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-   -   Take a shot? T7s (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403870)

StellarWind 12-23-2005 02:57 AM

Take a shot? T7s
 
10/20 6-max (6-handed)

Hero is SB with T7s.

Preflop: 40/10 UTG limps, Hero completes, 50/10 BB checks.

Flop is Q86r. There are 3 SB in the pot. You have a strong gutshot, a backdoor flush draw with the queen, and a runner-runner backdoor straight draw.

Do you bet?

Lmn55d 12-23-2005 03:03 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
I don't think a bet is +EV here. There are just too many hands that your opponents will call with, like A5 or 9T.

Stack 12-23-2005 03:45 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
Against a 40/10 and a 50/10, no. Open my eyes please.

12-23-2005 03:56 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
against lps I valuebet hands already on the board like mid pair, counting on them to go too far with weak draws.

with unamazing draws I check hoping for a freecard

sweetjazz 12-23-2005 04:14 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
SW: I think it is best to check. I think you are raised too often by a pair and don't take the pot down often enough with your bet.

If the players are on the bad end of the spectrum in terms of postflop play, I would usually call if BB bets and UTG overcalls. Your totality of outs (including 1-2 pair outs) and superior postflop judgment makes this play profitable.

I'd be more inclined to fire out a bet on the turn if it gets checked around, depending on how I feel the opponents will react to the particular turn card.

Alobar 12-23-2005 04:22 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
depends on what they are like post flop. Im only betting here if I have some chance that they both fold along with my draws. If they are the "press call button and pray" types, then no, I check and hope I see the turn for free.

This is close to being a good board for that tho (them folding), but there are better boards. But again, some people will still call a flop bet on a K83r with Q7, so it all comes down to their tendancies

Surfbullet 12-23-2005 04:55 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a bet is +EV here. There are just too many hands that your opponents will call with, like A5 or 9T.

[/ QUOTE ]

StellarWind 12-23-2005 05:13 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
I checkfolded to UTG's bet. Wondered if I'd been too wimpy about it.

Sounds like a resounding "no" from the gallery. Thanks guys.

cartman 12-23-2005 05:33 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
I think checking is best. These guys will just find too may excuses to call a flop bet.

Cartman

sweetjazz 12-23-2005 05:39 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think checking is best. These guys will just find too may excuses to call a flop bet.

Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

But...but...all the other guys were calling the flop too...

The dog ate my fold button...

Plus I had two live undercards and a runner-runner draw to a flush draw.

Wynton 12-23-2005 11:12 AM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
[ QUOTE ]
I checkfolded to UTG's bet. Wondered if I'd been too wimpy about it.

Sounds like a resounding "no" from the gallery. Thanks guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would check, because I'm afraid that I'll be raised too often. But I think it's reasonable to peel for one bet, particularly if bb is the bettor, enabling you to close the betting.

I think it's probably ok to call the bet from utg also, because a c/r seems relatively unlikely from bb.

Danenania 12-23-2005 02:14 PM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
This is one of those where betting seems to make some sense on paper, but after playing a couple 100k hands of 10/20 you realize that a bet gets called or raised in this spot 90-95% of the time.

Trix 12-23-2005 02:17 PM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
IŽd bet if it was K86, but I check this.

12-23-2005 03:55 PM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those where betting seems to make some sense on paper, but after playing a couple 100k hands of 10/20 you realize that a bet gets called or raised in this spot 90-95% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Stellar just moved up to 10/20. What's funny about the above statement is this:

As a general rule of thumb, you'd think there was more FE in 10/20 than there is in 5/10. On PP, the exact opposite is true. There's more FE in 5/10. Party is really amazing.

Dane, I think your 90%-95% numbers are very close to reality in 10/20. I also think those numbers are more like 75%-80% in 5/10 (which is where Stellar is coming from).

What happens in 10/20...especially if you're the PFR:

Flop comes xxx, they put you on AK.
Flop comes Axx, they put you on KQ.
Flop comes KQx, they put you on A5s.
Flop comes AKQ, they put you on 44.

Whatever the board is, they always find a way for their hand to be good or improvable and a rationalization to call. If they can no longer win by hitting, they will raise the turn. When I say "they", I'm not talking about the LPPs or the weak-tighties, but more about the 30/22s and 38/26s that have no clue how to play the style they chose. Every one of those players tries to win every hand they can. 10/20 6 max on Party is swarming with these types. Only a few successful players have actually mastered the "Nikla style".

Stellar, whatever you do, please don't fall into the 10/20 trap. And please don't bet that ten high hand.

sweetjazz 12-23-2005 05:00 PM

Re: Take a shot? T7s
 
It's funny, but I have found myself initially playing in exactly the style Our House describes at the 10/20, much to my detriment. Not the ridiculous hand reads, but the desire to try to take pots away when I miss with my marginal hands and to overplay my draws. It is very tempting to do so when I am running bad and not hitting the board often (or hitting it but making second best hands a lot). From my perspective, it feels like my aggressiveness should now get respect because I have been forced to back down lately.

But realistically, the other people aren't paying attention and just want to out-aggress you. The game, in some respect, is still as easy as wait for big hands and pound them (though you have to adjust what "big hand" means especially SH and take into account the board texture more carefully). The way the middle limit SH hold 'em games play on party, the key is not trying to steal little pots here and there anymore than you naturally get with continuation bets; the key is just value-betting the heck out of your good hands.

Here's a hand from memory from the other night:
I raise UTG+1 in a 6 handed game (10/20) and I am called by the BB. Flop comes AQ9r. He bets, I raise, he calls. Turn is J. He checks, I bet, he calls. River is a K (no flush). He checks, I bet, he calls. I have AK, he has 97.


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