BB takes the pot with a turned straight (T9s).

12-31-2005 03:43 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
if it was 3bet to me on the turn i would cap it. as it is i call and am going to war on just about any river card

DavidC 12-31-2005 03:56 PM

Re: [censored][censored] Blind Steal
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Still curious about why you didn't raise the flop.

--Dave.

[/ QUOTE ]

In hindsight, this would have been the best move. Boz said it best:
[ QUOTE ]

That might let you out cheaper on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time, I don't know how comfortable I'd have felt folding the turn UI if 3bet. I went into call down panic mode. I find I struggle in situations where both blinds call and I have a weak hand.
HU, I'm pretty sure I would have raised in a heartbeat. Top pair HU is a big hand. I suppose I felt very uncomfortable with TPWK in a 3handed pot. Especially with someone who 3bet and led out, and someone who practically coldcalled preflop and calls the 3bettors flop bet on a KQx board.



FWIW. SB showed KK and BB takes the pot with a turned straight (T9s).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, those are pretty sickening results. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks for letting me know.

--Dave.


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