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-   -   Looking for some intermediate advice (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=401806)

lane mcbride 12-20-2005 12:06 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
playing in loose games such as pokerroom requires a different set of skills. you need to learn how to eliminate opponents, pump your draws for value, and call in some spots on third where you typically would raise. I would guess you are overplaying your starting hands against too many players. also, in loose games, you can limp with some more mediocre hands if they are live

read 7 card stud for advanced players... especially the section on loose games

12-20-2005 12:13 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Being unclear I will reformulate, what I just wrote

The we might just as well play chess remark is to be seen in this light:

In chess there is some, but far less variance than in poker, so if there is the slightest difference in strength between to players, it quickly show and the worse player gets spanked (you do not need a sample of 10000 games, a mere 10 games might suffice as a significant sample .. a 100 games is more than enough)

As a consequence of this, there is zero money to be won in the world of chess if you are not a worldclass player. (That is the price for not having big variance, no money)


But the question of this post is, have to minimize variance ??

Originally it came as an, How to minimize variance in stud ... but I more wonder, which game to play to minimize Variance Hold'em or Stud ?? (And yes there is the good old stud8 answer to this as well, which brings us to the next question. Most tend to agree that hi/lo games are harder on Fish, do they move on quickly and just leave the regulars or ?? (I haven't played that much stud8 as you know, but am considering giving the 2/4$ games on party a shot)

Roland 12-20-2005 12:13 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
Like getting paired with an opponent who got roaring drunk the night before.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know Andy plays chess.

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you just happen to make the right moves by accident (this happens to me ALOT and I'm quite strong)...

[/ QUOTE ]

You run g00d.

[ QUOTE ]
"Variance sucks and then you die".

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to die.

dandy_don 12-20-2005 12:16 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
read 7 card stud for advanced players... especially the section on loose games

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, join us next month as a portion of the stud forum plans to read and discuss 7CSFAP.

Link

frappeboy 12-20-2005 12:34 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
Originally it came as an, How to minimize variance in stud ... but I more wonder, which game to play to minimize Variance Hold'em or Stud ?? (And yes there is the good old stud8 answer to this as well, which brings us to the next question. Most tend to agree that hi/lo games are harder on Fish, do they move on quickly and just leave the regulars or ?? (I haven't played that much stud8 as you know, but am considering giving the 2/4$ games on party a shot)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I think I can answer this question. Omaha 8/b and Stud 8/b have the lowest variance of limit games. I also think that limit hold'em has less variance than stud unless the game is really aggressive with lots of bets going into the pot preflop, in which case it has about the same variance as stud.

The game that has the least variance of all is NL hold'em, simply because you can control the odds you give your opponent and charge a weak player huge amounts when hes on a draw, this increase your win rate by a huge margin and the larger your win rate the smaller your variance.

You can control, to some degree, how much variance you have when playing stud. You do this by folding in marginal situations. You may lose a little bit off your win rate by playing this way, but your standard deviation will be much lower. But if you're the type of player who will go on major tilt when losing, than you actually SAVE money in the long run even though you lose money right now. This is because you'll have less swings and therefore go on tilt LESS. Also, if you have any doubts about how well you can play in marginal situations, you will save money by playing this way.

12-20-2005 01:01 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Hey Worm,

Yup, I know what you mean.

Just coming down from a 4-week heater that came to a screeching halt last Friday. I swear, over this period, I had not one losing day and, at any point, I was down 25 BB max which would invariably be corrected by monsters or calling stations.

Of course, since Friday, I'm down close to 100BB.

Somebody recently posted something to the effect that when things are good for a while, you start believing that you are actually good, you are in control, you understand the villains. And then within a few sessions it feels like the whole house of cards is crumbling.

To me, when on a heater, I get more aggressive and it works. I get to push people out of pots. Of course, some of the plays are just plain wrong. This compounds the problem when the cards turn bad. Now, after a few days of steady on-going losses, I notice a reverse effect. I feel compelled to throw away hands that I should probably call with. I've been pushed out of pots that shoulda been mine! I'm less willing to wait till 5h to raise. That sort of stuff.

Anyway, these few things keep me going:
- It's happened to me before and it will swing back.
- It seems to me that after a few losing sessions the regulars become much more loose against me. When the cards turn, there'll be good opportunity.
- I try to accept it. When I take the beats, I try to keep a sense of perspective. If I play enough hands, my K high straight flush will one day be beat (and prob'ly KQJT9xx vs xxTJQKA).
- I try to be more selective of the tables and I try to recognize when I'm playing bad. The idea is to walk away. I hope one day to be so wise.
- When on a losing streak, I tend to analyze my play much more. I think this is good.

SA125 12-20-2005 01:22 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
It turned into 7 straight days of decent profit. In the past 4 days, I have just gotten hosed.

[/ QUOTE ]

You ran good for 7 straight days? And complaining? I routinely start a session by going 100-250 hands without a win. Happens about every 3rd one. That means I'm sitting at a table where, on average, I should win 1 out of every 6 or 8 hands and go 250 straight with 0. I start a session with the deck hitting me in the face about every 10 sessions. Half of those times there's no money in the pot and I'm dragging ante's with rolled up A's. I've never run good for more than 2 sessions ever, and I mean ever. Cue the violins and pass the tissues.

Having said that, stud is way more of a suckout game than holdem and has more variance. The number typically thrown around is 300 BB's to play a limit comfortably. I think that's low for stud. I routinely go 4 sessions in a row dropping 25-50 BB's. Ran good for 7 sessions in a row? You're lucky.

12-20-2005 01:33 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
I routinely start a session by going 100-250 hands without a win. Happens about every 3rd one.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first time at a 3/6 table, I lost 97 hands in a row. I still wince at it. 250 hands? Regularly? Surely, you can't be serious???

[ QUOTE ]
I should win 1 out of every 6 or 8 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm winning at that rate, I am doing great. Typical is 1 out of 10.

blumpkin22 12-20-2005 01:39 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
Stud is easy. I've never had a losing session. You should probably just quit the game.

dandy_don 12-20-2005 01:45 PM

Re: Looking for some intermediate advice
 
[ QUOTE ]
My first time at a 3/6 table, I lost 97 hands in a row. I still wince at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Likewise at the $2/$4 table a few months back that sent me back to the $1/$2 games for a couple months.


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