JJ hand that got ugly
 

This is a JJ hand I had recently that got ugly. Does anyone think you're ahead at the river? Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.



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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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A great question.

I've been playing with these donks for awhile at this table and could not imagine what I was ahead of on at that river when that guy bet out.

From seeing the guy play for awhile I could not imagine being ahead. Plus I think I was angry when I folded, but that's not a good excuse.

The pot was so big i should have called behind.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.



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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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When I raised the turn I wanted to find out where I was at. I expected one of them to fold, but they both called. I figure I can't win.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I prefer bet/folding the turn.

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This isn't an option here. Are you saying you'd just fold to the turn donkbet?

I'm not really sure what I'd do here -- if I think UTG+1 is capable of betting the turn when he picks up a flush draw, then I'd probably raise and try to convince BB to fold. I think that someone who just spiked a Q would be more likely to check/raise so a semi-bluff from UTG+1 looks like a definite possibility here.

But when he likes his hand enough to donk again on the river, and there's now two overcards to my J's plus the backdoor flush came in, I gotta think it's pretty likely I'm beat.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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The idea would be that if the villian still thinks he has the best hand on the river after all of the aggression shown by hero with a king and queen on the board, he probably does. And BB cold calling 2 on the turn when an overcard falls does not bode well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I prefer bet/folding the turn.


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This isn't an option here. Are you saying you'd just fold to the turn donkbet?


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That was my bad, I misread the action and thought hero check/raised.

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I'm not really sure what I'd do here -- if I think UTG+1 is capable of betting the turn when he picks up a flush draw, then I'd probably raise and try to convince BB to fold. I think that someone who just spiked a Q would be more likely to check/raise so a semi-bluff from UTG+1 looks like a definite possibility here.

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The real question is do we want BB to fold here. If we raise and BB calls, there's a very good chance we're behind. If we raise and BB folds, then we just got a hand like AK/AJ/AT/TT/99/etc to fold - only AK has 6 outs against us, the rest have 2-3 (or already have us beaten) and it's dubious whether we have the best hand anymore when UTG+1 wakes up. If we had 99 I'd like the raise better as there would be some value in getting TT/JJ to fold.

Raising may be the right play on the turn, but only if we think UTG+1 is semi-bluffing, not because we want BB to fold (well the exception would be if he has JJ, but it's unlikely and if he does he didn't play it well).

Of course if UTG+1 is not capable of semi-bluffing here then we should just fold to his bet.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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The idea would be that if the villian still thinks he has the best hand on the river after all of the aggression shown by hero with a king and queen on the board, he probably does. And BB cold calling 2 on the turn when an overcard falls does not bode well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Personally my turn line would have been (in order of preference and I may be weak)

1: Fold
2: Call
3: Raise

If I did call the turn, can I then call the river for the size of the pot?