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-   -   QQ in the BB again, do I call all in? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=40706)

Acesover8s 07-29-2003 11:23 AM

QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
Ok, 2-4NLHE. Somehow by the grace of god I've run my buyin up to $600. Player on the button has $1100 and in the last 10 minutes has raised or reraised all in 4 or 5 times, no one has called and he has shown hands as weak as A6 and as strong as 55.

Two limpers. He pushes all in. I'm in the BB with QQ. While I am not completely without gamble, as the stakes increase so does my sobriety.

Call or fold, and is it close?


tang 07-29-2003 11:39 AM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
In this situation you have to do this:

Take your hand, reach between your legs and and feel around. If you find two balls, the decision is obvious.

Oh, if you say, "Ok let's gamble! I call!" and flip over QQ, that might make him tilt even more, which is good.

Jon Matthews 07-29-2003 01:48 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
If all his reraise all-in's have been in a similar situation preflop then call, it's probably the only chance you'll get to make a quick $600. It's either a coin flip or he's got an underpair.

There are only 2 hands you are a dog to and if you come up against them you can console yourself afterwards by convincing yourself it was just your buyin you lost!


Rather you than me though!


Jon

Daithi 07-29-2003 02:35 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
I think your a pretty big favorite here based on his past betting, and I think you know this as well.

The question is are you willing to risk $600 on a wager where you have the best of it? If I was a 2-1 favorite but would have to wager my car and house, I'd turn the wager down. I wouldn't even risk $5,000 because I couldn't afford to lose the wager.

The question of betting $600 on the turn of a card only you can answer (but I'd take that one).

RollaJ 07-29-2003 03:03 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
Much like the hand I posted yesterday, It seems you do not think that you are behind, rather you fear losing your "hard earned" stack. If he has made this move 5 times in 10 minutes he is almost certainly betting hands worse than yours, especially if there is limper money in there to be taken by fear.
One way to look at it is like this: If he had $10 and pushed you all in for $6 you would obviously call, considering his past behavior at the table. So to me that dictates what the right poker play was. That being said however, If you feel very uncomfortable with the possibility of losing the money, even if you assume its a 20% chance, then you can fold, and you have only lost your blind. You can then leave the table and bet your money where you have a bigger edge.
JMHO

gavrilo 07-29-2003 03:14 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
If he he has been raising like this and you can't push all-in with QQ, you should probably step down a limit..

ArtVandelay 07-29-2003 03:36 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
Do you think there's any chance he's shown enough hands now he will only do this with AA/KK/AK? Also, do you think one of the limpers has a big hand and was hoping for a chance to get it all-in? If one of these is true about 50% of the time then you can probably fold, but given your description this seems unlikely. Otherwise you simply have to call. Even if $600 is a lot of money to you, you clearly are willing to risk it all, otherwise you wouldn't be playing (right?). Do you really think you're going to have an opportunity much better than this to get all your money in?

Acesover8s 07-29-2003 04:01 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 

Thanks for the responses guys, something to show my g/f who had to put up with my mood after I called and lost to KK when we both made a flush.

It seems I see a lot of players set up this kind of move, make huge raises 2 or 3 times with bluffs and then when you finally call them they've got it.

As far as stepping down, the poster is probably right. I do not have the "Emotional Bankroll" to lose pots like that, as they ruin my income for the next couple of days.


DJA 07-29-2003 04:48 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
I would worry more about the limpers then I would about the all-in raiser... if he is playing as you describe.

What would the 2 limpers limp with if they know this guy has been putting in the huge all-in raise 4 out of the last 5 times... You know what I would limp with in this situation, AA, KK, and QQ. I have no problem putting my money in with QQ against the maniac, but I do against the limpers if they are good players... They have to be limping with something if they realize what this player is capable of doing.

RollaJ 07-30-2003 09:57 AM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
That suck, but as EVERYONE said before this seems like the play to make 99.9% of the time......just a tough break

nicky g 07-30-2003 10:52 AM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
"It seems I see a lot of players set up this kind of move, make huge raises 2 or 3 times with bluffs and then when you finally call them they've got it."
This doesn't strike me as setting up a move - he's jst a lunatic who got lucky. He couldn't know that a better hand wouldn't call him those other times.

ArtVandelay 07-30-2003 03:15 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
From the way your post was originally written, you make it sound like this player would push all-in with any ace or any pair. In this case you expect to be against a better pair only 1 time in 21.4. When the cards were turned over, you were beaten. When you expect something is really unlikely and it happens, this often means you were wrong about how likely it was. Yes, it could be you were just unlucky, but you need to seriously consider the probability that you misevaluated the situation. I'm not trying to make you feel bad or anything, just pointing out that you should try to learn from this experience and make sure that it really was fair to put him on a wide range of hands. For example, the other times he put all that money in were there no big stacks left to act? Did he do it even when there were two limpers to him? Of the times he did it, how many of the hands did he show? Etc., etc. Good luck.

RollaJ 07-31-2003 10:56 AM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
According to the post,out of about 10 hands (10 minutes at 60 hands an hour) the guy pushes all in 4 or 5 times (40-50% of the time) how can you not call when only behind to exactly 2 hand combinations. As I said, it just suck(ed) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Copernicus 07-31-2003 01:49 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If he he has been raising like this and you can't push all-in with QQ, you should probably step down a limit..

[/ QUOTE ]

Or dont play NL.

tewall 07-31-2003 04:05 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
If the $600 makes you uncomfortable, cash out, and play another game. When you get to a level of discomfort, quit playing.

As another poster said, if it were an all-in bet of $11 and you needed to call with a stack of $6 (everything else proportional), given your description of the guy, you would call in a flash, expect to win, and not be too upset if you lost.

Good luck.

ArtVandelay 07-31-2003 04:33 PM

Re: QQ in the BB again, do I call all in?
 
> According to the post,out of about 10 hands (10 minutes at 60 hands an hour) the guy pushes all in 4 or 5 times (40-50% of the time) how can you not call when only behind to exactly 2 hand combinations. As I said, it just suck(ed)

My comment was aimed directly at Acesover8s. I agree that if he accurately portrayed the situation then yes, he did get unlucky. But my point was that he may be trying to justify things after the fact or something, and I was hoping he would get a hand history and see if it really was 4-5 times in the last minute or something less extreme. And like I said, it's possible the guy only did this when there were small stacks still in the hand, in which case he's totally suckering the big stacks by looking more aggressive than he really will be against them. Of course no one who consistantly pushes all-in pre-flop that frequently can be a winning player, but that doesn't mean you're making money off him. And again, I'm just pointing out that purely statistically, if you think something is really unlikely and then it happens you should re-examine your estimation proceedure. When all the money is in and you get sucked out on at 43-1 on the last card, most 2+2 posts assume that the game is fair, so everyone agrees it's bad luck. But when the probability is simply someone's estimate, it's unlikely they believe in themselves strongly enough to attribute the result entirely to bad luck. Maybe when Acesover8s goes back and looks at a history of the last however many hands he will indeed decide that his evaluation was right, but I'm just pointing out that he should make sure to do so.


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