Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The 4 cannot have helped Dan, so the only hands that beat Gigabet are:

33 - 3 ways
TT - 1 way
JJ - 1 way

There are 18 ways Dan can have QQ++ and 12 ways for a weaker 2 pr. 30 hands that Dan could be playing like this.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ or TT are extremely unlikely. Harrington almost certainly would have raised preflop with these and there are only so many jacks and tens in the deck.

Really 33 is all you are worried about, unless Harrington had 44 and was bluffing on the flop, but got lucky on the turn.

Harrington could have J3, T3, 98, or maybe QQ-AA. He could also be bluffing. Remember the reraise with 62o against Raymer and Arieh at the WSOP.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

I think 89 is really unlikely here. Really, really unlikely.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

You and Dan Harrington are better poker players than I will ever be, but I'm going to come out and say that I think this is a terrible fold. Dan is obviously a tight player, but from having watched him on TV and from reading his books, he certainly knows he has that image, and he certainly takes advantage of it from time to time, especially against players who are aggressive but smart enough to lay down (this is the exact profile of the sort of player one would try the sqeeze play that he advocates against). Gigabet fits that profile exactly.

Even if his range *is* 2 pair or better, it looks like you have a +EV call here, since you beat J3, T3, and T4 (I think this is a possible holding because he could certainly have raised an SB be who completed then bet the flop with second pair).

And I still think there is a chance he's on a complete bluff (not a very big one, but as I said before, it seems he's capable of running a complete bluff against exactly this sort of player in exactly this sort of situation, exactly because when he raises the flop and turn he knows Gigabet will put him on a big hand).

And what do we think he puts gigabet on? Calling the SB and then making a flop overbet when J-high flops? That should look like top pair who doesn't want to give a cheap card, and Dan's thinking might easily be "I think I can push him off top pair if I represent something that can beat it".

Fwiw, I also like the "check the turn" line. The way the hand has played so far, Harrington could also easily put giga on 89, 9Q, or even KQ, and a check the turn fits right in with this and will probably get a bet (and it also should keep the pot size under control since that seems to be a concern).

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Dan could also have a big pair here, which he decided to slowplay before the flop. This is consistent with the subsequent play, in which he raises enough to give Gigabet incorrect odds with a hand like 89.

Based on his book, I think Dan would slowplay AA, KK, and maybe QQ in this spot, but NOT TT or JJ.

Hence, IMO, possible hands for Dan include AA, KK, 33, JT, J3, or T3. With that range, I push the turn.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

On the flop. Is Dan really going to make a very large raise if he is holding 33, JJ, or TT? No way. He is going to slowplay it IMO.

Therefore I think that range you put him on his not that correct and he most likely had a weaker hand than you gave him credit for and knowing that you are a tricky player, he was trying to defend his blinds with either TPTK or less or a draw.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

wow. yougotballsofsteelyougotballsofsteelyougotballsofs teelyougotballsofsteelyougotballsofsteelyougotball sofsteel

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dan could also have a big pair here, which he decided to slowplay before the flop. This is consistent with the subsequent play, in which he raises enough to give Gigabet incorrect odds with a hand like 89.

Based on his book, I think Dan would slowplay AA, KK, and maybe QQ in this spot, but NOT TT or JJ.

Hence, IMO, possible hands for Dan include AA, KK, 33, JT, J3, or T3. With that range, I push the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dan says in his book that he does not like to slow play. I don't think that letting the SB see a flop is a good slow play b/c Dan would have no idea what Giga was holding, so therefore he would not do it... not his style. Dan might slow play pf if the pot was already raised, but AA-TT are not likely at all b/c Dan would raise pf, IMO...

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]


I disagree. Dan does not need a very big hand to make that raise. The actual size of the raise is a little suspicious, It almost looks like Dan is trying to buy a showdown... I think he probably folds a lot of worse hands to a three bet.



[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I say he needs a big hand or a bluff to raise the turn is this: With a good hand a raise
<ul type="square">[*]will chase out weaker hands and air that may fire again on the river [*]has to fold to a 3 bet, when it could in all likelihood see a showdown for less than or equal to the raise amount[*]makes calling a river bet more attractive if Giga calls and fires agains (i.e. ties him more to the hand with a marginal holding)[*]makes pushing a reasonable action, since the pot and stacks will be close in size[/list]Why would he want to build a big pot with a good but not great holding here? That is horrible pot control, and Dan Harrington knows about controling the pot size. He may be on a third or higher level of thinking bluff, but he most certainly is not making this kind of raise with a relatively marginal hand. The raise is big enough to make calling with most draws incorrect, but again, that is not a punishing bet he is likely to make with a hand that could be behind at the moment. So what's a good but not great hand here? Any one pair hand and, really, the weaker two pair hands. Having position allows you to control the pot size, and with stacks as deep as they are at the start of the hand, that is huge.

With his turn bet Dan sais "I know I can play a decent size pot here, but I am willing to play for all my chips." The only way you can call here is if you think he is on a bluff or would say that with a weaker two pair. A semi bluff is very unlikely here, he is denying odds to a draw, but is still giving a good price. If you decide you are ahead here, raising is not so hot since it gives Dan an opportunity to correctly fold his 2-6 outer (if we rule out a semi-bluff), or his no outer if he is on a stone bluff.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, he can have 3 hands with action like this. JT, 33 or J3. KQ is absolutely unthinkable. One I lose to, one I chop with and one I win with. Why is this a tough fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause 50% of your stack size is sitting in the pot, and the combinations out are 12xJ3, 8xJT, and 6x33.

It's basic math and very +cEV and +$EV to push here if you put him on that range, and I suspect his actual range is far wider, as others have argued.

Not every play has to be fancy. Basic blocking and tackling can win lots of $$ also, and this is a perfect example.

Unless you happen to think you can find even higher +EV opportunities later. But that's an old, tired discussion.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Given the way he got here, i don't particuarly love a push.. I'm not convinced Harrington calls with any worse hands.


That said, i'm pretty convinced of what i said earlier, check calling the turn, re-evaluate on river, either block bet or check-call again.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given the way he got here, i don't particuarly love a push.. I'm not convinced Harrington calls with any worse hands.


That said, i'm pretty convinced of what i said earlier, check calling the turn, re-evaluate on river, either block bet or check-call again.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is IMO a much better line for Giga here. (If I already said that in this thread, I am getting this and the MTT threads mixed up in my head.)

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given the way he got here, i don't particuarly love a push.. I'm not convinced Harrington calls with any worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a LAG in a blind vs. blind?

Or, conversely, he'll never fold JT?

Put him to the test. Give him a chance to make a "mistake".

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

I'm not too confident about Harrington making a mistake.

I'll take the safe route.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not too confident about Harrington making a mistake.

I'll take the safe route.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, it's not a mistake in judgement, it's a "mistake" based on imperfect information, which is why I put it in quotes.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

If this was anyone but Gigabet there wouldn't even be a discussion except maybe to post this pic:

http://lightsout.onestop.net/noose.jpg

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

He probably had 72o.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck pwning today!

Yugoslav

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

I agree that I simply cannot find a fold here. Blind v blind battles come down to ace high over king high sometimes, and folding top two against someone who loves to use their image seems -EV. I definitely jam the turn to his raise.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I had 72o, David actually bet 6k on the flop also. I was originally intending on representing diamonds, but the hearts got there instead, so I just had to make it incredibly unprofitable for them to call.

BTW, David spent 15 minutes in the tank, no one called for time, cause everyone at the table understood what an awful predicament I had put him in. He obviously had a big hand, but also understood that to make the call, he could never be wrong. Whole time he was in the tank, I was staring at the felt, with this mantra streaming through my mind. "pleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleased ontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallp leasedontcallpleasedon....)

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands would you push for value there?

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

I don't understand why you would fold this, and really don't understand why it's easy.

Is it because he told you his hand was not that strong that you folded?

I really don't understand. Please explain.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, he can have 3 hands with action like this. JT, 33 or J3. KQ is absolutely unthinkable. One I lose to, one I chop with and one I win with. Why is this a tough fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh.... how about Q8? or 4h 7h? or 57?

or, in the realm of good hands, T4? J4? JQ? i think the small raise could be JQ's bid to get to a cheap showdown / lose a small amount if he's beat. T4 and J4 could be raising for value.

you need a very strong read on someone that they wouldn't raise twice with air or raise once with air and a second time with a draw in order to make that fold. as someone else said, if you were anyone else, everyone would say your play was horrible.

if you think it's the right fold, fine. but saying it's not a hard fold is ridiculous.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He probably had 72o.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck pwning today!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He's probably spurring us all to respond as part of some grand move that will pay off three years from now.

I'm serious.

Any third-party or T.V. evidence that he had JT?

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He probably had 72o.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck pwning today!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He's probably spurring us all to respond as part of some grand move that will pay off three years from now.

I'm serious.

Any third-party or T.V. evidence that he had JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are failing to see that the 72 hand is a completely different hand. Go read the MTT forum.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Congrats Gigabet on your 20th place finish!

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He probably had 72o.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck pwning today!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He's probably spurring us all to respond as part of some grand move that will pay off three years from now.

I'm serious.

Any third-party or T.V. evidence that he had JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are failing to see that the 72 hand is a completely different hand. Go read the MTT forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not.

I hate you.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The 4 cannot have helped Dan, so the only hands that beat Gigabet are:

33 - 3 ways
TT - 1 way
JJ - 1 way

There are 18 ways Dan can have QQ++ and 12 ways for a weaker 2 pr. 30 hands that Dan could be playing like this.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ or TT are extremely unlikely. Harrington almost certainly would have raised preflop with these and there are only so many jacks and tens in the deck.

Really 33 is all you are worried about, unless Harrington had 44 and was bluffing on the flop, but got lucky on the turn.

Harrington could have J3, T3, 98, or maybe QQ-AA. He could also be bluffing. Remember the reraise with 62o against Raymer and Arieh at the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised no one has suggested Qh9h.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He probably had 72o.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck pwning today!

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. He's probably spurring us all to respond as part of some grand move that will pay off three years from now.

I'm serious.

Any third-party or T.V. evidence that he had JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are failing to see that the 72 hand is a completely different hand. Go read the MTT forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me neither. I caught the reference.

But I don't hate you.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

It was a great laydown since Harrington had 82o.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

maybe he would have gotten 1st if he didnt let harrington bully him

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

This is a terrible fold. Period.

You people need to realize that folding top two in this situation IS TERRIBLE NO MATTER THE PLAYERS.

Even the Rockest of players will double-raise here with a lesser two pair.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Both this and the 72o hand (which I don't think is anywhere near what you really had) are completely retarded, so congratulations. Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one? Instead it's obscure and intensely questionable plays designed to make it look like your game is so far beyond the rest of ours that we can't possibly fathom it. Have you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
BHave you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?

[/ QUOTE ]

The mighty Gigabet has no use for hands such as AA.

Actually, if you think about it, Giga's Shania is through the roof!!

Yugoslav

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Both this and the 72o hand (which I don't think is anywhere near what you really had) are completely retarded, so congratulations. Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one? Instead it's obscure and intensely questionable plays designed to make it look like your game is so far beyond the rest of ours that we can't possibly fathom it. Have you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?

[/ QUOTE ]

THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES!!!

I think its about time someone manned up and said this, thank you Pax.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both this and the 72o hand (which I don't think is anywhere near what you really had) are completely retarded, so congratulations. Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one? Instead it's obscure and intensely questionable plays designed to make it look like your game is so far beyond the rest of ours that we can't possibly fathom it. Have you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?

[/ QUOTE ]

THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES!!!

I think its about time someone manned up and said this, thank you Pax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of his players are highly read depedent obviously Gigabet has much more information about this hand than anyone posting on this forum. He felt it was the right fold, and it may have been, it may not have been. Obviously it is an unorthodox laydown and that is why he is posting it, however it is hard to give a good opinion when your Gigabet had much more info then you.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he do that? Maybe you like seeing endless posts asking about how to play AK after the flop when it misses, or whether 66 is a good push 5 handed, but a lot of people don't.

When I see a post like this or his "72o" push, I don't rush right out and try it in my $22. But it does give me a good reason to think about poker in more depth than I normally would. Whether I agree with the line or not doesn't make the post and reasoning behind it any more or less valuable to me. I don't understand why it would for you.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Yeah, those are some pretty interesting hands to talk about.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

Im still thinking dan could have KQ hearts or Jx hearts, if the flopped ten is a heart as opposed to the one in Gigs hand. I dont see why these are not in his range. Great hand tho.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Both this and the 72o hand (which I don't think is anywhere near what you really had) are completely retarded, so congratulations. Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one? Instead it's obscure and intensely questionable plays designed to make it look like your game is so far beyond the rest of ours that we can't possibly fathom it. Have you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES!!!

I think its about time someone manned up and said this, thank you Pax.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is your choice to read the hand histories that I post, and it is your choice to believe the info that I post in the hand history. I have no reason to lie about my holdings, I do have a complete HH that I posted of a step 5 higher that I played, where you can see all of my holdings(or maybe I changed all of my hand holdings in the txt file, I did post it 15 minutes after it finished, I had plenty of time.) If you reread that hh of the step 5 higher, and you choose to believe the info contained, I do not think that you will have a hard time believing that I had 72o in the hand against dave and eric, nor JT here.

I did write in one of the previous posts that this was an easy fold. That was supposed to be obvious sarcasm.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

are you regretting this now?

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Both this and the 72o hand (which I don't think is anywhere near what you really had) are completely retarded, so congratulations. Why is it you never post hands where the action is, you know, the right one? Instead it's obscure and intensely questionable plays designed to make it look like your game is so far beyond the rest of ours that we can't possibly fathom it. Have you ever done something normal, like open with AA, or fold 83o?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to read these you know? Personally, I find it interesting to read hands played by a person who crushes the highest SNGs available online and who spends time / plays with the best tournament players in the world.

Re: Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.
 

I should clarify what i meant by the "emperors new clothes" reference. I refer to some of the best *players* on this forum being built up into deity standing (by others) to a point where they become "unquestionable"...in that chumps like me and 95% of the forum are intimidated to question a line or choice of posting material. Much akin to that fable i referenced. It want intended as an attack on anyone, just a commentary on the caste system of STTF.

The implication was not that you are B.S.ing with fabricated HHs. I do not understand where you got that from, nor why you got overly defensive there? Or do I?

Also man, realize that your posts are terrific because they provoke thoughts that few others do...and also incredibly frustrating because they usually dont give the line of thought "bridge" to get us understanding exactly why a play is best.