Re: AKo turn decision
 

KDawg,

what do you think about what I wrote as far as if we are successful getting it HU, it will often be against a better hand

Re: AKo turn decision
 

I really don't think betting the flop is a good idea if you're not planning on taking a free card UI after the entire field stays.

Re: AKo turn decision
 

A high is NOT winning this pot enough for a post flop bet to be profitable...i may, may bet the turn but that would be it, especially since it elminated NO ONE. likely draws are out there, flush, straight, etc., maybe even a top pair held by one of the blinds. regardless i put very little more money in the pot. its not worth it.

Re: AKo turn decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
KDawg,

what do you think about what I wrote as far as if we are successful getting it HU, it will often be against a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. A flush draw isn't folding here nearly ever, it's very likely that we can get it HU with them.

Re: AKo turn decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
A high is NOT winning this pot enough for a post flop bet to be profitable...i may, may bet the turn but that would be it, especially since it elminated NO ONE. likely draws are out there, flush, straight, etc., maybe even a top pair held by one of the blinds. regardless i put very little more money in the pot. its not worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for backing this up with reasoning and refuting the reasons already presented in this thread.

Re: AKo turn decision
 

so of all the times we get it HU, you think a flush draw s the most likely holding? fair enough. I think we're trying too hard to put opponent on a hand we can beat. In addition, if there is a flush draw out there, someone also has to not have a pair

considering we will be beaten very often when called, and the flush draw will either hit a pair or his draw another 3rd of the time (discount because sometimes he will hit your pair too) and that's a really big parlay considering everyone called the flop.

would you bet against 5 opponents?

Re: AKo turn decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
so of all the times we get it HU, you think a flush draw s the most likely holding? fair enough. I think we're trying too hard to put opponent on a hand we can beat. In addition, if there is a flush draw out there, someone also has to not have a pair

considering we will be beaten very often when called, and the flush draw will either hit a pair or his draw another 3rd of the time (discount because sometimes he will hit your pair too) and that's a really big parlay considering everyone called the flop.

would you bet against 5 opponents?

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying, but it's been my experience that you can get enough people to fold here frequently enough for this to be profitable.

Don't forget that if things work out for us, we expect to make 6-7BB's for the price of 1. That easily compensates us for the time when we bet and get 3 callers and don't win the showdown.

I'm not saying a pair folds all the time, it certainly doesn't. But I do think LP-P's will fold weak pairs here occasionally, and when they do, we profit.

I think if we bet and are called in 1 place, it's about equal probability of being a flush draw and being a pair.

As far as the flush draw goes, we pretty much need to dodge 15 cards, which we'll do 70% of the time.

Don't forget that if we bet this river and called, it's vey rare that we'll get donk-bet on the river. So we do get the benifit of seeing a showdown, and it's not all that uncommon for our hand to be best even against 2 opponents. (I take down the pot approximately 10-20% of the time I get to a showdown like this against 2 villians).

I wouldn't bet against 5 for the exact reasons people don't want to bet against 3 -- We have very little fold equity with that large of a field, and it's much more likely that theres a hand better than a pair out there.