Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

This hand is from my local card club's weekly three table $100 tournament. I am a regular in this game and am probably one of the top two or three players in the field. We are still in the first orbit and everyone involved still has right around their starting stack of T4000 with blinds at 50/100. The structure of the tourney is very much a crapshoot, which is fine with me as most of the players are loose early and weak tight late.

I am in the SB as 3 players limp to me and I complete with 5c6c. The BB, who is not very good, makes it 300. Everyone calls as do I, so there is 1500 in the pot as the flop comes 5s6d8d. I check, expecting to be able to check raise what I hope is the BB's big pair. He bets 500, one player folds and then a player that I don't know (but who seems to know what he is doing) raises to 1500. The button folds so it is back to me. What's my action?

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

hm.. well i'm not going to be able to get away from this, i dont think, and i dont think we have any FE anymore, so now i want to trry and get some more money out of BB. If we push, he's probably not going to call w/o a set, but if we just call, he might push his big pair.

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

All in.

Sb's cards are two high cards or overpair. Flop raiser know sb's range and is pushing with all top pair, pair + open ender, open ender + flush draw, any flush draw, two pair, and set. Against this range, all in is my move, and i think sb folds all overcard hands except for flush draws, and calls all overpairs. Raiser calls your raise everytime unless he has air. But since it is a crapshoot, that is exactly how you have to treat the situation. No shame is losing here with bottom two pair.

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

With the stack you have, I go all in here, I dont like folding or calling, the 1st player looks like it's not a problem and the second player who raised to 1500 could have 99,TT, 77 or a diamond draw. If he has 88, so be it. I push.

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

[ QUOTE ]
hm.. well i'm not going to be able to get away from this, i dont think, and i dont think we have any FE anymore, so now i want to trry and get some more money out of BB. If we push, he's probably not going to call w/o a set, but if we just call, he might push his big pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop raiser had A9d, gutshot and flush draw, and the pfr had an overpair, we are 44% to win the pot. If we get the pfr to fold an overpair, we are 58% to win.

1500 in preflop + the flop c-bet, plus 3700 from SB and flop raiser = 9400, which we could win 58% for a cEV of 5452.

If the PFR comes along, the pot would be 12600, which we win 44% of the time, a cEV of 5544.

Obviously, the flop raiser could have a different hand, but if we're one of the best players in the tournament, and the plays are close in EV, shouldn't we take the less risky of the 2 plays?

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

Particularly given the tourney structure you outline; I push. If he has 88, oh well. But a flush draw +pair (and/or overs) is much more likely. Make 'em pay to get there. And if all else fails; get full.

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

i agree with a push. there are a lot of draws that the second guy could be raising with, including pair+draw hands. i'd be pretty surprised if you're behind the BB.

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

considering against those yahoo's you could be pushing A8 for value, I'm certainly not afraid of the inevitable 97s from the MP player. tarzan and rebuy?

Re: Bottom Two Facing Heavy Flop Action
 

[ QUOTE ]
With the stack you have, I go all in here, I dont like folding or calling, the 1st player looks like it's not a problem and the second player who raised to 1500 could have 99,TT, 77 or a diamond draw. If he has 88, so be it. I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Results
 

After his weak continuation bet, I dismissed the original raiser as having just overcards, so I didn't think he was coming along regardless of my action. As for the MP raiser, my read on him was that he really liked his hand and had at the least a pair plus one of the draws, which makes sense considering the pre-flop action. I just couldn't come up with a hand range that left me at anything but a slight favorite/big dog (though obviously I would be a slight favorite much more often than not.) Reluctantly I mucked as did the pre-flop raiser, and the MP raiser proudly flipped over two red aces. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Obviously looking at the responses here I am a weak tight ninnie.....