Odds to Chase?
 

This was an interesting hand for me. I limped in CO-1 with 56s and it was raised behind me. The flop left me with a gutshot straight draw. I was about to fold when I realized I had the odds to call, and that continued to the river. Anybody play this any differently?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

I'm getting 18:1 on the call with 4 outs.

Turn: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Again, I'm getting more than 10:1.

River: (16.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though.

On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

Your gutshot is only worth 3-3.5 outs, due to the flush draw.

The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

Gutshots are 10:1 based on card odds on the next cards, but I give it a 7:1 implied odds on a rainbow flop, 3.5 to 1 implied on 2 over cards and gutshot, but then discount it to 14:1 if the flop is two suited. You did you have 18 to 1 on the flop, making it correct to draw technically.. but, you got lucky in my opinion. There were 5 people to act behind you, any of them could have easily value bet raised on a flush draw or any other reason. That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like. I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had.. unless there were other out possibilities, such as an improvement to a backdoor flush draw.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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On the flop, I would probably only call it 3 or 3.5 outs. How good do you feel about your hand if the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits the turn and BB goes crazy? I still think this call is okay though.


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I won't discount the 3rd of a suit quite that much, but even if it is only 3 outs I'm getting more than 14:1.

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On the turn, I am probably done with this hand. The odds are close if you are considering hitting the straight, but with the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe not helping you and possibly losing to a full house even if you hit on the end, I would probably fold. You really need close to 11 to 1 odds of winning when you hit to make a gutshot profitable.

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I'm getting 13.5:1 on the turn. I thought the full house was unlikely so I wasn't worried about it, but maybe I should have considered it. Any one else?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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The board pairing on the turn devalues your hand more than you realize, and I fold.

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How much does it devalue it, a half an out?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

fold the turn. someone could easily raise this behind you and kill your slim odds.

the board pairing isn't a big factor compared to the 4 of flushes discount (at least 50% discount.. maybe 75%-90%) and your relative position troubles.

the board pairing may discount all your outs by 5%.. J4 or an existing boat are not too common. a T on board and I may discount it 15%-20%. i rarely think of specific discounting numbers tho.. i probably should.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

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That would have made your crappy draw even more crappier and trapping you into calling more than you'd like.


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Why wouldn't I like to call if I'm getting the correct odds?

-- Scott

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

I'd fold the flop. The spectre of the preflop raiser raising after me catching me in between has me picking a better spot to chase. You're drawing to a hand that might not win even if you hit.

Re: Odds to Chase?
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn. someone could easily raise this behind you and kill your slim odds.

the board pairing isn't a big factor compared to the 4 of flushes discount (at least 50% discount.. maybe 75%-90%) and your relative position troubles.

the board pairing may discount all your outs by 5%.. J4 or an existing boat are not too common. a T on board and I may discount it 15%-20%. i rarely think of specific discounting numbers tho.. i probably should.

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Weird, the forum isn't showing your entire message. I wonder why?

Anyway, how do you think about someone raising behind you when you face a pot odds situation like I did on the turn? My reasoning was that no one had shown any particular aggression so far, so I thought a raise was unlikely. If it did happen, my pot odds were still going to be close for calling the raise. So I went ahead and called the bet.

-- Scott