World Series Game 3
 

CWS are going off at +164 at pinny. i'm very very tempted.

I'll post my plays once i actually make them.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

i dont know what the line should be, the other side of this is that oswalt is very, very good. he is not to be [censored] with.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

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i dont know what the line should be, the other side of this is that oswalt is very, very good. he is not to be [censored] with.

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After watching his last 2 in person...I agree

I see value on the Stros until it gets +200 for the White Sox. Garland is good....Oswalt is pitching at Cy Young speed

Re: World Series Game 3
 

I haven't capped it yet but this is too wide. Oswalt is good. But... the pen is shaken, not stirred. They are in shambles. White Sox appear to be team of destiny. Garland leads AL in shuouts and Astros lead NL in getting shutout.

Laying any decent amount of wood here probably isn't a real good bet.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

CWS +170 1 unit
Under 7 1/2 unit

Re: World Series Game 3
 

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CWS +170 1 unit


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This is phenominally good edge. I just grabbed some (at Pinny) +171. This game is much more even than this line indicates and Oswalt gets much more "name" respect than Garland even though the talent gap between them is very small.

Home field is big for Astros (especially with roof closed) but White Sox counter as outstanding road warriors. Roof is still a question mark but either way this line is too wide. Astros pen is in mental disarray. Lidge is a mess and Qualls is probably still a bit shaken after a one pitch 4 spot. Sox are loose and Astros will be pressing.

Disregard all comments due to my homerism if you must but my unbiased spreadsheet says real big edge on the White Sox tonight.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

I agree, and have laid large on the Sox tonight. That might be an indication that Houston wins, since I've lost about a million units on the playoffs this year. Chicago has smelled blood in each series once they had an advantage, and haven't let up on the gas. I would expect the same tonight. Sox rout.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

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That might be an indication that Houston wins, since I've lost about a million units on the playoffs this year.

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At least you've only lost a million units on one sport. My baseball playoffs and NFL plays have been ridiculously awful the past couple of weeks.

P.S. I favor the White Sox line tonight too, though I don't rate Garland as being close to equal to Oswalt.

OTOH I am a little worried now that I see Pinnacle is charging a steeper price on the 'Stros than all of the "square" books I have accounts with.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

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I don't rate Garland as being close to equal to Oswalt.


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Why not? It's close and Oswalt has edge but it's very close. Chi with Garland starting 21-12 (.636) and Houston with Oswalt starting 25-13 (.657). Oswalt has about a .5 edge in ERA which can be explained by AL/NL differences and Designated Hitter. The biggest difference is Home/Away where Garland is only 11-6 (.647) while Oswalt outstanding 15-3 (.833).

So based on what happen so far this season the results between the two are very very close. Houston and Oswalt do have an edge but not anywhere close to what this line indicates as it is skewed by Oswalts name recognition.

Re: World Series Game 3
 

yeah the line is creeping up now. certainly houston is a favorite in this game but not by anywhere near as much as the line is reflecting.