Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Villain is TAG. Not really a good player, but somewhat thinking. Takes decent lines and is fairly aggressive, but doesn't really tailor his play properly to opponents, not a good hand reader, etc. I'm sure he's a winner in the games, but he also got stacked with open trips no kicker in this session. I'm not sure if it was a situation where I would have called or not since I wasn't really paying attention. So obviously not world class, but not a donk at all either. Numbers are 33/12 or something over 100ish hands. Only goes to showdown around 20% or so. So somewhat weak postflop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($164.52)
UTG ($518.78)
TWP ($398)
Button ($435)
SB ($454)

Preflop: TWP is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">TWP raises to $15</font>, Button calls $15, SB (poster) calls $13, BB calls $11.

Flop: ($60) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">TWP bets $35</font>, Button folds, SB calls $35, BB folds.

Turn: ($130) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $75</font>, TWP...?

What is his hand range and is this a good spot to bluff? If so, how much?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Whats up with the gross flop bet?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

He just check called and then bet out big- it looks like there is a good chance he was trying to slow play a set. You do not even have a re-draw against most of his hands. Time to fold this.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whats up with the gross flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't ask about the flop bet. But for the sake of open discussion (although I'd rather not discuss it in this thread) it is the same type of flop bet I made in my other thread with KQ on a T9x flop. I am underbetting the pot a lot lately and really liking the results. But this is neither here nor there. How about talking about the turn?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

i hope you realize the A makes straight its not an impossible card for him, it's actually pretty likely, i think all your bluff is going to do in this situation is lose you money.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Continuation bet in this hand = bad.

Bluffing the turn = worse.

JMO

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

An ace doesn't make a straight. A 4 makes a straight.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

You just check and fold in this hand? What hand range do you put him on with this turn bet?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

He woke up and likes his hand. Unless you think he is capable of a stone call bluff or a bet on the come, bluffing is a bad idea.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

But what hand did he wake up and like?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You just check and fold in this hand? What hand range do you put him on with this turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he at worst has a set, or he has 44 for the straight...you raised preflop so representing the 4 is crazy....he knows you don't have one. I don't think a bluff folds out anything other than middle pocket pairs that haven't connected with this board.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

dont bluff here

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

my fault TWP mis read the hand.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
dont bluff here

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not? Come on, gimme a hand range with likelihoods...

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You just check and fold in this hand? What hand range do you put him on with this turn bet?

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A set. 44. 77-TT. Ace high. All of which you are behind.

With 3 villians calling preflop, I think this is one of those spots to not continuation bet. I wouldn't be putting any more money in the middle and just move on to the next hand.

As played, I just think you have to give him credit for a hand and fold the turn. Is his hand range strong enough to call a raise from you? I think so. You PFR'd and bet the flop despite there being 3 villians in the hand with you. He has to consider that you have a strong enough hand to do this with, like JJ-AA. He still leads into you. Give him credit for a nh and move on.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
not a good hand reader, etc. I'm sure he's a winner in the games, but he also got stacked with open trips no kicker in this session. a donk at all either. Numbers are

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These guys play their own hands too much, and aren't paying enough attention to yours. Gonna be too tricky to move him off a hand here, plus he will call most turn raises, and you will have to do some weird guesswork on the river to figure out how to push him off his hand again.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
A set. 44. 77-TT. Ace high. All of which you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

A set: 12 combos
44: 6 combos

77-TT: 24 combos
A High: Lots of combos

77-TT and A high all fold to this raise.... so........

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

I'm going against the grain and saying make a close to PSR. I think he check/called to try and take it down on the turn. It's one of my own favorite plays as villain against an opponent that I feel continue bets often, but will fold to resistance. It works as an easy way to win a pot most times when I'm doing this in the right situation. His range here is any piece of the board, and mid PP, set C/r's turn I think.

EDIT: bad hand reader could just as easily mean villain may think "damn he's get 2 pair, hit a straight, or has aces"

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
not a good hand reader.....

....These guys play their own hands too much, and aren't paying enough attention to yours. Gonna be too tricky to move him off a hand here

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. I missed that in the OP. Even more difficult to bluff him here because of that, IMO.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

If I was Villain, I would never play a set like this. I would raise the flop to start building a pot right away. Hands I would take his line are 88-TT. And if you raise me on the turn I will fold without a good read. I'm sure better players would tear me up for this but I don't play high enough for this to happen yet.

I don't think this is a bad spot to bluff if you think he is able fold a small overpair. However I wouldn't pull this move without a solid tableimage.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not a good hand reader.....

....These guys play their own hands too much, and aren't paying enough attention to yours. Gonna be too tricky to move him off a hand here

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That's a good point. I missed that in the OP. Even more difficult to bluff him here because of that, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I think of guys who are not good hand readers, I generally think that they won't think "wow, he made a continuation bet into 3 guys, and the BB is pretty loose so he has to expect a call from him, so he will rarely have ace high here." However, they will still think "Hmm..he probably has a good hand" if I, for instance, push the turn here. There is a spectrum here. I just meant that he wasn't on the high end of the spectrum. He wasn't like a 'I have an ace, I must call to the river!' type...

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

What are you representing with this funky line anyways?

The straight? WHy should this guys who doesn't read hands well think you just hit the straight?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

No. Obviously a big pair.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
But what hand did he wake up and like?

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33-JJ would be my guess and the gut-shot straight draw for the ace scared him (edit -unless he has 44). I think he was in full calling station mode until the straight showed up.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
What are you representing with this funky line anyways?

The straight? WHy should this guys who doesn't read hands well think you just hit the straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of feel that with someone without hand reading abilities you don't have to "represent" anything since villain is likely to take the turn reraise to mean "my measly pair is no good"

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
A set: 12 combos
44: 6 combos

77-TT: 24 combos
A High: Lots of combos

77-TT and A high all fold to this raise.... so........

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If we knew he would fold 77-JJ to a big bet, fine, bluff it. I want a solid read on villian before I try that though. And only Hero's intuition at the table at that moment is going to provide the right answer.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A set: 12 combos
44: 6 combos

77-TT: 24 combos
A High: Lots of combos

77-TT and A high all fold to this raise.... so........

[/ QUOTE ]

If we knew he would fold 77-JJ to a big bet, fine, bluff it. I want a solid read on villian before I try that though. And only Hero's intuition at the table at that moment is going to provide the right answer.

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My intuition at the table is no better than your intuition reading my OP, I don't think. Do you think he folds 77-TT here? What about JJ? What about QQ? How often do you think he has these hands here? Does it make a bluff +EV? I don't know. I know what I thought at the time and I know what I did but I don't know what the EV was.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Frankly, if he calls with 77-TT, your read of him not being a total donk is off, unless you have a simply spectacular image.

I doubt he folds QQ+, and JJ is borderline.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
My intuition at the table is no better than your intuition reading my OP, I don't think. Do you think he folds 77-TT here? What about JJ? What about QQ? How often do you think he has these hands here? Does it make a bluff +EV?

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IMHO, the primary error in the hand is continuation betting in that spot. Bluffguessing now is just compounding that error. 22-66 and even 56s can be seen to be played this way. 77 may call you because of the gutshot and potential that he is ahead. JJ+ should call you. So now you are basically trying to get him to lay down 88-TT. Or laydown a bluff, when it's not likely he is bluffing. The whole hand is -EV for Hero IMO.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

I make his hand range pairs 77-JJ with more probability to 99-JJ. A suited connector like 78 or 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would see the turn.

Since this guy be no dummy I think he smelled blood in the water with your weak CB and has decided to check you out. An excellent spot to fire back with a $150 raise to $225. Tell him he picked on the wrong guy.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

i hate CB in this spot, especially for 1/2 pot, you are going to get called by a lot, and a lot of the time and you have basically only 6 outs to improve

also when he leads into you on the turn, he probably has 77-JJ, and i doubt he will fold an overpair to a raise

he definitely doesnt put you on a 4

but really this is a marginal situation that is easily avoided by not CB-ing this flop with button still to act against 3 other players

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

If he really is weak postflop, then I assume this is a bad spot to bluff. A turn raise from a OOP player usually means bad news. If you c/r, will he actually lay down a hand?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

*Only goes to showdown around 20% or so. So somewhat weak postflop.*

What is a strong postflop showdown %?

Wish I had something to say about whether you should bluff the turn but I'm really unsure.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

You bet the flop into three opponents. He still wants to put $100 (or more) in the pot. King high no good. Next hand.

Next time just check the flop. Someone has a pocket pair and they aren't folding it, especially to that crap bet. Building a bigger pot to steal with nothing is major chip spewing.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Continuation bet is bad. That size CB is worse.

You made a point of saying that hes weak post flop because he gets to showdown 20%. I disagree that this means hes weak, but if you think it makes him weak, then thats all the more reason to fold.

How often do YOU get to showdown?

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

no, you should fold

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

What would you do with an overpair here? How about a set? I thnk you'd be calling here. A raise reeks badly in this spot.

I don't think there's any hand you would raise with here EXCEPT a bluff and the straight - and if villian is thinking they will know this.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
What would you do with an overpair here? How about a set? I thnk you'd be calling here. A raise reeks badly in this spot.

I don't think there's any hand you would raise with here EXCEPT a bluff and the straight - and if villian is thinking they will know this.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is his hand range

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You say he's TAG, but with a VPIP of 33 I think he can have a suited connector, since button is in.

So, he can have some draws (76, 75, 87, 77) some kind of strong hands (56, 53, set, 88-JJ) and some 4's (44, 34, 54, 64) so I fold

A bluff from him seems unlikely

Re: Should I bluff? (Ignore my location, please)
 

Well I guess it's unanimous. No one likes the CB. No one likes the size of the CB. No one likes to bluff the turn. I'm not sure if I should bother trying to justify any of this hand then. Maybe I should just realize the whole thing is bad. Anyways, I pushed and he folded. Pretty sure he had a small overpair. It just SCREAMED to me that he was leading and folding to a raise with his bet size and the fact that he led out instead of waiting for me to commit myself and then check/raising. I figured that he would check/raise a set or a straight. Or if he decided to bet, he would bet more and hope I called with an overpair. It just seemed SO obvious that he was thinking "I might be good, but I don't want to commit myself so I'll bet only 75 into the 130 pot and fold if he pushes." So I pushed. And he folded.