Lottery at the +EV Point
 

The Powerball Lottery is at a record High, I'm wondering if anyone knows if it has reached +EV status to buy a ticket? I know you still need to factor in the chances of a divided jackpot.
Link:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/10/18/pow....ap/index.html

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

might be +ev, but varience is a bitch on lotto.

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

I figured this out in the probability forum once. It was like 120 million or so?

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

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The Powerball Lottery is at a record High, I'm wondering if anyone knows if it has reached +EV status to buy a ticket? I know you still need to factor in the chances of a divided jackpot.
Link:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/10/18/pow....ap/index.html

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Also factor in that the jackpots are paid out over a several year period. Money you are going to get several years in the future is worth much less than money you have today, making the jackpots worth significantly less than the numbers you see quoted in the headlines.

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

It's 180M-1 to hit the powerball jackpot. The jackpot is $340 million. Seems plus EV to me, but my (limited) understanding is the possibility of a split moves it closer to break even. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

Jeff

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

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. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

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Are you serious???

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

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. It's even worse if you factor in taxes and the penalty you pay for getting it lump sum (which even the biggest moron on Earth would do).

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Are you serious???

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Yes, no way I wouldn't take the lump sum in a lotto.

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

lump sum is BETTER! you will make WAY more in interest over those 25yrs than whatever the amount with annuity. the only reason to take annuity is if you cant control your spending. (50% of lottery winners go bankrupt within 5 yrs.)

See the Probability forum.

btw: $340M (~170M lump sum) is still -EV if you factor in the 40% in taxes (fed/state/city) you pay.

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

Oh sorry by bad, i misread the post. It is definitely much better to take the lump sum.

Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
 

Yes, you have to be a tard not to take the lump sum. When you take the lump sum the interest payments you recieve are a little less than the payouts you would recieve, but YOU STILL HAVE MILLIONS IN THE BANK. In this case taking the lump sum would work out to be worth tens of millions more than the monthly or whatever payouts.