99 - Fold or call river?
 

All I have on villain is his pokertracker stats after ~60 hands, they are 20.1/6.9/1.7, with a WTSD of 15%. Call or fold river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($346.84)
MP ($425.90)
Button ($193.10)
SB ($153)
BB ($115.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, SB calls $15.

Turn: ($48) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, SB calls $40.

River: ($128) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls $90 (All-In), Hero...?

Dumle

Re: 99 - Fold or call river?
 

Sure does look like a flush, don't it?

I think you can probably fold here. I can't see any hand you're ahead of playing like this except for a bluff, and this is a pretty elaborate bluff.

The only thing I see you ever being ahead of here is QT, or a complete donkey's A5

He probably had a big combo draw or JJ.

Re: 99 - Fold or call river?
 

Call. We know he doesn't have the As, so that reduces the amount of hands that would be drawing to a flush. With those stats, it's probably only KQs, maybe KJs or JQs. The times he has a bigger set, you can't really do much. I think I see a big ace or AJ a lot of the time. Remember, you have to be right less than 1/3rd of the time.

Re: 99 - Fold or call river?
 

I think I see a big ace or AJ a lot of the time.

Really? I would think he would like to get to showdown as cheaply as possible with a big ace here and not push when it seems like I have a strong hand, no?

Dumle

Results
 

I folded.

Dumle

Re: Results
 

I think you see KJ of spades very often here, nice fold