im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

level is 2000/4000/200. 7 left. 6 get seats into a super sattelite. im utg so the blinds are coming up. but i can survive by folding and then its an even-shorter stacks turn to take the blinds. doubling would be very very nice and nearly guarentee a seat, but losing to an ace would be crushing as i would bubble out. push or fold here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (7 handed) converter

BB (t55540)
Hero (t13656)
MP1 (t27360)
MP2 (t10935)
CO (t29145)
Button (t23472)
SB (t12392)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

push, the others dont want to get bubbled out or get crippled for half their stack either

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

It looks like you'll be the first one forced all-in by the blinds, as they'll surely get up to 3000/6000 by the time they get back around to you (unless you stall enough in the SB and they increase before they get to MP2).

So, yeah, if the blinds are going to increase before it gets to you, push. If the blinds aren't going to increase in the next 2 minutes, push. If you're in that "sweet spot," you may be able to fold your way in.

This is close, though. I usually fold in these situations, but I think your stack's in an area where pushing QQ is acceptable.

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

This is really tough, I started replying to your post and I'm still not sure what to do, I love playing satellites where the top x get the same prize, I think they are my best game.

My gut says you gotta push, the fact that there is another short stack will actually help you. It means that MP1,CO,and Button wont risk over half their stack to bust you without AA,KK,and maybe AK. They will wait for the big stack in the BB to call. MP2 and SB obviously wont call without those premium hands either.

Its a tough call cause BB will probably call and if he has an ace or king you might be in trouble. It looks like if all the short stacks fold around then you will be first to be put all in in a blind, actually you will survive your SB the 2nd time around with 56 chips but you will be all in on the ante before the other short stacks get put all in.


The only other option I can think of is to fold past your blinds, and then when another short stack is in the BB you have to raise his blind and hope he doesnt call. That doesnt seem likely as you will be even shorter and you could get multiple calls at this point. The last option is keep folding and hope someone makes a donkey play, not really out of the question in the online world.

Still, I think you have to push, In these situations you always want to avoid playing a pot but the exception is when you are the player who would be put all in first if everyone folded their blinds. In this case, you have to do the extreme opposite, and be super aggressive and push these two queens.

I feel much better about pushing now that I have written all this.

--LoO

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

these rebuy turbo satellites are my favorite game by far right now. i find it very easy to make my way to the bubble witnh a decent stack and then hopefully outplay the rest and not get a beat put on me.

in this one i had a decent stack heading towards the bubble and then didnt steal enough in position with my healthier stack. i let myself get down to this level by convincing myself it would be over before i got low. but 3 short stacks doubled up and my chips got blinded off.

after some thought i think i have to push because theres a very good chance the short stacks dont bust out on the next round and then im in the blind nearly all-in.

thanks guys

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

I think you have to push here. QQ is just too strong to fold, and your stack is large enough to intimidate everybody but BB. Now, if you had 40k and covered everybody but BB -- then the question is a little more difficult, IMO.

Oh, and you're only behind 2 hands here, so you don't mind getting called. Sure, it sucks to lose to a lone overcard, but it'll be hard to find a bigger edge than this, and you aren't in a position to just fold into the top six.

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

Here is how this question should be rephrased:

You're a little under 70/30 vs. the typical big stack call range. Do you have a 70/30 chance of folding in?

Answer: let's say you try to fold in. Perhaps someone will push and get called first, and perhaps not. However, some of the time that happens, they will win at showdown, so overall, I would estimate your chances of not having to win with a random hand at maybe 30-40%. Between that and the random hand part, I think you have enough equity in folding to fold AK, but not QQ, assuming you *always* get called.

However, no one except the BB will call you without a monster and the BB should probably fold *some* of his hands, so sometimes you'll take the blinds without a showdown. That means I'd probably push AK, TT+ here.

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to push here. QQ is just too strong to fold, and your stack is large enough to intimidate everybody but BB. Now, if you had 40k and covered everybody but BB -- then the question is a little more difficult, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to push here. QQ is just too strong to fold, and your stack is large enough to intimidate everybody but BB. Now, if you had 40k and covered everybody but BB -- then the question is a little more difficult, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had 40k should I just fold my way in or should I make a 3-4x bb raise and call any pushes other than the BB? I've always folded my way in if I was one of the comfortable chipleaders on the absolute bubble.

Re: im in satellite bubble hell - EPT rebuy sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to push here. QQ is just too strong to fold, and your stack is large enough to intimidate everybody but BB. Now, if you had 40k and covered everybody but BB -- then the question is a little more difficult, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had 40k should I just fold my way in or should I make a 3-4x bb raise and call any pushes other than the BB? I've always folded my way in if I was one of the comfortable chipleaders on the absolute bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold QQ with 40K. I would generally fold it with 20K. It is pretty obvious that is what Andathar meant.