QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds.

River: (15.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

You can bet or check this, IMO. Whle you lose some value when you are checkraised on the turn you gain a good portion back when you checkraise a made flush or an 8 on the river (I'm not sure I checkraise a K).

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore, unless all 3 players call. I'd imagine one player will fold here often, so I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.


LLL

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

[/ QUOTE ]
The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Why are you 3-betting the flop? You are not ahead here and the pot is already pumped up for your draw. Unless you 3 bet hoping that you can check a brick on the turn and have everone else check through (which i don't find likely) then I just like a call on the flop.

Turn: C/C. You are not ahead and getting raised here is no good. You have the FD and OESD, but you are still on a draw and you are not cleaning up outs by betting.

River: c/f

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Well played. I think I would of played it the same.

Pre-flop - fine, three bet may thin the field too much and you're OPP.

Flop - your equity is strong probably close to 12 outs (gut shot &amp; flush draw), which will come in over 40% of the time. Betting out is great b/c you trap the field for two or three bets, assuming CO raises. I think a check raise would be better if the ace were an 8, but since I give little value to the Q or J betting out is correct.

Turn - You pick up an open-ended draw and a flush draw. Your equity is still around 33%, so I bet out again.

River - well damn it didn't come through. I think a bluff won't show much profit, so check-fold and wait for the next time.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

[/ QUOTE ]
The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

We do have an equity edge but we also stand to knock people out on the 3 bet as well and thus lose bets on the turn.

I think the 3bet is close, but I only like if everyone is going to stay along for the ride. I think you fold people out facing 2 cold too often here, in which case we lose equity.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~27% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore. I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

I still check in these spots, which is something that concerns me onbly becauese of how transparent my hand is. Against a good player he'll see us pushing on flop and when we slow down on the turn our hand will be obvious once we check. However, getting all that equity is profitable and if we check odds dictate our call. We might not get paid off on the river, but if we build a big enough pot, a good player would have to call w/ any kind of hand, no?

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Turn is a check/call.

River is a check/fold.

It's either call or raise (3-bet) on the flop. Both arguments make sense, so I can't make up my mind.