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-   -   Difficult Turn Decision (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407055)

Mempho 12-29-2005 11:12 AM

Difficult Turn Decision
 
Party Poker (9 handed) $600 NL converter

Stacks: Hero $2935.00
BTN $795.40

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>.

MP1 calls $6, Hero raises $30 (there is an late position poster in the CO), 2 folds, button calls $30, MP1 folds


Pot: $75


Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>.

Hero bets $37, Button raises to $74, Hero raises to $137...Button calls $136

(Should I have bet more on the flop here or is this OK???)

Pot: $421

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

<font color="red">What's the best line here? </font>

12-29-2005 11:45 AM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
Any tells on MP1s plaiying style? Let's assume "no."

Your buddy, just from his betting pattern here, seems like a guy who is in control of his game and who has some conception of pot odds, value betting, etc. From the pattern, looks like he was on a mega draw and was raising just a bit to: a. check you out; and, b. to build the pot to a reasonable size without costing him too much $$ in the process. He accomplishes both of his goals. Your raise to "137," to me, is just as much an announcement of a big hand as a raise to 250. You're not giving him GREAT odds for a call on the flush draw. But, if I had a mega draw and, considering the possible implied odds, I'm gladly calling here. Most importantly, since you are out of position, you aren't exactly making things easy for yourself on the turn if a scare card arrives on this already reasonably scare board. You really should try to take this one down now or really charge him for his draw. Put that raise up to 250 - 275.

You're not in horrible shape on the turn, of course. My best line is to start yelling out expletives at the computer and then pop in Tiger Woods Golf '05. But, that's just me. I think YOUR best line is to check and hope your opponent gives you decent odds to a full house draw. Otherwise, fold. Am I about to get yelled at here? I don't see many hands you are ahead of given this action. If your opponent is smart, any value bet here is just going to bet pummeled by an all-in. If you bet out 300 or so, then MAYBE your opponent folds, but I just doubt it. He might call, but if he does, you haven't given yourself good odds on the river. I say check and hope you get some good odds from a nitty player.

Gregg777 12-29-2005 12:31 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think YOUR best line is to check and hope your opponent gives you decent odds to a full house draw. Otherwise, fold. Am I about to get yelled at here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a nasty spot without a read, I am checking here as well. Villain isn't folding to a bet.

If he hit, hopefully he thinks you have an over pair and are scared of the turn, so he'll bet weak to try to keep you in, giving you odds for the boat.

It's hard to fold this without a read on villain.

Mempho 12-29-2005 12:35 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
At the moment, I'll just supply villain's stats since I would like to wait for some more replies before giving results...but villain is 20.44/4.44/0.62 over 225 hands. His agression on the flop and turn has been 1.42/1.40 respectively and he has an agression of zero on the river in 14 possible actions.

The only thing to add is that this guy seems to have "followed" me from NL400 but I can't be sure. He may think of me as a mega-fish and he loves to float me...probably b/c I PFR a lot (maybe too much).

emil3000 12-29-2005 12:48 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
Your flop play is super ugly.

Gregg777 12-29-2005 12:59 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
With those stats and aggression bet the turn. It's hard to put someone tight/passive on only a draw on the flop with that action.

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, should have pushed to his raise.

Mempho 12-29-2005 01:15 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure don't mind the criticsm...care to elaborate?

Slappz 12-29-2005 01:50 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your flop play is super ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure don't mind the criticsm...care to elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

That flop is insanely draw heavy, you dont want to be underbetting the flop, and after he raised you, you want to throw in a real potsized re-raise (225-250). I would check the turn.

Leptyne 12-29-2005 02:18 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker (9 handed) $600 NL converter

Stacks: Hero $2935.00
BTN $795.40

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>.

MP1 calls $6, Hero raises $30 (there is an late position poster in the CO), 2 folds, button calls $30, MP1 folds


Pot: $75


Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>.

Hero bets $37, Button raises to $74, Hero raises to $137...Button calls $136

(Should I have bet more on the flop here or is this OK???)

Pot: $421

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

<font color="red">What's the best line here? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely a tough spot, OOP with middle set v. a flopped str8 with a flush draw. Typical WA/WB situation. However, this villain is a Rock. You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise. It's hard to see a Rock calling a raise with 78s. first to act I'm firing an overbet of $100 which is intended to inform that if you're on a draw you better plan on hitting it on the turn (4-1) cause I've got the Big Stack and I'm going to push a blank turn.

If I get smoothcalled then I put him all-in on a blank turn and check if a club hits. When he bets I figure I'm WB and a 4-1 dog, so I've either got odds or I don't.

If I get raised on the flop then we're getting all the money in now. Depending on his raise amount I may push or put him where he's got to fold or push. Here I'm thinking it feels more like set over set.

Your flop lead smells weak and invites a raise, but the min-raise smells weak to me. At this point a pot-sized raise would be $225 to make it $300 to play. This gives villain 2-1 on his money to make his draw on the turn which is 4-1, and it will be an additional 2-1 as a 4-1 dog to see the river. The point of this is to encourage villain to put his money in getting incorrect odds.

If villain has a set and wants to push the flop then its fine with me.

Mempho 12-29-2005 02:33 PM

Re: Difficult Turn Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]

You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what made this difficult. I was looking super-LAG on this table but it was because I'd been running hot (see stack size). I had been getting premium and otherwise raisable hands a lot and I was at about 30/15....which is about 50% higher than my normal preflop stats would indicate. Also, my flop aggression was running high as a result of good made hands and continuation bets...about 7.00. This makes me think that I could get him to push the flop with TPTK/Any 2 pair and hence the "crappy" flop bet. Nevertheless, in retrospect, I need to bet the flop harder because a) he's so rocky he might not play TPTK this way on this board even against a LAG and b) I still should not be giving him correct odds for a flush or nut str8 draw. I was trying to "invite" him to push here and quite frankly, he has never struck me as the type to raise a naked flush or str8 draw...even against me.


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