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-   -   55 SB hand (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403676)

McGahee 12-22-2005 08:36 PM

55 SB hand
 
Reads: UTG is 34/19/1.2 - pretty straightforward postflop player and running hot.
CO is 38/8/1.8 and mixes it up halfway well postflop, though I wouldn't consider him 'good'. I've seen him C/R the turn once w/ the goods, and another time he check/folded the river. He'll bet draws or ragged turns into the PFR, but he's also open limped on the button, and coldcalled w/ QQ PF - kinda hard to get a handle on.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Meh?

jt1 12-22-2005 08:40 PM

Re: 55 SB hand
 
The river was good.

I don't like the preflop call. You won't win this UI very often oop and you don't have the odds to play it for a set.

On the flop, if anything you want to bet and hope for a raise or just c/f.

On the turn, there isn't any reason to think that CO doesn't have you beat.

McGahee 12-22-2005 08:50 PM

Re: 55 SB hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
The river was good.

I don't like the preflop call. You won't win this UI very
often oop and you don't have the odds to play it for a set.

On the flop, if anything you want to bet and hope for a raise or just c/f.

On the turn, there isn't any reason to think that CO doesn't have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, I cut out the only part you liked to hopefully get better replies (not that yours sucks).

PF I thought was a no-brainer from a 19 PFR player - granted I don't have relative position to protect my hand.

I don't see UTG raising the flop w/ overcards so I wasn't really feeling a flop bet.

On the turn, it's not like I think I have CO beat 80% of the time or anything, but I think I do more often than rarely. I'm not sure what the cutoff is supposed to be for this play to be +ev though.

jt1 12-22-2005 09:29 PM

Re: 55 SB hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see UTG raising the flop w/ overcards so I wasn't really feeling a flop bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I. I vote c/f

[ QUOTE ]
PF I thought was a no-brainer from a 19 PFR player - granted I don't have relative position to protect my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to dodge as many as 18 cards. You're playing for set value and you don't have the odds nor the right opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, it's not like I think I have CO beat 80% of the time or anything, but I think I do more often than rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats suggest loose passive. Your description suggest the same thing. Just because he bets ragged boards doesn't mean he doesn't have anything. There's a good chance he's on a draw, but he has 15 outs to beat you. Theres also a good chance he has a better pp. And then ofcourse, he may have a Jack or a nine. You're either a bit ahead or way behind.

McGahee 12-22-2005 09:45 PM

Re: 55 SB hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
His stats suggest loose passive. Your description suggest the same thing. Just because he bets ragged boards doesn't mean he doesn't have anything. There's a good chance he's on a draw, but he has 15 outs to beat you. Theres also a good chance he has a better pp. And then ofcourse, he may have a Jack or a nine. You're either a bit ahead or way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I said he bet ragged boards, I should've clarified that I raised PF, and he bet into me on the flop &amp; turn on a K55x board, then check/folded the river. He check/folded another river after C/R'ing the turn.
I also thought there was a chance he could fold a 9 given that he wasn't a big postflop calling station.

I agree that I'm either slightly ahead or way behind. I thought it might be worth it to increase my equity by folding UTG's likely OC's even if CO has me beat more often than not.
We obviously disagree about how often I'm ahead, but I guess I'm wondering how often I have to be ahead to make this play since I suck at math.


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