Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

Hey guys,

I'm gonna start posting hands again, hopefully every day I get on here. It's been way too long.

Good 30 game. Limper is unknown, but his numbers appear loose'ish. Button is pretty bad preflop and on the flop.

Three folds and MP limps. Folded to me and I raise with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in LMP. CO folds, Button calls, blinds fold, limper calls. 3 to the flop for 7.5 SB's.

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet, Button calls, MP folds. HU for 4.75 BB's.

Turn comes: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, Button calls.

River comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, Button bets, I raise.

I play AK or AJ the same way, FWIW.

GoT

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

My bad...I'm the original donkey around here and if I look back I think I used that term first, calling myself one, of course.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
GoT, the title of you post, is JTs and you are holding KJo?

Edit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I have no idea what you're talking about.

GoT

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I wish I had something to say. I really like this hand. Especially after reading the post complaining about the quality of hands in the forum. The way you played it would never occur to me. I guess I have a lot of learning to do.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I dig pf through the turn.

The river, however, is where it gets interesting.
Villain could be betting 3 things:

1. PP<9 or K -- a bluff, essentially. He's not paying off a raise here, so EVcalling = EVraising.
2. A Q or 9 -- he's going to call every time and raise sometimes (where you won't pay off ever), raise is -1BB against calling.
3. Ace-high -- does he fold here enough for your raise to work?

The way the hand plays out, I think your hand is good here a decent % of the time, actually, as villain seems to have JT, Ax[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or a low PP to call along like that. There's an outside chance he plays QJs like this, though, too.

I think villain may lay down A-high here just enough to make this profitable.

Very interesting.

-d

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I play AK or AJ the same way, FWIW.

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what about AQ? it seems by your omission you bet, but then what other legit hands do you checkraise?

(I say legit not in terms of winning when called or getting him to fold, but in terms of "beating an ace kicker")

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

Took me about 30 seconds to get it. He's got an ace at best, and no way he can call the check raise. Bad player would have raised somewhere if he had a Q or 9, you've only represented stregnth. Nice hand that I probably would have lost. Thanks

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play AK or AJ the same way, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about AQ? it seems by your omission you bet, but then what other legit hands do you checkraise?

(I say legit not in terms of winning when called or getting him to fold, but in terms of "beating an ace kicker")

[/ QUOTE ]

What about 77/88? Other than the chance your ahead, the bluff raise will work just as often...

-d

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain may lay down A-high here just enough to make this profitable.

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I really doubt he's value betting ace-high here--don't you think he'd be happy to check it behind? Not much of a read to go on but "pretty bad preflop and on the flop," doesn't seem to me he'd be savvy enough to put GoT on an u/i ace and try to get all of what looks like a split pot.

I can't say that I'd think to make this play, but it seems really solid. I just don't see this guy being able to call very often and it pretty clearly looks like he has neither a queen or a nine.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

Will this play work against low limit players? This seems like a play that has a much higher EV at higher limits.

I love this play with AJ or AK, since you're most likely chopping at worst, and could get him to fold an A here quite often.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I guess I'm specifically asking about Q hands, TT, JJ, KK, AA. then there's A high for which I can expect a split, K high which is probably borderline but can expect him to fold K high, and J high or worse for which I really would like him to fold any K high or A high


I ain't ahead with no 88 here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I like the play w/ AK and AJ also, which I'm sure is your point, because you're representing those hands. How does the button play the flop bad? If he is usually too aggressive, then you can rule out a Q or much of a piece of that flop.

If he thinks you have an UI ace, he's likely to raise on on the flop or turn somewhere.

I'm thinking villain has 88 or so, and that was a good c/r for value. AK he's 3betting preflop, AQ he's popping it somewhere, AJ or worse he isn't CC. Any PP higher than the 99 he's popping it somewhere too, so I think K high is good here.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

From OP description of the button, I think we can include Ax in his range of hands.

I guess I feel like a crappy post flop player here is calling with his A more often than not. That being said, I don't think this play has to work more than 50% of the time to be profitable. So yeah, I like it.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I don't know about at those limits, but down at 2/4 and 3/6 there are alot of guys who can play a Q or a 9 this way. With a specific read this makes more sense to me, but against unknowns at those levels I think it's just spewing.

I'm very likely to be wrong though.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

So the assumption here is that villan was bluffing at the river and is going to fold for 1 more bet or that K high is good here?

sorry to be dense ...

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the assumption here is that villan was bluffing at the river and is going to fold for 1 more bet or that K high is good here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

Sometimes K-high is good here, (against PPs<9 and JT), and those times this raise is as good as a call, since he'll almost never bluff-3bet.

It's the other times we're concerned about, we want to encourage villain to lay down A/K high.

-d

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

Thanks - that's a new one for me.

good [censored] ...

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

thank you for posting this

this is a perfect example of a hand that should be posted here

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

So a bad player will usually raise with a 9 or Q on the flop or turn into the PF raiser?

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I'd like to have more of a read on the button, but such is life in a world of incomplete information.

I like this play better than if the turn-river had come Q-9 (instead of 9-Q). The way the hand has played decreases the likelihood of button having a Q (probably would have raised the flop) or a 9 (probably would have raised the turn).

From this hand only, button looks pretty passive here. But I don't know if there is any opponent you can lay down to here (absent a great read), because checking the river OOP on a double-paired borad is screaming for a bluff, even to the most casual player. You don't have to fold an A or a K too often here to make raising better than just calling....but I still think it is pretty marginal. I'm always amazed how many bad players have a hand like Q7 or T9 here.

I think I would much prefer a check-call line with AK or AJ, though. The possibility of folding an A is what makes me think that check-raising with KJ may be best.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I think this is a good bet if you feel he will lay down Ax 1/4 of the time, which I think he probably would.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would much prefer a check-call line with AK or AJ, though. The possibility of folding an A is what makes me think that check-raising with KJ may be best.

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This is the exact reason the check-raise is such a good play with AK or AJ. No one, and I mean no one, is 3 betting a check-raise with less than a boat there. An ace may fold, so you add a bit of value. Stealing what would be a split pot is really quite a coup.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

There's a lot of different kinds of bad players. Too passive, Too aggro, Too loose, Too tight and Too weak are the common types (don't mean to state the obvious)

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I still like this raise holding an ace. You are gaining 4BB if he folds an ace, losing nothing if he calls with one and only losing 1BB when he reraises (assuming a fold). I think him having and laying down an A is probably at least 1/4 as likely as him coming back over the top here or calling with a better hand.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is the exact reason the check-raise is such a good play with AK or AJ. No one, and I mean no one, is 3 betting a check-raise with less than a boat there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to back this up, I don't think that even a 9s full would raise here.

I did not underestand this play when I first read it half an hour ago (like the many things that I don't underestand in this game) but it's amaizing how a good post can open your mind and make you think beyond the "standard".

I hope you will keep your promise and post one hand each day. Thank you.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just to back this up, I don't think that even a 9s full would raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just to back this up, I don't think that even a 9s full would raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

also agree...does a 9's full FOLD here? And how bad is the Villain PF that he CC's w/ a 9?


I think there is a slight chance he folds 9's full here, but there is less chance he has a 9. I'm seeing more and more that this is a huge read dependant play. And I don't like it w/ as little information as we have on him.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

*Maybe* 9's full folds. I doubt it, but maybe. But I really doubt he's holding a 9. Big A, PP, seems likely.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

JJ or TT is something that a Bad PF player wouldn't 3 bet, and would also explain the passive play w/ the Over card on board. I think these are pretty likely now.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I explained my logic poorly in the previous post. What I meant was that folding an A gives us more (half a pot more) with KJ, plus we also get half a pot more if we fold K high. This might be enough to make check-raising right with KJ and wrong with A high.

FWIW, I am check-raising with a Q here against any semi-aggressive opponent (i.e. is not suffering from rigor mortis). I think this will induce bluffs, and that A high will call the check-raise here a lot of the time. It may also induce a 3-bet from 9's full if the opponent is really loose and aggressive.

Of course, with a 9, I'm betting out and calling a raise.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm seeing more and more that this is a huge read dependant play. And I don't like it w/ as little information as we have on him.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you mean. One might need less of a read in the 30/60 level than in the 3/6 level to make this play profitable.

But I do agree that at 2/4 or 3/6, I wouldn't try this without a good read on my opponent.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

He needs to lay down Ax more than 1/4 of the time. Laying it down 1/4 of the time will profit it us only if we are assuming that he has Ax. And you're comparing check-raising to folding, which ignores the fact that we likely have to at least call in case he's bluffing with a counterfeited two pair or JT.

He could well have TT, JJ, AA, KK, a Q or a 9, and I bet he does have these hands a not insignificant proportion of the time.

I think he has to be a player who will bet A high in the first place when checked to, in order for this analysis to even get started. Then, let us assume that 30% of the time he's betting a hand above that beats us and is not folding to a check-raise (though if he folds TT or JJ here....that's great for us), 20% he's betting a busted draw or small PP that can't call our check-raise, and 50% of the time he has Ax. Let's assume that there is an x probability he will fold Ax to the check-raise. (For simplicity, let's assume he doesn't have Kx.)

Then our check-raise nets us: -2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x of the time, and -2BB .5(1-x) of the time. This equals -0.6 + 1.6 + 4x - (1 - x) = 5x BB.

Just calling nets us, -1 BB 80% of the time and +8 BB 20% of the time, which is +0.8 BB.

Thus, we need 5x > 0.8 or x > 0.16.

For AJ, the analysis would be:
-2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x, +4 BB .5(1 - x), which amounts to an EV of 2x + 3 BB if we raise.
And -2 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +4 BB 50% of the time, which amounts to an EV of 3 BB if we just call.

Interestingly, this gives x > 0.

If this model is reasonable, check-raising with KJ is better than calling (and also better than folding, which should be obvious). And check-raising with AJ here is even better.

Two possible flaws with the model:
(1) We're assuming villain has Ax a lot here. If there is some chance he would check behind with Ax in this spot, that must be accounted for.
(2) We're assuming he won't bluff 3-bet us off the best hand here ever. That's a pretty reasonable assumption, but it should be noted nevertheless.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I wouldn't discount how important the read is at 30/60. At 3/6 and lower you aren't going to find anyone that this play will be affective. The read is equally important at both levels.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
The read is equally important at both levels.



[/ QUOTE ]

Oh absolutely. What I meant is that with the amount of reads available to GOT at the 30 game, he made that play. I don't know if he would make that play with the same amount of reads at 3/6. He would need a more precise read at these lower levels.

I've never played that high, so this is just how I feel. I'm sure he'll jump in if I'm wrong.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

I understand what you're saying. You would need a very specific read on someone at 3/6 to make this play. And I am adding to that, that it is highly highly unlikely that you will find anyone at that lower level that something like this would work.

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

That is a beautiful play.

I learned something
 

After I finished playing last night I was watching GoT and then played for him while he went to look for something. After he came back I kept playing while he watched and this hand came up. If it hadn't been for the combination of talking with him about similar plays and this thread I would NEVER have thought of this play. As soon as the river card hit I thought it looked like a good place to try to steal the pot, then he said, "see, this is a spot where I'd try a river check raise." I haven't had a moment like that, where something completely new clicked, in long time...it was pretty exciting.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Re: I learned something
 

what do you put button on prior to him folding to the check-raise?

Re: Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP
 

[ QUOTE ]
My bad...I'm the original donkey around here and if I look back I think I used that term first, calling myself one, of course.

Edited by Joe Tall (06/10/05 04:08 PM)


[/ QUOTE ]

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